The first matches of the three Cypriot teams in the third qualifying round of the Europa League and the Conference League resulted in a major “away win” (1-0) by Apollon over Brann, a 1-1 draw between Omonia and Lincoln, and a 1-0 loss by Pafos to Salzburg.
The “Football Meets Data” prediction algorithm used simulations to calculate the chances of advancing for our three representatives ahead of the second legs.
ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΑΡΘΡΑ
The “Blue-and-Whites,” as expected, are the favorites and therefore have a 75% chance of advancing to the next round of the Conference League.
11 out of 26 matchups in
UECL Q3 (Main Path) have a favorite with a 98%+ chance of advancing after the first legs.
Three and
two teams
are among them.
AdvertisementA full breakdown of probabilities and scenarios for all teams in UEFA qualifiers is available in our
Simulator pic.twitter.com/d16VMEX6WN
— Football Meets Data (@fmeetsdata) August 7, 2026
On the other hand, the “Greens” may not have gotten the result they wanted against the Gibraltar team, but at GSP Stadium with their fans behind them, they remain the heavy favorites. Specifically, they have a 92% chance of advancing to the next round of the Europa League.
Meanwhile, the Paphos-based team lost in Norway and is once again looking to stage a comeback, just as they did in the previous round. Unlike the Nicosia team, the odds of qualifying for the tournament’s playoffs are not in the “Blues’” favor, which is why, with a 33% chance, they’ll need to pull off a major upset.
To qualify for the
UEL playoffs and secure a spot in the group stage (at least in the UECL
AdvertisementA full breakdown of probabilities and scenarios for all teams in the UEFA qualifiers is available in our
— Football Meets Data (@fmeetsdata) August 7, 2026
