The clock is ticking, and the energy corridors are showing the way
An imaginary arc stretching from Israel to Greece through Cyprus on two levels: energy and defense. On the defense level, this imaginary line is drawn between three domes—three national air defense systems. Greece’s “Achilles Shield” extends to Cyprus, and its interoperability with Cypriot and Israeli systems is a game-changer for the regional balance of power.
The Greece–Israel agreement to create “Achilles’ Shield” places Cyprus—which is already equipped with the advanced Israeli BARAK MX anti-missile system—at the core of the new security architecture in the Eastern Mediterranean.
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The goal is the full integration of the three systems: radars capable of tracking hundreds of targets simultaneously, will feed data into a unified control center, which will identify and assess each threat and assign its neutralization to the most appropriate interception system.
Energy Sector
On the energy front, the clock is ticking for the laying of the undersea cable connecting Cyprus – Greece, with plans to extend it to Israel along the same route.
The NAVTEX issued by Athens regarding the resumption of bathymetric surveys for the GSI is scheduled for between October 15 and 26, and behind the scenes, tough negotiations are underway, while tensions are mounting in the turbulent waters of the Eastern Mediterranean.
Athens has made it clear that the operations will proceed without Turkish approval, while Ankara is demanding prior written notification. The solution ultimately favored by Athens and Paris is for the NAVTEX to be accompanied by a notification to Turkey from the French government, in order to defuse the reactions.
The question that arises for Athens, however, is whether this notification will ultimately be interpreted by Ankara as Turkish permission, thereby cementing the status quo in the maritime areas it claims as its own continental shelf.
Tensions Are Rising
In any case, Athens, Nicosia, and Paris have mapped out various scenarios in the event of a heated incident in the maritime area between the Dodecanese and Cyprus.
The milder scenario involves Turkey issuing an illegal NAVTEX, while the more adverse one involves Ankara dispatching naval units in order to prevent the surveys from taking place, as it had done in July 2024 off the coast of Kasos.
The next 10 days will be decisive for the final outcome, while a concentration of Greek and French naval assets is expected in the Kasos area.
Vote of Confidence
Speaking from Athens, Marco Rubio expressed his confidence in the power interconnection project, highlighting its benefits for the EU’s energy security within the framework of the India – Middle East – Europe (IMEC), which is being planned by the U.S. as a counterweight to China’s Silk Road.
But what will Washington do if tensions escalate? The head of the State Department hinted that he would not allow matters to reach a breaking point between two NATO allies and that he would use U.S. diplomatic clout to overcome any potential Turkishobjections.
The architect of the 3+1
As early as 2021, Marco Rubio, then a senator, had collaborated with Robert Menendez to promote the Greece–Israel – Cyprus, and the United States in the Eastern Mediterranean through the 3+1 framework, and was one of the authors of the East Med Act in 2020, which strengthened U.S. engagement in security and energy cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The 3+1 is now returning as a powerful geopolitical multilateral framework in the areas of energy, electrical and digital interconnections, and regional security.
Troubled Waters
For the time being, Turkey’s reaction to the GSI is manifested by the departure of the research vessel Oruç Reis on October 1 off the coast of Kyrenia, for the new phase of surveys for the natural gas pipeline to the occupied territories.
From the air, sea, and land, Turkey is besieging Cypriot territory. In Deneia, provocations by the occupying army continue, aimed at creating new facts on the ground in the buffer zone, while in the Nicosia FIR, violations by Turkish aircraft are escalating, as is the harassment of Greek F-16 Viper jets stationed in Paphos since last March, and even passenger planes.
In a show of force, a squadron of Turkish F-16s, accompanied by aerial refueling aircraft, conducted overflights south of Cyprus as part of the “Thalassolykos” air and naval exercise.
Shift in the Balance of Power
The rift in Turkish–Israeli relations, Ankara’s shift toward a less Western-oriented foreign policy, and the conflicts in the Middle East, have shifted the balance of power in the region and bolstered Cyprus’s geostrategic role, elevating it to the status of a strategic partner of the U.S.
Washington’s recent decision to extend the lifting of the arms embargo on the Republic of Cyprus for another year provoked a furious reaction from Ankara. At the same time, six months after the wave of solidarity that followed the attack on Akrotiri and the protective umbrella they established around Cyprus, the allies marched alongside the armed forces to honor Cyprus Independence Day.
This presence sent a clear message about the level of defense cooperation between the Republic of Cyprus and the countries in the region, as well as its international partners.
The Nicosia–Athens–Cairo Axis
At the same time, Cyprus and Greece have open channels of communication with the Arab world. The activation of the Mecca Pact between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey does not appear to have strained relations with Cairo. On the contrary, it has highlighted the strong ties with Egypt, which remained outside the Mecca framework by keeping its distance from Turkey’s hegemonic ambitions in the Middle East.
The trilateral summit in El Alamein, the 6th Trilateral Meeting of Defense Ministers that followed, and the Greece–Egypt joint air and naval exercise “Medusa,” off the coast of Crete, in areas where Ankara asserts its claims through the illegal Turkish-Libyan memorandum, cemented Cairo’s military cooperation with Nicosia and Athens.
The Egyptian Air Force’s CN-295 transport aircraft was the highlight of Cairo’s participation in the celebrations for Cyprus Independence Day, in which an Egyptian military contingent also participated.
