For the Greek national team, the calendar can turn back 22 years—at least as far as its potential opponents in the Nations League quarterfinals are concerned. Portugal, France, and Spain are all in the mix for the quarterfinals, bringing back memories of that unforgettable summer of 2004.
Ivan Jovanović’s team faces a major challenge as it vies for a spot in the tournament’s quarterfinals. To do so, they’ll need to get past either the Netherlands or Germany, their main rivals in League A.
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Football Meets Data analyzed the available data and presented the most likely matchups for the quarterfinals. Among the scenarios that stand out are three potential matchups of interest to Greece.
More specifically, the probability of Greece facing Portugal stands at 19.6%. This is followed by a potential matchup with Spain, at 18.3%, and one with France, estimated at 18.2%.
These are three opponents that evoke special memories for Greek fans. At Euro 2004, the national team defeated Portugal twice and France once, while drawing with Spain. A potential matchup with them in the Nations League would therefore lend a particularly nostalgic dimension to the tournament.
— Football Meets Data (@fmeetsdata) November 11, 2026
Nations League quarter-finals: the most likely pairings, with two matchdays left (12-17 Nov). The four group winners are seeded and meet the runners-up.
Spain and
Portugal are already through. Each team will have 3 possible opponents in the draw, so the maximum pre-draw probability one pair can reach is 33.3%. 28.4%
England v
France 19.6%
Greece v
Netherlands 18.3%
Full team-level probabilities and scenarios available at https://t.co/eb8j4zEpmT
*photo source: AP
