A CIA report, which has been shared with several European governments, as revealed by the Spanish newspaper El Mundo, several European governments have been briefed on a CIA report.
“They will use drones launched from the sea, hidden inside a shipping container; it’s not difficult at all,” explains a source close to the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΑΡΘΡΑ
The pretext for such an escalation has existed for some time. Moscow insists that the provision of weapons, intelligence, and military advisers to Ukraine makes Western nations participants in the war and legitimate targets.
So far, its actions have remained below what experts call the “threshold of war”—avoiding actions that could provoke a coordinated NATO response — while simultaneously conducting an escalating campaign of sabotage against targets in countries that support Ukraine.
What type of drone might be used
Lithuanian authorities now even know the type of drone the Russians might use against Spain, France, or Italy. It is the Gerbera: a drone approximately two meters long with a wingspan of 2.5 meters, weighing up to 18 kilograms, capable of reaching speeds of around 160 kilometers per hour, and with a stated maximum range of 600 kilometers, although this depends on the explosive payload and other variables such as wind conditions. A commercial ship can carry several such units, which are launched via a catapult with much less difficulty than the much larger Shahed or Geran models.
If launched from a distance of 200 or 300 kilometers off the coast, the flight would last from about one hour and fifteen minutes to two hours, depending on the actual speed.
The vehicle’s limited payload is insufficient to destroy a large facility; but it could start a fire, damage exposed equipment, or temporarily disable a port or airport. The intended impact could be political and economic, beyond the purely material.
Lithuania—like other countries—has been aware of this information since the period immediately following the mysterious trip by CIA Director John Ratcliffe, to Moscow on August 25. Ratcliffe arrived on a U.S. military aircraft that had made a stopover in Riga.
Macron’s Peculiar Stance
The governments of Spain, France, and Italy are aware of the danger. This warning is consistent with Emmanuel Macron’s unusual reaction: after convening the Defense Council on September 16, he summoned to the Élysée Palace, two days later, the leaders of all political parties as well as the candidates for the 2027 presidential election.
Several defense analysts who were interviewed confirmed the existence of a CIA report —which has been circulated among European foreign ministries—that describes the attack in great detail and which French officials consider highly credible.
Why an attack in Spain, France, or Italy?
All three countries are heading toward elections in 2027 and are home to radical forces capable of exploiting the fear and fatigue caused by the war inUkraine. Especially in France and Italy, there are connections to—or positions that clearly align with—the Kremlin’s interests. Just yesterday, left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon attributed the escalation of the Russian threat in Europe to Ukraine’s “long-range strikes” on Russian territory.
Kir Giles, a British analyst specializing in Russian military strategy and a former fellow at the United Kingdom’s Defense Academy, warns that Spain’s distance from the Russian border is no guarantee of safety. “Countries on the front lines will not necessarily be targeted. The target will be wherever Europe’s greatest vulnerability lies,” he argues.
Among the potential vulnerabilities, he cites “countries such as the United Kingdom or Spain, which have not invested in comprehensive air defense and anti-missile systems commensurate with the scale of the Russian threat.”
NATO’s stance
The scenario of a sea-based launch against NATO was presented by the Ukrainian media outlet “Defense Express” exactly one year ago: Gerbera-type drones transported on tankers of the “shadow fleet” and launched via catapults from international waters.
The Russian Federation had already conducted tests launching drones from ships. For example, in 2020, ZALA—a Russian drone manufacturer linked to the Kalashnikov arms industry—conducted launch demonstrations, releasing drones from a moving ship.
Source: CNN.gr
