Ukraine appears to be gaining the upper hand in the war with Russia, demonstrating that it can now strike almost any target of its choosing within Russia, using sophisticated drones and long-range missiles.

From energy facilities to weapons factories and military bases, fewer and fewer areas in Russia are now considered safe, according to an analysis by Axios.

Russia is now even facing fuel shortages due to repeated strikes on refineries. At least one of these attacks caused scenes of panic, with Moscow residents seeking shelter after explosions, and there were even reports of “black rain.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has argued that Russia was forced to redeploy most of its air defense capabilities to protect critical areas, such as central Moscow and a presidential residence, leaving other targets more vulnerable.

Russian President Vladimir Putin admitted very recently that there are “problems” and “certain shortcomings” related to the strikes, though he attempted to downplay their significance.

At the same time, Russian forces continue their fierce attacks on Ukraine. Moscow launched new attacks against Kyiv overnight, killing at least 30 people, while Russian troops continue to try to advance along the front line in Donetsk, despite heavy losses.

Zelenskyy’s “far-reaching sanctions”

Zelenskyy has repeatedly referred to the so-called “long-range sanctions,” an ironic term for Ukrainian attacks on Russian targets hundreds of kilometers away from the border. Ukraine’s capabilities and tactics have become much more sophisticated over the years of the war.

Videos circulating on social media this week showed Flamingo missiles, manufactured by Fire Point, striking their targets, including the Titan-Barrikady factory, where Russian artillery systems are produced.

Last summer, footage from the spectacular “Spiderweb” operation showed small drones—which had secretly crossed the border and were equipped with explosives—heading toward parked and unprotected military aircraft.

This represents a major shift from the early stages of the war. Ukraine now relies heavily on domestically produced drones and modified missiles, launching attacks even in areas such as Moscow and St. Petersburg, which are far from the border.

“Classic aerial blockade, but with drones and missiles”

According to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Kyiv has “spectacularly shifted the war onto Russian soil in 2026, organizing a series of short-, medium-, and long-range strikes aimed at disrupting and destroying the Russian supply chain and logistics.”

As the same report notes, this is “classic aerial isolation, only carried out with drones and missiles—not with aircraft.”

However, this development took time. One of the reasons was the restrictions imposed by Western countries regarding which weapons Ukraine could use, where, and how. At the same time, not all Ukrainian attacks are successful, as Russian interception and electronic warfare systems continue to operate effectively in many cases.

The next critical juncture is the 40-day operation that, according to Zelenskyy, Ukraine has launched, with the aim of forcing Russia to return to the negotiating table. For now, however, there are few signs of substantive diplomatic progress.

Source: Proto Thema