Tehran is targeting the undersea cables that connect the Gulf countries to international telecommunications networks, according to an analysis by EOS Marine. The maritime security firm reports that on October 19, a spokesperson for the Revolutionary Guards warned that infrastructure passing through the Strait of Hormuz could be a target in the event of a new conflict with the United States.
The warning draws attention to the telecommunications links in a region where critical networks pass through narrow sea passages. However, EOS Marine’s assessment distinguishes between the threat and the operational capability to carry it out: a successful, targeted cable cut by Iran or the Houthis is assessed as unlikely within the one-month timeframe covered by the analysis.
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The assessment is authored by John Walker, head of consulting services at EOS Marine, based on specialized experience in seabed operations and intelligence analysis. The key question it raises is whether the stated intention can be transformed into an operation with a specific objective and outcome.
One of the main obstacles, according to the company, is the precise location of undersea cables. The existence of the networks and general knowledge of their routes are not sufficient on their own to ensure the success of a targeted operation.
The analysis acknowledges that anchor dragging is a potential cause of damage. It notes, however, that operational and geographical constraints reduce the likelihood of a successful, deliberate attack on infrastructure. Based on this assessment, EOS Marine does not take it for granted that the Iranian side or the Houthis can cause the intended disruption.
The significance of the threat is linked to the geography of the networks. As the company points out in its accompanying infographic, key cables connecting the Gulf to global networks pass through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Any disruption to their operation could have repercussions beyond the region.
EOS Marine’s assessment pertains to a specific short-term timeframe and does not rule out the possibility of damage. It does, however, reflect a significant caveat regarding the warning: while the intention to exert pressure is clear, the ability to cause a targeted disruption remains far less certain.
Source: Protothema.gr
