The rise of Nigel Farage and Reform UK has set off alarm bells in the Celtic countries, with political leaders in Ireland, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales beginning to prepare for a scenario that until recently seemed unthinkable: the breakup of the United Kingdom.

The possibility that Farage could become prime minister or even emerge as leader of the official opposition after the next election is causing intense concern both among unionists, who want to keep the United Kingdom together, as well as among nationalists, who seek to leave it.

According to a BBC analysis now being discussed in political circles across the British and Irish political spectrum, a government led by Farage could dramatically accelerate developments: from a hasty referendum on Irish reunification to a hard-line, Trump-style anti-immigration policy, which would further alienate the Celtic nations from London. Even the prospect of a strong Reform UK serving as the official opposition or as a coalition partner is considered enough to cause political instability.

Former Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford, who has repeatedly stated that he will fight to preserve the Union, warned that politics in Britain has changed in a fundamental and perhaps irreversible way. As he put it, it is possible that “in just a few years,” citizens on the island of Ireland will look across the Irish Sea and see a country where ICE-style groups, based on the American model, are arresting people on the streets.

Drakeford believes that if Farage makes it to Downing Street or if Reform UK significantly increases its parliamentary strength from the eight seats it currently holds, there may “not be time” for a calm and organized discussion about the future of the United Kingdom. “The United Kingdom is a voluntary union of four nations, and in any voluntary union there must be options to stay and options to leave,” he noted.

The warnings were issued at a conference in Belfast organized by the SDLP, where political figures from the United Kingdom and Ireland expressed concern that developments could suddenly lead to a referendum on Irish unification, without the necessary preparation. Ireland’s Minister of Justice, Jim O’Callaghan, argued that Dublin must begin preparing for reunification, rather than waiting for English nationalism to dictate the timeline.

“The future may not follow the predictable path of discussions and harmony,” said O’Callaghan, expressing concern that a potential rise of Farage could create a fait accompli much more quickly than what the governments in London and Dublin had anticipated to date.

At the heart of these concerns lies the economic issue of Northern Ireland. The annual British grant to Northern Ireland is estimated to range from 6 to 20 billion pounds, and Irish politicians fear that Farage could turn this into a political slogan similar to the Brexit claim that EU membership cost Britain 350 million pounds a week.

“Just wait until he sees our bill,” said SDLP leader Claire Hanna. As she noted, if English nationalists focus on the resources required by Northern Ireland, the issue could turn into a “political football” and a serious political problem.

Hanna emphasized that Brexit served as a lesson in how not to carry out a constitutional change. Since then, she said, British politics has changed structurally, and the Farage phenomenon can no longer be considered a passing trend. “We can no longer say that the Nigel Farage phenomenon is a flash in the pan. Unfortunately, it is now a defining feature of British politics. So it is wise to think about our own constitutional future and not be mere passengers in the direction politics takes us,” he said.

Sinn Féin, which has come out in favor of a referendum on Irish reunification —a process that any British government can initiate—insists that such a development must be preceded by consultation and preparation. “We cannot take a chance on whatever might come next from London,” said Conor Murphy, a former finance minister at Stormont and current senator in Ireland.

Murphy estimates that the actual grant to Northern Ireland is less than 6 billion pounds, but he acknowledges that Farage could exploit the 20 billion figure politically. “He could say: ‘We’ll save all that by letting the Irish go—good luck and goodbye.’ I’m not saying he’ll do it, but that’s the nature of their politics. It’s Trump-like. It’s unpredictable,” he noted.

Sinn Féin is calling on Dublin to begin a dialogue with British institutions “while there’s still someone sane in Whitehall,” in order to clarify the terms and conditions of a possible referendum. The goal, as Murphy said, is to establish the groundwork and rules so that the process is protected from the chaos that may arise in the future.

In a similar vein, Fine Gael, a party in Ireland’s governing coalition, recently announced that it will present a plan for a united Ireland at its annual conference in November. Former Prime Minister and former Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar, stated that he does not consider a Farage-led government likely, but if it were to happen, he believes Ireland could be suddenly forced into a referendum.

According to Varadkar, a Reform government could accelerate these developments by “doubling down” Brexit, arguing that it failed because it wasn’t implemented strictly enough, and would seek to distance itself even further from the European Union. In this context, the revival of issues such as withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights could reopen fundamental questions regarding the Good Friday Agreement.

Farage has stated that he wishes to withdraw from the ECHR and renegotiate the Good Friday Agreement, which the Convention institutionally underpins, with the aim of addressing the arrival of small boats in England. This position is causing deep concern in Northern Ireland, as it strikes at the heart of the postwar constitutional balance.

Significantly, in their 15th survey on the United Kingdom, the EU, and Northern Ireland, professors at Queen’s University Belfast, Katie Hayward and David Finnmore, noted that support for leaving the ECHR is higher in Northern Ireland, at 36%, compared to 29% across the United Kingdom as a whole. This finding suggests that the debate surrounding the ESDC, immigration, and the Good Friday Agreement may be even more complex than politicians in London anticipate.

The debate over the breakup of the United Kingdom is no longer confined to nationalist circles. The prospect of Reform UK’s rise has led even pro-Union politicians to acknowledge that the British constitutional issue could be abruptly opened up without the necessary planning. Ireland, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales no longer view the scenario of the United Kingdom’s dissolution as a theoretical exercise, but as a possibility that requires preparation.

Source: protothema.gr