The Strong Cards Left Out and Guterres’ Strategy
The Cyprus issue is in a time crunch, given that António Guterres has less than 45 days of active diplomacy left to bring about, if he is allowed to breathe new life into the Cyprus issue. Through their decision to simultaneously open the two checkpoints at Kampos and Louroujina, the two leaders managed to secure yet another meeting with the UN Secretary-General. However, the hope is that the meeting will not simply be a farewell gathering with wishes for “good luck”…
Behind the Decisions
ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΑΡΘΡΑ
Essentially, the two leaders, in the presence of Maria Olgin, succeeded in opening two checkpoints that are not their strongest cards and, objectively speaking, are not worthy of fanfare, since they do not significantly address the needs of Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots. Other confidence-building measures may have been added to the list—which are, in any case, welcome— but on the other hand, these are roadblocks that, based on objective criteria, were not the top priority for either side. The guiding principle, on the one hand, was to lock in something that would maintain momentum. And then, that something would be able to convince the Secretary-General to hold yet another trilateral meeting.
Plan B: Kampos–Karavostasi
Until recently, the roadblock at Kampos (Tsakiastra–Karavostasi) was not even an option for the Greek Cypriot side. It was included in the President of the Republic’s 19-point plan and was brought to the table as recently as last September following a request from the approximately 200 residents of the area to the Minister of Foreign Affairsto end their isolation.
On the maps obtained by “Alpha tis Kyriakis,” the route through the buffer zone is shown to be 1.98 kilometers long, passing through an extremely rugged area of mountains and hills, which will take years and significant expense to make passable.
Diplomatic sources acknowledge that it was indeed a temporary alternative for Kokkina, as a quick solution that could lay the groundwork—albeit modestly—for the future of the entire process.
The opening of the Kokkina roadblock was not only a topic of discussion during the Christodoulides administration, but it was also brought to the table under the Christofias and Anastasiades administrations, only to be blocked by vetoes from Turkey and, subsequently, the pseudo-state.
Given the current circumstances, it is almost impossible to expect that Ankara would give the green light for “lose” one of its military zones and a key historical geographical landmark for Turkish Cypriots. Following the bicommunal riots of 1963–64, Kokkina was one of the strongest and most historic Turkish Cypriot enclaves, with direct access to the sea and a direct link to Turkey.
Despite Ms. Olgin’s statement that “Kokkina was never on the table,” government sources report that during the two expanded conferences in Geneva and New York in 2025, they were the subject of discussion and negotiation. However, they were treated the same way then as they are today. In fact, individuals who were present when the negotiators laid their cards on the table told “Alpha on Sunday” that as soon as the Red side’s proposals were put on the table, the Turkish foreign minister made a negative gesture with his face, even before the discussion began, thus dashing all hope. On the other hand, the Turkish Cypriot leader maintains to this day that the maps he received from Ersin Tatar did not list the Kokkina area as a geographical point for negotiation.
Athienou—the “Bridge of Arta”
The Greek Cypriot side has long prioritized the opening of the Athienou-Pyroi-Aglantzia roadblock. A road approximately 12 kilometers long that has also weathered countless setbacks, with two compromise proposals submitted by the UN with the consent of the Greek Cypriot side, only to be subsequently rejected.
While it was expected that the final route would be finalized, Tufan Erhurman, on Monday—having received instructions from Hakan Fidan during his visit to Cyprus—attempted to trade Athenou for the opening of the Arsos– Pyla road, the roadblock at Mia Milia, and those at Kampos and Louroutzina as a package deal. The argument was that he could open part of the road to facilitate Turkish Cypriot access to Pyla.
This is the road where the clashes took place during the Kyanokranon incident in August 2023. In October of that same year, a memorandum of understanding was signed between the two sides, under the auspices of the UN, with specific terms that the government is convinced the Turkish Cypriot leader is violating through this proposal. For example, he is ignoring the provision calling for the construction of 400 homes and the development of the area.
Regarding Athenou, at Monday’s meeting he also reintroduced a proposal for an exit from Geri instead of Aglantzia. At the same time, he questioned who would be responsible for the section of the road within the no-go zone in the event of criminal acts or traffic accidents. At the same time, according to reports, he received the response that if a Greek Cypriot is involved in a crime or accident, the Police and the prosecuting authorities of the Republic of Cyprus, whereas in the case of a Turkish Cypriot, the so-called authorities of the pseudo-state would take action. This arrangement also applies to the other roadblocks.
Ultimately, Tufan Erhurman succeeded at the meeting in securing the opening of the Louroutzina-Lympia checkpoint. The route along the buffer zone spans a distance of 299.14 meters. The road to be constructed will, to some extent, benefit Turkish Cypriots, as it connects the illegal airport in Tymbou with the Nicosia–Larnaca highway. However, even with this benefit, it would not be the same as if the Mia Milia roadblock were opened. Mia Milia would relieve traffic congestion at the Agios Dometios checkpoint, while also providing access to nearly the center of Nicosia.
Diplomatic sources estimate that the two leaders agreed on their second-choice options in order to keep their “strong cards”— namely Athenou and Mia Milia, as topics for future discussions based on the principle of reciprocity.
Unfulfilled Expectations
The expectations that had been raised prior to the meeting were much greater than what was ultimately achieved. According to the Turkish news agency ANKA, which is sympathetic to the personal envoy of Mr.had previously announced a package of measures that would include the opening of four checkpoints as well as an agreement on demining along the buffer zone. Ultimately, however, Fidan’s visit to the occupied territories three days before the leaders’ meeting likely put the brakes on—rather than facilitated—the opening of all four roadblocks.
“Alpha on Sunday” contacted well-informed sources on the Greek Cypriot side starting last Friday, November 6. The information indicated that the opening of all four checkpoints and other low-level political measures were a certainty. The only issue on which considerable reservations were expressed from the outset was demining, since the message received was indeed that it would be very difficult to reach an agreement.
The reason was the Turkish Cypriot side’s demand for direct communication between the commander of the National Guard and the so-called “commander” of the armed forces of the occupying army. This is something the Republic of Cyprus cannot accept.
Expectations from the trilateral meeting
All eyes remain fixed on the meeting between the two leaders and the UN Secretary-General. The agenda for the discussion could not possibly focus on confidence-building measures yet again. After all, confidence-building measures have been on the agenda for unblocking the process for the past two years.
Well-informed diplomatic sources report that António Guterres will attempt to present a roadmap to both sides, with preparatory steps that could lead to the resumption of talks and pave the way for a new five-party meeting. This scenario is unlikely to gain traction during Guterres’s tenure.
His goal is to hand over to his successor something tangible in terms of substance, so that the successor can build upon the foundations he finds. However, if no further progress is made at the trilateral meeting, then the future of both the process and the special envoy herself will be in doubt. Maria Olgin’s contract expires at the end of December, and she is set to step down along with the UN Secretary-General. The possibility of her remaining in her position will be more likely if the way is paved for further developments. However, reports from Sunday’s edition of Alpha indicate that despite the positive atmosphere of recent meetings, the President of the Republic still harbors some bitterness regarding her overall stance.
