In a “controlled war of attrition” between the U.S. and Iran, featuring targeted American strikes and asymmetric Iranian responses, international relations expert and political analyst Konstantinos Poyatzis believes the conflict is heading in the short term; in remarks to KYPE on Wednesday, also highlighted the increased risk of miscalculation and regional escalation.
As he noted, the new exchange of strikes between the U.S. and Iran marks the conflict’s entry into a more dangerous phase.
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The cycle of new attacks and retaliations is widening, he said, tensions are spilling over into the Strait of Hormuz and neighboring countries, while the risk of a more widespread conflict is increasing, with implications for both security and the economy.
“We are not yet in a full-scale war, but the risk of a potential miscalculation and a regional conflagration is increasing significantly,” he said.
According to Mr. Poyatzis, the most likely short-term scenario is “a controlled war of attrition between the two sides, with targeted U.S. strikes and asymmetric Iranian responses.”
He warned, however, that significant U.S. losses or a severe restriction on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could lead to an escalation of the conflict, with an even greater energy crisis, rising fuel prices, and stronger inflationary pressures worldwide.
Mr. Poyatzis noted that retaliatory actions are escalating in the region, with attacks on U.S. allies, the involvement of other states, and attacks on commercial ships, while insurance premiums are rising and difficulties are arising regarding transit and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
“That is also where the actual control that both sides can exercise is limited,” he said.
He added that a single miscalculated strike, an unintended incident, or human casualties could very quickly lead from a controlled to an uncontrolled escalation and ultimately to a regional conflict.
Regarding the possibility of returning to negotiations, Mr. Poyatzis told KYPE that “the only way to de-escalate tensions at this moment is through negotiation,” noting that this window remains limited and depends on avoiding serious U.S. casualties or damage, as well as a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
In his view, the U.S. seeks to force Iran to curtail its nuclear and missile programs, as they have stated, to stop attacks on U.S. targets and allies in the region, and to accept safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
“In essence, Washington is using military and economic pressure as a means of coercive diplomacy, seeking to negotiate from a position of strength, as it is taking shape on the ground, and not necessarily a long-term war, which is not in its interest,” he noted.
The problem, he added, is that threats to overthrow the Iranian regime reinforce Tehran’s sense of insecurity and make a potential compromise through negotiations even more difficult.
Looking ahead to the coming days, Mr. Poyatzis assessed that the limited cycle of strikes and retaliations from both sides will continue until they are led to a temporary mediation or a ceasefire brokered by third parties.
As he noted, “neither side wants to undermine the prestige and reputation they project to their own audiences.”
He said, however, that he does not expect a definitive agreement anytime soon, as there is no common understanding on how to resolve the key issues raised by both sides.
“I believe, however, that there is a possibility of a fragile de-escalation, though without a resolution of the fundamental differences,” he said.
A decisive factor, he reiterated, will be avoiding massive American casualties or a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Finally, when asked whether Iran might be deliberately avoiding striking U.S. targets in a way that could cost American lives, he answered in the affirmative.
As he explained, the strikes carried out by Iran are intended to keep costs and insecurity high, increase insurance premiums, and make transit through the Strait of Hormuz more difficult, without, however, deliberately seeking an escalation through the loss of American lives.
The goal, he concluded, appears to be to impose costs on U.S. interests, whether through disruption of shipping, material damage, or, more generally, through the difficulties Iran is attempting to create in the region.
Source: CNA
