The authorities in Britain are trying to unravel the tangled web surrounding who is behind—and the motive behind—the planned attack on an RAF base from which U.S. bombers operating against Iran take off.unravel by authorities in Britain.
The authorities consider the statements of the five individuals arrested in connection with the incident—who have since been released on bail—to be key.
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All that is known so far is that they are British nationals who lived in London and are between the ages of 23 and 25. It remains a mystery whether they acted on their own or on orders, with suspicions pointing to Iran, Russia, the Islamic State, and al-Qaeda.
And perhaps that is why they were released. The police may want to monitor their movements once they return home.
British security services have an extensive surveillance apparatus for precisely this type of investigation: communications data collection, wiretapping, physical surveillance, and network mapping.
Therefore, their release does not necessarily mean that investigators have no evidence against them.
For now, there is no evidence to confirm that this was the reason for their release.
However, if investigators have reasonable grounds to suspect a connection to a foreign state, the five men themselves may no longer be the primary targets of interest.
The significance Britain attaches to the incident is evident in the fact that the Cobra committee, chaired by Prime Minister Andy Burnham, is holding an emergency meeting. This is the government’s national committee for responding to emergencies and crises.
Where Suspicions Are Focused
If this were an attack on a U.S. bomber base being used in the ongoing Israeli-American war against Iran, then the roots of the plot may lie in Tehran, as reported by The Independent. Officially, Tehran denies any involvement in the incident, according to a statement from the Iranian embassy in London.
In a post on X, it emphasized that it “categorically rejects (…) the recent baseless and malicious speculations published by certain individuals and British media outlets, which attempt to link Iran to the arrest of five suspects” near the Fairford military base.
In this case, however, it was part of Russia’s ongoing hybrid war against the West —about which European intelligence agencies had warned that it would soon include a violent attack against a NATO member state —then the plan for the attack with explosives on the air base could have been devised in the Kremlin.
There is also the possibility that it could have been orchestrated by members or supporters of the so-called Islamic State or al-Qaeda due to the events in the Gaza Strip.
The role of drones
Two of the three “prime suspects” in the case—which is being treated as a terrorist conspiracy—are world-renowned experts in the use of the cheapest, lethal, and widely available technology of modern warfare: drones.
Russia is only slightly behind Ukraine as a global power in the use of FPV (First Person View) drones. These drones are controlled by operators wearing special virtual reality headsets; they can carry a warhead and are capable of pursuing a target within building complexes, at a distance of more than 15 kilometers.
Right behind the Russians in the field of drone technology are the Iranians. They have developed the Shahed, which can carry an explosive payload weighing approximately 50 kilograms hundreds of miles from its launch point and can even be launched from the back of a truck.
At the same time, Hezbollah—which is supported by Iran — has demonstrated that it possesses modern small-drone technology, which was used in deadly attacks against Israeli soldiers during their invasion of Lebanon.
Al-Qaeda’s Different Modus Operandi
The Islamic State and Al-Qaeda—which in recent years have relied primarily on followers acting as “lone wolves” to carry out attacks—are equally capable of converting a civilian or commercial drone into a flying bomb-dropping vehicle.
Transporting and dropping this bomb—or even multiple bombs—is now easier, more precise, and less dangerous, and it has a higher chance of success when carried out using drones, rather than by people driving white vans.
Doomed to fail?
In fact, many point out that the alleged attempted attack on RAF Fairford last weekend may have simply been a plan designed to fail.
This is because it seems to belong to a bygone era in the age of digital drones.
Based on the limited information that has come to light following the arrest of five men—who were spotted and reported by a farmer in the early hours of Sunday (September 27), when she noticed three white pickup trucks parked—a sight that aroused her suspicions —the alleged plan to blow up the U.S. RAF Fairford base was “old-fashioned” and outdated.
According to reports, authorities found barrels that may have contained improvised explosives. The pickup trucks were “disguised” as fuel supplier vehicles, but the logos were the wrong color.
The would-be perpetrators were already under surveillance. The base had stepped up its security measures, using large trucks to block potential entry points, and no one is now allowed to fly over the base within an eight-kilometer radius. Donald Trump claimed that the U.S. and the British were well aware of the operation being planned against an American military target.
However, it was a plan that seemed to have been devised in such a way as to be exposed.
In the recent past, the case might have sparked intense interest, as the large number of vehicles and individuals involved might have suggested the planning of a “complex attack”: the use of explosives to breach the airport’s perimeter and blow up a critical facility or a series of aircraft inside, followed by a shooting rampage carried out by armed assailants.
What a University Professor Argues
Of particular interest is the view on the incident expressed to the BBC by Dr. Patrick Barry, a professor of War and Counterterrorism at the University of Bath.
“Something was undoubtedly happening” at the base, he says, as residents saw heavy construction equipment being transported there, along with additional concrete roadblocks and large trucks positioned at strategic points near the gates.
“And if you consider how strictly confidential the security services and the government are handling the matter, this suggests that they are taking it very seriously,” he added.
Source: cnn.gr
