Fourteen days before the election, the Democrats are hoping for a “blue wave,” as recent polls show they can claim victories even in traditional Republican strongholds, where just a few months ago their chances were considered slim.

As reported by U.S. news networks, expectations have risen to such an extent that failing to win control of both houses of Congress could disappoint Democrats and allow Republicans to frame the outcome as a success.

In a recent ABC News and Washington Post poll on voter intentions, the Democrats held a lead of nearly ten percentage points. At the same time, their Senate candidates are making a strong run for seats in “red” states such as Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas.

The races in Michigan and Georgia also remain close, where the party is trying to defend the seats it already holds. Following Donald Trump’s landslide victory in 2024, the question that keeps coming up in television debates is whether the polls accurately reflect the Democrats’ momentum or overestimate the mobilization of their supporters.

The Exceptions: Bush and Clinton

In midterm elections, the party in the White House usually suffers losses in the House of Representatives.

Among the exceptions, 2002 stands out—during George W. Bush’s presidency—amid the climate that had developed after the September 11 attacks and before the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

Another exception was 1998, during Bill Clinton’s presidency. In 1998, the Democrats increased their seats in the House of Representatives without gaining a majority. A strong economy and the reaction of many voters to the Republicans’ handling of the Lewinsky scandal contributed to the outcome. The effort to impeach Clinton did not result in electoral punishment for the Democrats, while support for his removal from the presidency remained low.

How Past Electoral Losses Were Interpreted

In 2022, following the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, the Democrats and Joe Biden viewed the loss of just nine seats as a relatively positive development, even though it was enough for the House to swing to the Republicans.

“While the press and analysts predicted a massive red wave, that did not happen,” Biden said the day after the election, calling the result “a good day for democracy.” The loss of the majority, however, limited his ability to advance his legislative agenda.

In 2018, despite losing the House, Trump highlighted the strengthening of the Republican majority in the Senate and argued that his party’s performance in the House was better than historical precedents suggested.

According to CNN’s assessment, whatever this year’s outcome may be, Trump will likely make claims of voter fraud, regardless of the evidence, and will attempt to portray some aspect of the race as a victory.

Major Upsets of the Past

Even a small shift in seats can change control of Congress. This happened in 2022, when the Democrats’ small losses were enough to cost them their majority in the House, though predictions of a landslide defeat were not confirmed.

In other cases, the shifts were much more dramatic. In 1994, during the first midterm elections of the Clinton presidency, the Democrats lost 54 seats in what became known as the “Republican Revolution.” In 2010, with the rise of the Tea Party, their losses reached 63 seats, a result that Barack Obama described as a “crushing defeat.” In both elections, control of the House of Representatives shifted to the Republicans.

A similar shift in control occurred in 2018, when the Republicans lost 41 seats in the first midterm elections of the Trump presidency.

The Key Senate Seats

Senators serve six-year terms, and approximately one-third of the seats are up for election in each election cycle. Of the 35 seats up for grabs in this year’s election, ten are considered battleground races.

The Democrats currently hold three of them, in Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire. The other seven are held by Republicans and are located in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.

The Tight House Districts

Repeated redistricting has reduced the number of seats where the outcome is truly uncertain. According to the nonpartisan website Cook Political Report, 21 seats are classified as competitive. Of these, 15 are held by Republicans and six by Democrats.

In addition, ten Republican seats are classified in categories that, to varying degrees of certainty, give the Democrats an advantage. The assessment is similar for one additional seat, which is held by a representative who left the Republican Party and is now running as an independent. Conversely, in eight Democratic seats, the projections favor the Republicans.

This scenario means that the Democrats may need only one or a few wins in the toss-up districts to secure a majority. If, however, the Republicans win a large portion of these seats, they will be able to claim that they have stemmed the expected “wave.”

Why the two chambers may move in different directions

The outcome in the House does not determine that of the Senate. In 2018 and 2022, the party of the sitting president lost control of the House but increased its seats in the Senate.

In 2018, the Republicans won four seats from the Democrats, while losing two of their own. Thus, they recorded a net gain of two seats, despite Trump’s low popularity. In 2022, the Democrats gained one additional seat, even though the national political climate was unfavorable for Biden.

Although majorities in Congress change frequently, a simultaneous shift in control of both chambers has occurred only twice in the last 50 years: in 1994, with the “Republican Revolution,” and in 2006, when the “Democratic Wave” was linked to opposition to the war in Iraq.

The Candidates Shaping the Race

Trump’s low approval ratings are complicating the Republicans’ campaigns, while recent polls are encouraging Democrats to seek victories beyond the usual battleground states. However, the candidates’ own profiles remain decisive in every race.

In North Carolina, the Democrats are running the popular former governor Roy Cooper for the seat. In Georgia, they are backing incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff. In Texas, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is facing the race with relatively low popularity and the weight of scandals, while his Democratic opponent, James Talarico, is reportedly leading in the polls.

In Kansas, where no Democratic senator has been elected in nearly a century, the party is banking on the candidacy of moderate pastor Adam Hamilton.

Polls in Texas and Kansas show close races for the Senate and the governorship. In Texas, Democrats have been trying for years to make a serious bid for a Senate seat, which they haven’t won since 1988.

It is worth noting that in 2014, in Kansas, independent candidate Greg Orman was leading in pre-election polls against Republican Senator Pat Roberts, who was ultimately re-elected. This precedent suggests that a Republican resurgence would not be an unprecedented development.

If a broader “blue wave” materializes, the momentum will extend to stronger Republican strongholds as well. In South Carolina, Democratic physician Annie Andrews, who has been targeted by Trump, is running for Darlene Graham’s seat. Graham was appointed to the seat following the death of her brother, Lindsey Graham, earlier this year.

The narrow margins between the two parties make every seat critical. The Democrats need a net gain of four seats in each of the two chambers to secure a majority.

In the 435-member House of Representatives, Republicans hold 218 seats and Democrats 214. Independent Representative Kevin Kiley of California aligns with the Republicans on procedural matters. Two seats remain vacant, one from each party.

In the Senate, Republicans hold 53 seats, Democrats 45, and independents who align with the Democrats hold two. The Democratic side must reach 51 seats to secure control, as in the event of a tie, Vice President Jay D. Vance, as President of the Senate.

What Will Change for the Trump Administration

Trump has acknowledged that the historical trend in midterm elections works against the party holding the presidency. At the same time, he is accelerating the push for his priorities, as if preparing for a more challenging political landscape in Congress during the second half of his term.

Democratic control of even one chamber would allow for more intensive congressional oversight of the administration through investigations and hearings. The party would also gain greater influence over budget decisions.

Trump Steps Up Campaign Tours

In the final stretch, Trump is stepping up his campaign appearances, aiming to mobilize the Republican base. According to NPR, although he had pledged to support candidates in competitive districts, a large portion of his visits are to traditionally Republican states.

His itinerary includes Ohio, Texas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Alaska—a fact that reflects the need to support candidates even in areas where he won comfortably in 2024.

On October 19, he visited Kansas to rally support for Republican Senator Roger Marshall against Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton. He is scheduled to appear in Michigan on October 25, one day after Barack Obama’s rally in Detroit.

Obama’s Appearance in Michigan

Barack Obama is expected in Detroit on October 24, where he will appear alongside Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El Sayed, and gubernatorial candidate Jocelyn Benson.

The rally is part of an effort to rally and mobilize critical segments of the party’s voter base ahead of the election. The former U.S. president’s intervention comes as, according to the Washington Post, El Sayed is facing difficulties in rallying African American and Jewish voters.

Source: Proto Thema