The Cyprus issue appears to be heading toward a radical overhaul, as a draft agreement being worked on by the United Nations seeks to end a 52-year stalemate, by proposing a “watered-down” federal solution that accommodates Turkish demands for two separate states.

According to a report in the British newspaper The Independent, the UN Secretary-General’s personal envoy, María Ángela Olguín, refers to a strategy of “creative ambiguity” to bridge the gap between the two sides. The goal is to create a structure that the Greek Cypriot side can interpret as a “federation” and the Turkish Cypriot side as a “confederation,” moving away from the strict federal model of previous years.

The Key Pillars of the Plan

The details revealed by The Independent point to a clear shift toward a more “flexible” solution within the European Union. The plan currently being drafted calls for the creation of two constituent states with political equality, but with a drastic reduction in shared competences:

• Governance & Powers: Most day-to-day governance will be exercised autonomously by the two states. Only a limited number of responsibilities that cannot be handled separately will remain within the central structure.
• Joint Cabinet: A flexible structure of 5 or 6 ministries is proposed (Foreign Affairs, Defense, Interior/Citizenship, Finance, and European Affairs).
• Rotating Presidential Council: Leadership by a council under the two leaders is being considered, with a 2-to-1 or 3-to-1 ratio in favor of the Greek Cypriot side.
• Parliamentary Representation: Instead of a directly elected federal parliament, a supreme council composed of Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot members of parliament is proposed.
• Veto: At least one decisive vote is reserved for a Turkish Cypriot minister in the Council of Ministers to ensure political equality, an issue that is certain to be a source of intense controversy.
• Territorial Compromise: As a trade-off for recognition and autonomy, the Turkish Cypriot side will be asked to cede territory, with the enclosed and uninhabited area of Varosia being the focal point.

Security, Guarantees, and the “NATO Model”

On the critical issue of security, the draft proposal introduces a plan to replace the 1960 system of guarantees (Greece, Turkey, Great Britain) with a NATO formula, which could allow for a small multinational presence on the island.

The issue remains contentious, as Nicosia insists on the complete withdrawal of Turkish troops, which it characterizes as occupation forces, while the Turkish Cypriot leadership presents their continued presence as a necessary security guarantee.

Road Map

The UN is proposing a transitional period of two to three years with specific, phased steps:

1. Immediate commencement of territorial returns, with priority given to Varosia.
2. Gradual implementation of the “three Ds” for the Turkish Cypriot side (Direct trade, Direct flights, Direct contacts).
3. Simultaneous lifting of Turkish restrictions and opening of Turkish ports.

This formula is directly linked to the energy agenda (natural gas exploitation) and EU-Turkey relations (upgrading the Customs Union), integrating the Cyprus issue into a broader package of EU-Turkey agreements.

“The prospect of an agreement would be extremely important for the United Kingdom, given the status of the two Sovereign British Bases in Cyprus, which play a decisive role in addressing problems and crises in the Middle East,” notes the British newspaper, which refers to the 1974 Turkish invasion as an “intervention.”

As the article characteristically states: “María Ángela Olguín is working on an agreement flexible enough for both sides to claim they achieved what they sought,” adding that “She hopes the structure will be such that Greek Cypriots can call it a federation and Turkish Cypriots a confederation, bridging the gap through deliberate ‘constructive ambiguity.’”

Denial from Nicosia

The article, however, also includes the position of the Republic of Cyprus. Specifically, the Deputy High Commissioner of Cyprus in London, Spyros Miltiadis, states: “To the best of my knowledge, there is no official UN proposal in which any side has been asked to respond. The ideas circulating appear to be more speculation than a specific proposal or plan. Any substantive progress must come through the established process under the UN and within the agreed-upon framework of the United Nations.”