By publicly reaffirming—and in a more emphatic manner—the promise to lift the CAATSA sanctions against Turkey, the new attack on European allies by bringing up the issue of Greenland once again, as well as the attempt by the other member statesby announcing major defense procurement programs, in order to satisfy his demand that the burden of Europe’s defense be shifted to European NATO members, President Donald Trump set his own tone at the 36th NATO Summit, being held in Ankara.

Attention naturally focused on his public statements ahead of his meeting with President Erdoğan at the Beştepe Presidential Complex, where the main focus was on what “gift” he would give his host—a politician whom, as he himself has stated, he admires and with whom he shares “the same chemistry.”

The U.S. president, despite his often chaotic and ambiguous rhetoric, reiterated that lifting the sanctions should be considered, since, as he said, “we don’t impose sanctions on friends,” while, referring to the F-35s, he was quick to add that: “Well, it’s a decision we’ll make. We have a very good relationship… We now have a better relationship with Turkey, and in many ways, Turkey has proven to be a more loyal ally than other countries from which we would expect greater loyalty. So, it’s something we will certainly consider…”.

This statement fell short of the expectations that had been raised in Ankara that President Trump would be more specific. Of course, it is possible that he did not wish to publicly announce any potential ideas or initiatives that could lead to overcoming the major institutional and legal obstacle to Turkey’s return to F-35 program. However, when responding to a question, he appeared to be completely unaware of the proposal that has been discussed regarding the possible transfer of Turkey’s S-400s to a third country.

Trump’s statement sparked a new reaction from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who, in an interview with an American television network, warned that the potential sale of F-35s to Turkey would upset the balance of power in the region. As he argued, Turkey is turning against Israel, threatening an ally, Greece, while continuing to occupy territory belonging to the Republic of Cyprus. In fact, he compared Turkey to North Korea.

The sanctions were imposed under the CAATSA law, which was passed by Congress in 2017, and lifting them requires a specific institutional process. The law was enacted with the aim of restricting sales of military equipment from Russia, Iran, and North Korea, and requires the U.S. government to impose sanctions on entities that knowingly engage in significant transactions with Russia’s defense and intelligence sectors sectors.

In 2020, Turkey became the first NATO ally to be sanctioned under this law, due to its purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system. The sanctions specifically targeted the Turkish Defense Industries Agency (SSB)—the state agency responsible for managing major defense procurement programs— as well as restrictions on export licenses for U.S. defense equipment and sanctions against senior SSB officials. Under the same legal framework, Turkey was also excluded from the F-35 program, in which it participated as a co-producer.

The CAATSA Act allows the President of the United States to lift the sanctions if the government determines that the party against which they were imposed has ceased the activity that triggered them, has taken significant and verifiable steps to permanently end such activity, and has provided assurances that it will not engage in similar activity in the future. However, any such action is subject to congressional review, in accordance with Section 216 of the Act, which requires the government to notify Congress before the lifting of sanctions takes effect, giving lawmakers the opportunity to object within the prescribed timeframe.

However, in addition to CAATSA, there is also a provision in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) of 2021 that specifically addresses Turkey’s S-400s. This provision requires the U.S. government to certify that Turkey no longer possesses the S-400s or any successor system, that the system is neither operated nor maintained by Russian personnel or individuals acting on behalf of Russia, and that Ankara will not seek to reacquire the system in the future.

As Al-Monitor also points out, even the lifting of CAATSA sanctions does not automatically mean that Turkey will return to the F-35 program. The final policy decision rests with Congress, where, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there is particular sensitivity regarding issues related to relations with Russia.

For Turkey, however, beyond the F-35 issue, the lifting of sanctions is equally important, as it will pave the way for the resumption of defense cooperation with the United States in the area of military equipment. This will also have positive implications for the domestic defense industry, as many major programs—such as the KAAN fighter jet, helicopter programs, missiles, and other weapons systems, depend to a significant extent on U.S. exports of technology and components.

Donald Trump, however, made sure to give a strong political “boost” to T. Erdogan, praising both his work and Turkey’s stance on regional crises, such as the war in Ukraine, Syria, the Middle East, and Iran. In a statement he repeated for the second time—and which came as a surprise, as it suggested that Turkey had been ready to intervene on Iran’s behalf following the U.S.-Israeli attack— something which, as he said, was avoided thanks to his good relationship with the Turkish president.

This political support bolsters T. Erdogan’s effort to claim a leading role for Turkey within NATO and, at the same time, to pressure European allies to unconditionally accept Turkey’s participation in European defense.

As for the summit, which concludes this afternoon, European allies and Canada will attempt to bridge the rift caused by Donald Trump’s decisions by presenting a major arms procurement program, although several countries—led by Spain—refuse to comply with The Hague’s decision to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP.The atmosphere soured once again following Donald Trump’s attack yesterday—in the presence of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan—against a number of allies, such as France, Italy, and Britain, for failing to support the U.S. in the war against Iran. He himself, however, in an effort to save face, claimed that the U.S. did not need the help of its European allies, but simply wanted to “test” them.

It is telling, however, that Donald Trump, after some time, returned to the issue of Greenland, arguing that it should not belong to Denmark but to the U.S., which has a particular need for Greenland for strategic reasons, even implying that, otherwise, he might withdraw U.S. forces from Europe. This statement provoked a strong reaction from the Danish prime minister, who called on NATO to reaffirm its respect for the sovereignty of member states.

As a major issue remains the support for Ukraine in confronting the Russian threat, which is expected to take the form of new commitments of economic and military support for Kyiv, questions continue to be raised by the vague statements of the U.S. president, who, following his talks with Vladimir Putin, claimed that both the Russian president and Volodymyr Zelenskyy want peace and that an agreement may be close at hand.

There are only a few hours left until this afternoon, during which the 31 NATO leaders, amid this tense atmosphere, must bridge the new dividing lines drawn by Donald Trump and project an image of Alliance unity

Source: Proto Thema