Faced with the threat of a U.S. invasion, are these the final days of “socialism” in Cuba, or can Havana’s recent reforms salvage anything?
Although the Middle East and Iran have been in the spotlight in recent months, in the Western Hemisphere another equally “unique” regime is under unprecedented pressure: Cuba. Is the Cuban Revolution being consigned to the dustbin of history, or can anything be salvaged from that glorious year of 1959?
A few months ago, in January 2026, a 35-year-old Cuban, speaking to the British Guardian, made the following statement: “I’d rather be arrested by ICE—the immigration enforcement agency—on a street corner in the U.S. and sent… to any other country,” adding that “I say this honestly, from the bottom of my heart: go back to Cuba? Not even if I were dead.”
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Is the reality in Cuba so harsh that a young person would prefer to fall into the hands of ICE? And if so, is this due to Cuba’s own system or to Washington’s obsession with pushing Cuban society to its limits?
The internal situation in Cuba is indeed chaotic. The country is experiencing a prolonged economic contraction, mass emigration, a collapse of infrastructure, a weakening of state capacity, and widespread social discontent due to shortages of electricity, food, and medicine.
The main cause—though not the only one—of all these hardships is Washington’s policies, which are exacerbated by the economic stranglehold imposed by President Donald Trump, who has stated that he wishes to change the leadership in Havana and even invade the island. It should be noted that Washington has brought charges against Raúl Castro for murder, repeating the same tactic used against the president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, who has been accused by the U.S. Department of Justice since 2020. The charge against Castro relates to the 1996 shooting down of two aircraft belonging to the organization Brothers to the Rescue, in which four people were killed.
This time, however, the U.S. faces fewer issues regarding violations of international law. Unlike Maduro, Castro does not enjoy the immunity afforded to a head of state; he is a deputy in Cuba’s National Assembly of People’s Power and a general. Neither of these titles grants him international immunity.
At the same time, the U.S. has “intensified the economic embargo against the island, imposing new and extensive sanctions, as well as an oil embargo, which makes it difficult even for the UN to deliver humanitarian aid,” as reported by Open Democracy.
Domestically, the Communist Party dominates political institutions, the media, and security forces. The business conglomerate linked to the military, Grupo de Administración Empresarial S.A., serves as a strategic tool that controls the most dynamic sectors of the Cuban economy, from hotels and retail stores to customs and ports.
Thus, for many Cubans, the revolutionary narrative has lost its momentum, while the state focuses on surveillance, coercion, information control, repression, and human rights violations, according to reports from organizations.
The U.S. should help Cuba
However, the man who advised U.S. President Barack Obama during the U.S.–Cuba in 2014 has argued that the U.S. should aim to improve the daily lives of Cubans and bring about regime change.
“Tightening conditions has never brought about change, regardless of whether the sanctions are justified or not,” says Ricardo Suniga. “I believe that popular opposition to the regime is quite strong right now. But people have been predicting that ‘things will change next year’ in Havana for many, many years,” he adds. “As long as the elites in Havana believe they’ll lose out on a period of change rather than benefit from it, I don’t see them launching any kind of coup from within, any kind of adjustment, or any kind of move. And I don’t see any signs that anything like that is happening.”
Open Democracy argues that a democratic transition could take place in the form of a hybrid democracy —a democracy that follows democratic procedures, particularly in electoral processes, but without a judiciary and a parliament possessing the autonomy and power expected in a genuine democracy. It would have a parliamentary-presidential character, based on certain constitutional guarantees, gradual decentralization, and the emergence of new political parties and civil society organizations.
A Society Not Without Achievements
Of course, we must not forget that, despite all its problems, Cuba has achieved great things that have had a direct impact on ordinary citizens.
The Cuban public health system and the 1961 literacy campaign significantly and permanently improved child survival rates and the educational level of the population.
Cuba has also achieved unexpected successes in applied science, such as health biotechnology. These are the result of Cuba’s decision in 1959 to develop an advanced scientific system, with the aim of addressing the most pressing problems of the country’s development and overcoming its state of dependence and subjugation.
Are we witnessing the demise of the Revolution in Cuba?
However, the multifaceted crisis persists and demands a response, regardless of the American threat.
To address the situation, Cuban lawmakers have implemented the most significant change to Cuba’s socialist model since the Revolution and a major shift toward a market economy.
On Thursday, June 18, Cuban lawmakers unanimously approved sweeping reforms—a list of more than 175 measures—backed by the Communist Party and former leader Raúl Castro—that will privatize a vast portion of the country’s socialist economy, in an effort to survive the suffocating U.S. sanctions.
According to Reuters, the reforms pave the way for private real estate development on the Caribbean island, propose the conversion of state-owned enterprises into private commercial companies with shares and equity capital, and will allow private banks to enter Cuba’s financial sector, which has been state-controlled until now.
They will also allow “the sale of state assets to domestic and foreign legal entities and individuals, including Cubans living abroad,” according to a televised presentation to lawmakers—a significant change in a country where the state has long maintained control over land and industry.
“What is being discussed here is the dilemma of how to continue the process of socialist construction, which has suffered the longest blockade in history at the hands of the world’s greatest power,” said Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel, referring to U.S. sanctions. “We do not renounce socialism.”
Prime Minister Manuel Marrero told lawmakers that the measures recognize the market as “a tool for the efficient allocation of resources,” an extremely unusual admission from a Communist Party official in Cuba. However, he, too, presented the changes as compatible with the country’s socialist roots. “The primary goal of updating the economic and social model is to improve the quality of life for our fellow citizens.”
It appears that the long-time leader of the Communist Party, Raúl Castro, also supported the reforms. In a written letter first presented to the Political Bureau on Wednesday and later to members of parliament on Thursday, he described the measures as “beneficial” and called for their swift implementation. According to Reuters, these measures overturn many of the socialist policies implemented after the 1959 Revolution.
Will burgers solve the problems of the Cuban people?
Reuters reports that these measures will significantly reduce the role of state-owned enterprises in Cuba, while simultaneously liberalizing private enterprise, which has long been restricted by a bureaucratic state suspicious of private capital.
For the first time, businesses in Cuba will be able to employ more than 100 workers. At the same time, entrepreneurs will be allowed to own more than one private business—also for the first time.
Marero stated that the movement of private capital will be facilitated by a more flexible private banking system, under state supervision, as well as by a real-time digital foreign exchange market with authorized intermediaries.
For decades, Cuba provided its citizens with heavily subsidized public services, such as free or low-cost education, health care, and transportation. Many of these services have collapsed in recent years due to government inefficiency and the failing economy.
The new measures will establish a new tax system and make public and private enterprises—both domestic and foreign—partially responsible for funding public services.
All of this means that, in theory, brands such as McDonald’s, KFC, or Starbucks could appear in Cuba in the future. The question, of course, remains: even so, will the problems faced by Cubans “be solved” if the idealism and vision of 1959 are not upheld in practice?
Source: in.gr
