Paraguay and Australia will face off on Friday (5:00 a.m.) at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, in a match that will determine which of the two teams will secure direct qualification to the knockout stage of the 2026 World Cup.

The two rivals are tied at 3 points after the first two matches in Group 4, with Australia in second place and Paraguay in third due to a better goal difference. Turkey has already been eliminated, which guarantees both teams at least a spot in the group’s top three; however, second place remains up for grabs and is particularly important, as it grants direct qualification to the “Round of 32.”

Paraguay managed to bounce back from its heavy 4-1 loss to the United States in the opener, defeating Turkey 1-0. Matías Galarza’s early goal just two minutes into the game proved enough to secure the three points for Gustavo Alfaro’s team, despite playing with ten men from the end of the first half due to Miguel Almirón’s foolish red card.

The South Americans know that only a win will secure their direct qualification, as a draw would allow Australia to retain the advantage on goal difference. Paraguay has been competitive lately, with five wins in its last seven games, though most of its victories have come by narrow margins.

On the other hand, Australia got off to an ideal start with a 2-0 win over Turkey, but was then unable to hold off the United States, suffering a 2-0 defeat. Although they no longer have a chance to top the group, Tony Popovic’s team still holds its fate in its own hands, as even a draw would be enough to secure its place in the round of 32.

History is on the side of the “Socceroos,” who remain undefeated in the five previous meetings between the two nations. In fact, in their most recent match, in October 2010, Australia won 1-0.

Given that a draw favors the Australians and Paraguay must take risks to secure a win, the match is expected to be highly exciting. Both teams are just one result away from advancing and must effectively manage the pressure of a match that is essentially a knockout game.

Probable starting lineup:

Paraguay: Gil – Cáceres, Gustavo Gómez, Alderete, Alonso – Velásquez, Kubas, Diego Gómez, Galarza – Pita, Enciso.

Australia: Beach – Circati, Sutard, Berges – Italiano, O’Neill, Okon-Engstler, Boss – Volpato, Touré, Irankunda.

*photo source: AP