The leader of the far right in France, Marine Le Pen, maintains her lead ahead of the presidential election, while her opponent from the far left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is in second place in most of the scenarios analyzed, a poll showed today, highlighting the growing polarization of the electorate as Emmanuel Macron’s era comes to an end.
Le Pen would garner between 33% and 36% of the vote in the first round of the election, depending on the scenario analyzed by the polling firm Toluna Harris Interactive, in a survey conducted from September 8 to 10.
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Mélenchon, the candidate of the far-left party La France Insoumise (LFI), appears to reach the second round in at least three of the five scenarios examined, while he ties for second place in a fourth scenario. Le Pen appears to easily defeat him in the second round.
Macron’s former prime minister, Édouard Philippe, is the only center-right candidate who leads Mélenchon in one of the scenarios examined and ties with him in another. The others trail behind him in all scenarios.
The center is on the sidelines
As Macron’s second and final term draws to a close, the deeply unpopular president leaves behind a decimated political center and a weakened economy, making room for hard-line parties such as the LFI and Le Pen’s National Rally.
Mélenchon has already run for president three times—in 2012, 2017, and 2022—but has never managed to make it to the second round. Le Pen has also run three times. She reached the second round in 2017 and 2022 but lost to Macron.
Source: Proto Thema
