The prediction that the intense regional competition that would arise following the war in Gaza and the upheavals it brought about, as well as the war in Iran and the overall realignment of the balance of power it would cause, would affect Turkey and Israel has now been confirmed following the latest developments.
Turkey, capitalizing on its geostrategic position, its strong defense capabilities, and its “tactical neutrality” diplomacy in all major crises—and now enjoying President Trump’s favor—believes it has a unique opportunity to fulfill T. Erdogan to make the country a great and hegemonic regional power.
ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΑΡΘΡΑ
The biggest obstacle to this effort is the other most powerful country in the region, Israel, which is certainly locked in a stalemate with the Palestinians and, now facing a very powerful front against it, it is determined to risk everything to avoid being “surrounded” by hostile countries that have the support of regional powers such as Turkey.
By demonizing Israel, T. Erdogan has carved out a powerful role that no longer appeals only to Muslim Arab countries, but also to Western public opinion, which is particularly sensitive to issues concerning Gaza, as well as to Israel’s aggression, as manifested in Tel Aviv’s multifaceted struggle against extremist Palestinian organizations and groups. The Palestinian cause and Gaza were exploited by the Turkish President to advance Turkey’s narrative as the protector of the Palestinians and to reinforce the country’s leading position in the Muslimworld.
Overnight airstrikes hit the runway of the Abu al-Duhur military airbase in eastern Idlib, northwestern Syria.
AdvertisementSyrian state television, citing a military source, said eight Israeli strikes targeted the runway and storage facilities. No casualties were reported. Israel declined to… pic.twitter.com/wcc2y8aq0T
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The Informant (@theinformant_x) August 18, 2026
The “red line” Turkey crossed
However, the confrontation between the two countries extends even further, as the Turkish leadership, with statements and manifestos about the “liberation of Jerusalem,” has crossed the red line, aligning itself with those forces that have made the annihilation of Israel their rallying cry.
The situation that has developed over the past three years is leading to a no-holds-barred rivalry between the two countries, which are the United States’ closest allies in the region and are also the two most militarily powerful countries in the Middle East.
Israel has never looked favorably upon the expansion of Turkey’s influence in neighboring Syria, as it did not want the Iranian sphere of influence—which for years had posed a vital threat to its very existence—to be replaced in Syria by Turkish influence.
Turkey’s occupation of a large portion of northern Syria served as an initial “wake-up call” for Israel, which saw Assad’s overthrow accompanied by the rise to power of the former jihadist leader Al-Saara, who, with Ankara’s support, has managed to gain acceptance not only from the Arab world but, more importantly, from the EU and the U.S.
The possibility of upgrading Syria’s military capabilities through its strategic relationship with Ankara, as well as the implementation of the defense agreement between the two countries, constitutes yet another red line for Israel.
Was the bombing of the Abu al-Duhur base a coincidence?
The bombing of the Abu al-Duhur base, just 200 miles from Israeli territory and just 80 km from the Turkish-Syrian border, did not come out of the blue. Turkey had a military presence in northern Syria, but at the same time had undertaken to assist in the restructuring of the Syrian armed forces and Syrian air defense.
Unconfirmed reports suggest that the targeting of this specific base was not random and was not intended solely to destroy certain facilities. In the scenarios Turkey had considered in recent months to break the deadlock over the S-400s (the disposal of which is a prerequisite for joining the F-35 program), had also considered transferring them to Syria to bolster its air defense, primarily against Israel.
The Israelis have categorically stated that they will not accept foreign forces—much less Turkey—having a military presence in Syria. The bombing of the Abu al-Duhur base sent a strong message, especially given reports that this base could serve as the official home for the S-400s and other air defense systems.
The two countries are also at odds in the Horn of Africa, as well as on the major issue of new energy transport routes and the major corridors, with Turkey attempting to derail projects such as IMEC, which bypasses it by turning Israel and Greece into hubs.
Turkey has been working hard all this time, and it is certainly aided by Israel’s unchecked actions in Gaza, the West Bank, as well as in Lebanon and Syria, in order to further expose Israel and thereby undermine the functional relationship that Arab countries have established with Israel under the Abraham Accords, and to prevent Saudi Arabia from joining these agreements. Such a move would ultimately isolate Turkey itself, and Ankara wants to prevent this at all costs.
The Mecca Trilateral Alliance was yet another alarming signal for Israel, as it brought together the three major Sunni powers.
It is no coincidence that, in the context of this rivalry, Turkey frequently and publicly turns against Greece and Cyprus, not only in an effort to smear the two countries for cooperating with “genocidal” Israel, but also by now viewing them at the strategic level not only as allies of Israel but as its “forward outposts,” aimed at Turkey and the Turkish presence in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Israel is also observing and taking—perhaps preemptively—measures against Turkey’s attempt, with the support and guidance of U.S. Ambassador T. Barak, to exploit the rift that has emerged in recent months between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu and to fill the void itself.
Support from Trump
In Gaza, Washington is pressing for acceptance of President Trump’s plan for Gaza, for a halt to attacks on Lebanon, and for military intervention in Syria, while at the same time the Americans fully support the Al-Sarraa regime. Furthermore, in Israel, President Trump’s repeated support for Turkey’s return to the F-35 program has been noted.
The two closest U.S. allies in the region, despite contacts between their intelligence agencies, have been unable to establish even a tenuous channel of communication or create a conflict-avoidance mechanism (as Israel had successfully done with Russia regarding Syrian territory) in order to prevent an unintended but decisive military confrontation.
Any agreement in the foreseeable future is extremely difficult, as their differences have become ideologically entrenched. The current confrontation may also be exploited by M. Netanyahu for electoral purposes, but the causes run deeper, and bridging the divide will be difficult even if a new government is formed in Israel after the October elections.
The U.S. Is Maintaining a Balance
The U.S. is currently maintaining a balance between the two allies, despite the extremely pro-Turkish stance of U.S. Ambassador T. Barack, who is also the U.S. envoy for Syria and Iraq. It is obvious that no one wants a conflict that would truly throw the Middle East into turmoil, since Israel would not be facing Hamas, Hezbollah, Lebanon, or Syria, but the country with NATO’s second-largest army and a now-well-developed military-industrial complex.
However, for now—and for as long as no crisis de-escalation mechanism is established, one that would include a system for timely notification of military activities— a mechanism that touches on sensitive political and diplomatic issues, the risk of an accidental incident could lead to a serious escalation at any moment.
SOURCE: Proto Thema
