The center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) is reported to have surpassed the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in voting intentions ahead of the elections the day after tomorrow in the state of Mecklenburg-Pomerania, according to a poll conducted for ZDF and broadcast yesterday, Thursday.
According to the poll, the SPD, led by State Premier Manuela Schwesig, increased its share of the vote by three percentage points to 37% compared to last week, while the AfD, whose candidate for state premier is Leif-Erik Holm, saw its support drop by one percentage point to 36%. The Social Democrats have long trailed the far right.
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This election will be a neck-and-neck race. Every vote counts! I want to remain Minister-President: for a strong economy, secure jobs, good daycare centers, modern schools, support for the elderly, and social cohesion. Let’s send a message for our state!
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— Manuela Schwesig (@ManuelaSchwesig) September 17, 2026
According to this poll, the CDU—the Christian Democrats led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz— also saw its support dip slightly to 6% (-1), dangerously close to the 5% threshold required to win seats in the state parliament.
The Left (Die Linke) party, which is part of the state’s governing coalition, also lost one percentage point, dropping to 9%, while the Greens stand at 5% (unchanged) and the populist Zara Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), at 4%, is on track to remain outside the state parliament.
The poll also indicated that 79% of voters are certain about whom they will vote for, but more than one in five—21%—remain undecided.
The poll was conducted among a sample of 1,395 registered voters from September 14 to 17, and the margin of error ranges from ±2% to ±3%.
