The 2026 World Cup isn’t just changing soccer. It’s also changing the race for the Ballon d’Or. The tournament has completely upended the balance of power, transforming the award from a “season-long prize” into a “summer prize.” The candidates’ odds have skyrocketed or plummeted within a few weeks, and the race now resembles a shifting landscape that changes after every whistle.

According to Betfair data, the picture before the World Cup and the picture after the Round of 16 are worlds apart. Harry Kane is now at the top of the predictions with 22.27%, followed by Kylian Mbappé with 19.3%. Further back, but still in the running, are Ousmane Dembélé and Michael Olise at 12.06%, while Lionel Messi—yes, Messi—has made a strong comeback with a 10.34% chance of winning the ninth Ballon d’Or of his career.

The Argentine is the star of this turnaround. Before the World Cup, his odds of winning the award were just 0.94%. Following his performances in the tournament, that probability has surged by… 966%. An unprecedented surge that proves the Ballon d’Or remains deeply tied to the World Cup, no matter how much the award’s organizers try to present it as “annual” institution.

Kylian Mbappé has also seen a surge. His seven goals in the tournament have boosted his odds by 342%, despite a season with Real Madrid that was modest—by his own standards. Jude Bellingham has seen his odds skyrocket by 565%, while Erling Haaland, with an impressive World Cup for Norway, has boosted his chances by 243%.

On the other hand, there are also the tournament’s underperformers. Players who arrived at the World Cup off the back of an exceptional season but failed to replicate their form on the international stage. Kvaratskhelia has seen his odds drop by 33%, Vitinha by 25.9%, and Désiré Doué by 10.7%. This clearly illustrates that the Ballon d’Or does not forgive those who fail to shine on the world’s biggest soccer stage.

Paris Saint-Germain is perhaps the most striking example of this shift. Before the World Cup, it had five players among the top ten favorites. After the tournament, only Dembélé and Olise remain in the picture. Kvaratskhelia, Vitinha, and Doué have fallen significantly out of favor, while other players such as Declan Rice, Rayan Cherki, and Federico Valverde have paid the price for their lackluster performances with their national teams.

The World Cup has become a catalyst that changes everything. The Ballon d’Or is no longer the award of the season. It is the award of the moment. And that moment belongs to those who shine at the world’s greatest soccer spectacle.

*photo source: AR