Vladimir Putin is going through one of the most difficult periods (perhaps the most difficult) of his 22 years (14 of them consecutive) in the Russian presidency. The pressure in recent months has been intense, as Ukraine—from the start of the invasion of its territory in February 2022 through the end of 2025— has learned its lessons the hard way and has now gone on the counteroffensive.

Strikes in and around Moscow, near the Kremlin, in St. Petersburg, and in Crimea. Critical energy infrastructure is being reduced to ashes, energy production has ground to a halt, and citizens are lining up at gas stations to fill up their tanks.

At the same time, Putin acknowledges the difficulties, admits the energy crisis, and sends messages to Washington—which is preoccupied with Iran— to take him back into consideration so they can return to the negotiating table.

Whispers about the 74-year-old Russian president’s resilience are growing louder, and his political future seems to have begun to concern even those involved in gambling! In this context, an anonymous user reportedly bet $400,000 on the crypto-betting platform Polymarket, predicting that Vladimir Putin will not be president of Russia by the end of 2026.

This particular bet, first reported by NBC News, was placed by an anonymous account on Polymarket with the username “ZnotluvuiSamez” and a profile picture of the Ukrainian flag. The user has placed numerous bets related to Russia and Ukraine, but by far the largest is a $409,000 wager on “Yes” in response to the question: “Will Putin step down from the Russian presidency by December 31, 2026?” In fact, the latest bet was worth $50,000 and was placed early Thursday morning.

The bet goes against the general sentiment in the market, as bettors believe that, despite current conditions, there is only a 12% chance that Putin will lose the Russian presidency before 2030.

According to NBC News, the mysterious bettor could win up to $2.5 million if the bet pays off.

His second-largest wager is for $61,000 and is based on the prediction that Ukraine will retake Crimea by the end of the year — a scenario the market also prices at just a 12% probability.

The mysterious player appears to have joined Polymarket in April of this year, and his account is linked to a profile on X that has no posts.

According to Forbes, however, Putin is headed for a fall.

Putin is facing existential problems on many levels.

The current state of the war is becoming increasingly burdensome for the Kremlin, undermining the Russian president’s legitimacy, while at the same time, domestic discontent is growing, as evidenced by a viral video of a Russian military blogger who warned of a mutiny.

Public outrage is growing due to forced conscription and shortages, while historical parallels with previous regime changes caused by failed wars are coming back into focus. The elites, now fearing for their own safety, may turn against him, even raising the possibility of internal conflict among Putin’s security forces.

The scenarios outlined in a Forbes analysis regarding Putin’s downfall range from a swift assassination to a show trial, with potential catalysts including new Ukrainian attacks, internal unrest, or a withdrawal of support from China. His downfall is predicted to occur within the next three years.

Putin is in a critical position on many fronts. Due to continuous Ukrainian drone attacks in recent months, Crimea has been virtually cut off from fuel supplies. Images of lines of cars stretching for many kilometers as people try to leave the peninsula in the middle of the tourist season paint a particularly negative picture for Moscow.

The Russians now have one last key supply route: the Kerch Bridge, a structure of immense symbolic importance that has been repeatedly attacked but—for now—remains standing. The trucks carrying fuel across the bridge are a particularly vulnerable target, as a successful strike could cause a massive explosion. And, according to sources within the Ukrainian intelligence services, this possibility is gaining traction by the day.

The military adventure that Moscow launched in Ukraine 4.5 years ago may be starting to look like a disaster. Putin cannot avoid the toll it is taking, and now that he can no longer control even the grim images circulating everywhere, the consequences are multiplying and the countdown has begun.

Viral videos and a veteran’s threats

A few days ago, Russian military blogger Alexander Lunin, a veteran of the invasion of Ukraine, posted a video in which he warned of a mutiny and demanded a personal televised meeting with Putin.

He claimed that high-ranking officials had revealed secrets to him, which he needed to convey to the Russian president; the video garnered approximately 11 million views.

He then posted a second video with a more conciliatory tone, but this was followed by another video from a group of soldiers who supported him and threatened to turn their weapons against officers who, they claimed, were mistreating them.

Lunin’s fate was, in all likelihood, sealed (he was arrested and is currently in prison) from the moment he decided to post those videos; yet this case brings back vivid memories of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny.

At the same time, videos of Ukrainian strikes on military facilities, energy infrastructure, and fuel depots near Moscow as well as in remote regions of Russia are constantly circulating. At the same time, images are circulating of female influencers complaining that they cannot find fuel for their cars, as well as videos of men on Russian streets who are allegedly being forcibly conscripted into the army.

And what Forbes points out in its analysis is that, historically, regime change and the collapse of Russian imperial power have occurred twice in the last century as a result of devastating wars: World War I and the invasion of Afghanistan.

As pressure on Putin mounts, the elites around him are beginning to think about their own survival and are turning to figures like Lunin to voice their fears. Society, for its part, can draw only two conclusions: either that Putin is to blame, or that the people around him are isolating him from reality and preventing him from rectifying the situation.

The “Ceaușescu scenario” and the sham trial

How Putin’s reign will end depends on what those who rise up against him seek to achieve. According to Forbes, a swift removal and a subsequent “battle” for power would neutralize the risk of a backlash from his loyalists, but it would rule out another option: a show trial in which he would be held solely responsible for the failures of his administration. This would allow the system and the rest of the elite to remain in power.

This could be described as the “Ceaușescu scenario,” when the Romanian dictator of the Cold War era was swiftly executed along with his wife by the military, while many officials from the old regime continued to play a role in the new system.

Such scenarios take on greater significance following the recent mysterious death of Sergei Ivanov, a longtime ally and friend of Putin’s, on June 26 at the age of 73. Ivanov had been considered a potential successor for years. He was one of the few figures at the pinnacle of power who had enough influence to voice criticism from time to time.

The Kremlin quickly announced his death, without specifying the cause. Ivanov, who had been close to Putin since the 1970s, had at times been removed from official positions of power but retained strong connections within the FSB.

Such incidents create problems for Putin. When potential rivals disappear, others may feel they are in danger and take preemptive action against him.

With paranoia mounting around him, anything could set off a chain of events: new high-profile Ukrainian attacks on Moscow, food shortages, separatist uprisings in regions such as Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, or Chechnya; a Ukrainian operation in Crimea.

The “China” Factor

Above all, however, is China’s stance. If Beijing decides that a weakened Putin is a liability to its interests, it could contribute to his downfall in various ways: by curtailing aid for the war or by changing its stance toward Siberia.

China is already significantly curtailing its support for the Russian economy and has refused to finance the Siberia 2 pipeline, which would have connected it directly to Russia.

Putin’s days, Forbes notes, are numbered, and if the current trajectory continues or worsens, he is likely to be ousted within the next three years…

Source: Proto Thema