The rise of the far right in Germany, along with the simultaneous strengthening of the left, are, according to political scientist and academic Giannos Katsouridis, signs of a broader political realignment linked to the erosion of the traditional party system, the problems of the welfare state, and the dead ends citizens face on a range of important issues.
In statements to KYPE, commenting on the results of the local elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, Mr. Katsouridis noted that the decline of the Christian Democrats and the rise of the far right in Germany should come as no surprise, as they are part, as he put it, part of a trend observed in recent years in many European countries.
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As he noted, the situation resembles a “self-fulfilling prophecy,” as signs of the far right’s rise are visible throughout Europe, without, in his assessment, any substantial change in the conditions that could halt this trend.
“The decline of the Christian Democratic Party came as no surprise to anyone,” he said, noting that in many European countries, with few exceptions, a rise of the far right at the expense of the traditional right.
Referring specifically to Germany, he said that the rise of the AfD should also come as no surprise, since the party, despite being officially designated as an extremist organization and despite the exclusionary stance generally maintained by the other parties, has been gaining strength in recent years.
Mr. Katsouridis pointed out, however, that exactly the same criteria cannot be applied to explain the rise of the far right in eastern and western Germany.
According to him, while there are common factors, in eastern Germany there are stronger factors linked to the manner in which German reunification took place and the consequences it had for the region.
As he noted, over time the perception emerged that “the lost part of the country that was left behind was East Germany,” with the result that a segment of society reacts by punishing parties it holds responsible for this development.
He noted, however, that this explanation is not sufficient on its own, since the AfD, as he said, doubled its support in Berlin as well—a city considered more progressive.
Mr. Katsouridis stated that the rise of the far right is more broadly linked to the core policies pursued by traditional parties, particularly those of the Right and the Center-Right, but also with the deadlocks on important issues of social and economic policy.
He made special mention of the perception that institutions no longer function effectively, the state of government services, and the decline of the welfare state, while noting that the increase in migration flows is yet another factor which, as he said, the far right is exploiting in a particularly intense manner.
“It’s always a mix of factors,” he said, adding that the changing political profile of far-right parties must also be taken into account.
As he explained, these parties no longer always present such an overtly Nazi or neo-fascist image, even when they adopt extreme positions. “They’ve softened their edges a bit to appeal to other voters,” he said.
According to Mr. Katsouridis, this creates a constant environment—both socially and politically—that favors the rise of far-right parties. While, as he noted, initially a portion of the vote for these parties may have been an expression of protest, gradually a significant portion of the vote now appears to reflect a political choice in favor of their specific positions.
For this reason, he added, it would be a mistake to limit the interpretation of the rise of the far right exclusively to the issue of immigration.
Specifically regarding Germany, he referred to the rising cost of living and the backlash that, as he put it, has been triggered by the energy crisis following the war in Ukraine and the interruption of access to cheaper Russian natural gas.
In his assessment, this issue is causing significant backlash among citizens, primarily in eastern Germany and, to a lesser extent, in western Germany.
At the same time, Mr. Katsouridis placed particular emphasis on the rise of the left, noting that over the past two to three years, there have been signs of its resurgence following a period of decline.
As he noted, Die Linke gained significant ground in Berlin, as well as in the other state where elections were held, while he noted that a similar rise was recorded in local elections held about two weeks earlier.
When asked whether the rise of the Left is due to the same factors that are also boosting the far right, Mr. Katsouridis replied that while there may be common factors, the decisive factor is the way in which political parties choose to politicize these specific issues.
He cited the welfare state as an example. According to him, a real problem may be politicized by the far right with a focus on immigrants, while the left, such as Die Linke in Germany, approaches it from a different angle, advocating for higher taxes on the wealthy, increased housing subsidies, and the strengthening of social policies.
Mr. Katsouridis noted that in this way, the left appears to be returning to traditional welfare state policies, which characterized both the Left itself and, to a large extent, the social democratic parties.
As he noted, social democratic parties across Europe have largely abandoned these policies, moving toward more right-wing positions, leaving a political space that left-wing parties now appear to be reclaiming.
He placed particular emphasis on the housing issue, noting that the Left’s politicization of it “seems to be paying off.”
In Berlin in particular, he said, a portion of what could be characterized as a progressive vote—without necessarily being left-wing—seems to be shifting toward Die Linke.
“The politicization of issues by the left and the right is heading in different directions, but it has been beneficial for both the far right and the left,” he noted.
Another factor that, according to Mr. Katsouridis, emerges from these developments is the serious erosion of Germany’s traditional party system.
As he explained, for many decades the political system was based on two major parties, which either formed a government with the participation of a smaller party or, in some cases, cooperated with one another within the framework of a grand coalition.
“Now this structure is beginning to break down, and we will inevitably be led toward other forms of cooperation,” he said.
He did not rule out the possibility that these developments could once again lead to a political landscape reminiscent of traditional right- and left-wing blocs, noting that this is one of the possible directions the German party system could take.
Overall, according to Mr. Katsouridis’s analysis, the election results reveal a dual trend: on the one hand, the rise of the far right, which capitalizes on issues such as immigration, the cost of living, and the erosion of institutions; and on the other, the return of the left to issues of the welfare state, taxation, and housing. These two developments, he argued, are linked to the widening cracks in Germany’s traditional party system.
Source: KYPE
