There has been an escalation in the rhetoric of both Greece and Turkey, geostrategic analyst Savvas Kalenteridis told CNA. He assessed that the issue of the electricity interconnection cable and the submission to Turkey of the bill on the “Blue Homeland” will play a critical role in how the situation unfolds. As he noted, the submission of this specific bill will create a new dynamic in Greek-Turkish relations.
As Mr. Kalenteridis explained, Turkey has escalated its aggressive rhetoric following certain moves made on the ground by Greece.
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“We had three statements from the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs in response to corresponding publications of spatial planning maps for the Aegean by the relevant ministries of the Greek government,” he noted.
He stated that Turkey subsequently proceeded to declare two marine parks extending beyond its territorial waters.
“Turkey did this in response to both the marine parks declared by Greece, as well as to the spatial planning schemes, which include all 152 islands over which Turkey denies Greek sovereignty,” said Mr. Kalenteridis.
He went on to state that “when Turkey declared the two marine parks, Greece—after studying the maps and other data—issued a strong protest note against Turkey.”
“Turkey then, going a step further, also issued a note of protest against Greece regarding the three spatial plans,” he added.
He explained that Turkey has also taken other actions in this regard. As he noted, there has been an increase in violations as well as in flights by Turkish unmanned aerial vehicles, mainly over the North Aegean Marine Park. “This, therefore, has heightened tensions,” he noted.
Mr. Kalenteridis pointed out that there has also been a shift in rhetoric from the Greek government.
“There has been an increase in the intensity of the rhetoric from both the prime minister and the Greek foreign minister,” he said.
As Mr. Kalenteridis noted, “there are views that suggest that Athens’ shift in rhetoric is, while a response to Turkey’s actions on the ground, but there are also views in Athens that link this shift in rhetoric to the pre-election period, as Greece has now entered that phase.”
When asked whether Greece is in a position of strength vis-à-vis Turkey, Mr. Kalenteridis replied that “I believe that, in terms of strategic weapons, Greece is currently in a better position than Turkey.”
“I’m not talking about the quantity of weapons, I’m not talking about unmanned systems—I’m talking about strategic weapons,” he clarified.
Regarding the Greece-Israel agreement on the “Achilles Shield,” he noted that this agreement gives Greece an advantage at both the operational and geopolitical levels.
As he said, on an operational level, “it can counter missile, air, and unmanned aerial vehicle threats.”
On a geopolitical level, the Greek defense umbrella overlaps with that of the National Guard in Cyprus and Israel’s, and there is interoperability.
“Turkey views this as an encirclement because it creates a secure corridor through which the IMEC can pass through this region—a corridor that Turkey wants to torpedo,” he explained.
He added that Turkey considers the Greece-Cyprus electricity interconnection (the GSI project) to be part of the IMEC.
Finally, when asked to assess whether Greek-Turkish relations would improve or deteriorate, Mr. Kalenteridis stated that the issue of the cable will play a crucial role, noting that a solution may have been found that satisfies Turkey to some extent.
He added that the introduction of the “Blue Homeland” bill would also play a crucial role, which he characterized as “blue schizophrenia,” as, he said, it will create a new framework within which Greek-Turkish relations will evolve.
As he explained, the bill will assign missions and duties to various Turkish ministries.
“Given that ‘blue schizophrenia’ whose map covers a vast area, if these Turkish government agencies attempt to carry out the missions outlined in the bill, Greece will have to take measures on the ground, and this will create a constant climate of tension—and we cannot say at this point where it might lead.”
“In any case, I believe this bill could change everything in Greek-Turkish relations,” he concluded.
