Member states’ defense spending, the gradual redeployment of U.S. military forces in Europe, the continuation of military support for Ukraine, as well as the strengthening of the Alliance’s defense industrial base, are expected to dominate the proceedings of the NATO Summit, to be held in Ankara on July 7 and 8, according to diplomatic sources.

The Summit is taking place at a time when the Alliance is seeking to translate the commitments made in The Hague in June 2025, into concrete military capabilities, with an emphasis on strengthening its deterrence and defense capabilities, accelerating the production of defense equipment, and ensuring the “interoperability” of allied forces.

Defense spending and the implementation of the 5% commitment take
center stage A central topic of discussion will be the implementation of the commitment to total defense spending of 5% of GDP by 2035, of which 3.5% is for purely military spending and the remainder for investments that strengthen defense and resilience.

According to diplomatic sources, the Alliance’s goal is for the Summit to send a message of unity and progress, as several allies have already significantly increased their defense spending. However, differences remain regarding the timeline for implementing these commitments. Greece is already among the countries meeting the new target, along with Poland, the Nordic countries, and the Baltic states, while other allies have not yet presented a credible plan for adjustment.

Particular attention is focused on the remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump, who is expected to reiterate the need for immediate implementation of the 5% commitment, calling on European allies to shoulder a greater and fairer share of the responsibility for Europe’s collective defense.

In the same vein, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, stressed that Washington expects all allies to follow a “credible path” toward the 5% target, stressing that the goal is not merely to increase defense spending, but to translate that spending into actual military capabilities.

NATO’s Transformation and a Greater Share of Responsibility from the Europeans
The discussion on defense spending is directly linked to the Alliance’s broader transformation and the gradual transfer of a greater share of the responsibility for Europe’s conventional defense to European Allies and Canada, without calling into question the U.S. commitment under Article 5.

Diplomatic sources report that talks on adjusting the U.S. military presence in Europe are now proceeding in a constructive atmosphere. As they point out, the United States recognizes that the process should proceed gradually, as some capabilities can be replaced immediately by European allies and Canada, while others will require more time.

At the leaders’ level, technical details or specific troop numbers are not expected to be discussed. The discussion will focus on the general political direction of the process, while operational issues will continue to be addressed at the military level.

Military Aid to Ukraine
The continuation of military support for Ukraine is also a key topic of the Summit.

According to the text of the declaration already approved by the Permanent Representatives of the 32 member states in Brussels, leaders are expected to commit to providing 70 billion euros in 2026 and to maintain support at at least equivalent levels in 2027.

Diplomatic sources note that several countries that contribute significantly to military aid for Ukraine wanted to establish country-specific quotas. However, this proposal did not garner the necessary consensus.

The total amount of aid for the two-year period is expected to reach 140 billion euros, covering military equipment, training, and other military support. This includes the 60 billion euros that the European Union has already committed for military aid in 2026 and 2027, through the new €90 billion loan to Ukraine. Therefore, the additional amount of new commitments that NATO Allies are being asked to make is limited to 80 billion euros over the same two-year period. This amount also includes purchases of specialized U.S. weapons systems—primarily air defense systems—that only the U.S. can provide, through the Priority Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) program.

The U.S. ambassador to NATO also foreshadowed “substantial announcements” regarding continued support for Kyiv, emphasizing that “the European side will have to shoulder a greater share of the burden,” since “this is a war being waged on the European continent,” though he did not call into question the U.S. commitment. He made it clear that, at the same time, a clear message must be sent to Russia that the war must end.

Defense Industry and Operational Capabilities
Particular emphasis is also expected to be placed on strengthening the Alliance’s defense industrial base.

On the sidelines of the Summit, the NATO Industrial Forum will be held, with the aim of increasing the production capacity of Allied defense industries, accelerating procurement, and strengthening cooperation between governments and the defense industry. According to Alliance officials, the need for faster production of ammunition, air defense systems, and other critical military assets is a key prerequisite for ensuring that increased defense spending translates into actual military capabilities.

At the same time, particular emphasis is placed on accelerating innovation and the faster integration of new technologies into the Allied armed forces, since, as noted at the military level, the credibility of deterrence now depends not only on the level of spending but also on the speed with which that spending is converted into operational capability.

A Brief Declaration
According to diplomatic sources, the final declaration of the Ankara Summit is expected to be particularly brief, following the model of the Hague Summit.

The text will reaffirm the Allies’ commitment to collective defense under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, while the Summit’s key political message will focus on strengthening the Alliance’s actual military capabilities, a fairer burden-sharing among the Allies, and the preservation of transatlantic unity in the face of contemporary security challenges.

ANA-MPA