Why Erhurman Rejected Christodoulides’ Offer of Assistance, Ankara’s Role, and the MOU’s Missed Opportunity
It was only natural that the drowning of so many people—and especially the circumstances under which the tragedy unfolded on the shores of occupied Kyrenia—would cause strong political ripples, even in a unique case such as the so-called Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΑΡΘΡΑ
The sinking of the boat highlighted what Turkish Cypriots had been discussing, writing about, and thinking about: Namely, that they are governed by a group of officials from Ankara whose primary concern is to turn the northern part of Cyprus into a Turkish province, yet at the same time are plagued by incompetence and inadequacy and are embroiled in corruption scandals.
And how they must finally rid themselves of them. Voices of anguish that forced Erdoğan himself to issue clear instructions to expel from the “government” Erhan Arikli—the person politically responsible for this tragedy—leading to the ouster of both him and his party, the Settlers.
This simultaneously triggered a political crisis, the scope of which, however, appears at first glance to be under Erdoğan’s own control.
The missed opportunity, the “Titanic” of the MOE, and the “Erhurman” dilemma
The immediate mobilization of decision-making centers in the Turkish capital, in response to the shipwreck off Kyrenia, was what thwarted any prospect of the most powerful confidence-building measure.
That of humanity and solidarity. Before Tufan Erhurman had a chance to respond to Nikos Christodoulides’ messages for help, Turkish helicopters and special vessels were already on their way to the site of the shipwreck.
The Turkish Cypriot leader, in fact, did not have much to think about regarding the proposal from his Greek Cypriot counterpart.
First, he was facing an unprecedented situation, with panic and despair prevailing. Second, he had no authority to allow search and rescue forces from the Republic of Cyprus to approach the site. There was no consensus on such a move, neither from the so-called government nor, more importantly, from Ankara.
And third, even if it had agreed, the Republic of Cyprus was, in practice, unable to provide assistance. The depth at which the ship was located was an insurmountable obstacle, and there was no possibility of achieving anything. Therefore, any positive gesture on his part would have been purely for public relations purposes. His interlocutor’s approach was also considered to be purely for public relations purposes.
Not even a lifeline…
The whole affair, as it unfolded, was yet another link in the United Nations’ chain of concern, especially at a time when the UN Secretary-General’s initiative is underway.
A United Nations source told *Alpha tis Kyriakis* that that there could be no worse timing for this lack of basic trust to come to light, just as António Guterres is scrambling to find a foothold to convene a five-party conference.
“Not a single path, not even a lifeline,” was the official’s exact statement, though he added that what happened came as no surprise to anyone, neither in Cyprus nor in New York…
The question, therefore, is now what happens next. Sources in the occupied territories told “Alpha on Sunday” that they believe the political crisis will not affect the Cyprus issue. The United Nations’ actions also support this view.
The international organization is already preparing for the new leaders’ meeting on September 9, as it has received no requests to postpone the meeting again. Even more telling is the fact that Maria Olgin is arriving in Cyprus on Thursday, the 10th of the month.
This underscores that the plans in New York have not changed at all. “The only way to put things on hold is to hold elections soon in the northern part of the island, in the wake of the tragedy. Such a move would prevent talks from taking place, while also buying Ankara time until Guterres leaves,” was the assessment of journalistic circles in the occupied territories, as reported on Alpha TV on Sunday.
This is a remote scenario, as holding elections at this exact time would result in Erhurman and his Republican People’s Party emerging as the absolute dominant force. This is something the Turkish leadership does not want; it has done everything in its power to help his political opponents by announcing costly infrastructure projects.
And a victory that is considered a certainty, despite Erhurman’s unfathomable political blunder of hugging Arikli in front of the cameras.
Water in our boat…
Even before the great tragedy, it was clear that the Cyprus issue was taking on water. The intensification of meetings is not enough for the UN, with Guterres’s spokesperson clearly stating that the Secretary-General wants serious discussions to move forward.
The UN General Assembly at the end of the month is not expected to yield any developments, despite the fact that Guterres will meet with both Christodoulides and Erhurman.
Perhaps the most interesting question is whether the Portuguese leader will reaffirm his intention to convene a conference before he leaves, or if he will imply that his hopes sank along with the ship off the coast of occupied Kyrenia.
