Countries in Eastern and Southern Africa are already preparing to cope with the El Niño phenomenon (El Niño), as forecasts suggest the impacts will be more devastating than in previous years, with the potential for millions of people in the region to be displaced.
According to a report by the Spanish news agency Efe, the United Nations warned on July 30 that this year’s El Niño “will be unprecedented.” This is a phenomenon that the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) attributes to the “unusually warm” waters of the Pacific Ocean.
ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΑΡΘΡΑ
El Niño is a shift in atmospheric dynamics caused by rising temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
This phenomenon will soon manifest itself either as torrential rains or a lack of rainfall, depending on the country, Jully Ouma, head of the Regional Early Warning Systems Program at the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)’s Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC), told the EFE news agency.
While rising temperatures and drought will primarily affect Djibouti, Sudan, and South Sudan, countries such as Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, Somalia, Tanzania, and parts of Ethiopia will face flooding.
Experts estimate that the phenomenon will peak between November and December, although its effects may last until February 2027.
“If we are not adequately prepared, the number of displaced people will reach the millions. However, if countries are well prepared, the number of displaced people is expected to be limited to a few thousand,” says Ouma from her office at ICPAC headquarters in Kajiado County, on the border with Nairobi, where the situation in East Africa is being monitored.
According to data from the Danish Refugee Council (DRC), the worst-case scenario predicts up to three million displaced people by the end of 2026, with a particularly severe impact on Somalia and Kenya.
However, Ouma remains calm, noting that some countries, such as Kenya, Somalia, and Uganda, are “well prepared.”
Kenya and Somalia on High Alert
On September 1, Kenya’s Ministry of Internal Affairs announced in detail measures such as mapping areas at risk of flooding and landslides, as well as cleaning drainage systems.
At the same time, efforts are underway to raise public awareness in high-risk areas, inspect infrastructure, establish community-based early warning systems, and the delivery of emergency supplies. For its part, the Somali Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA) also warned on September 1 that heavy rainfall poses “significant risks” to a country experiencing prolonged drought, instability, and conflict.
Subsequently, SoDMA issued a national alert, activated coordination mechanisms among various federal agencies and humanitarian partners, and launched early warning and public awareness campaigns regarding the risks.
“Over the years, countries have gained a great deal of knowledge (…). We now see that many countries are intensively preparing to mitigate the negative impacts. In general, I would say that countries are making significant efforts to prepare,” Masilin Gudoshava, a climate scientist at ICPAC, told the EFE news agency.
Droughts in Southern Africa
In the southern part of the continent, the impacts will manifest as a lack of rainfall and high temperatures, Izidine Pinto, a principal researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) specializing in southern Africa, explained to EFE.
“Beyond the humanitarian aspect, the phenomenon could affect nearly every sector of the country. Essentially, it affects anything that depends on water,” explains Pinto.
Southern Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Lesotho, Mozambique, and Namibia may see their food production sectors affected, just as farmers are preparing their land for planting.
Although each country has its own emergency response plans, these focus on conserving water resources, safeguarding food reserves, and investing in drought-resistant seeds.
The Government of Mozambique announced on July 16 that it would increase the use of groundwater for irrigating farmland, while also mobilizing resources to support farmers and distribute drought-resistant seeds.
Zambia’s Ministry of Agriculture is also promoting practices such as strategic management of grain reserves, the expansion of irrigation and water management initiatives, soil-conservation agriculture, minimizing soil tillage, leaving crop residues in the field, and proper crop rotation.
“If it doesn’t rain,” Pinto concludes, “agriculture suffers, and, as a result, the consequences multiply. There will be less food, prices will likely rise, and malnutrition and disease will worsen. The effects may last for months or years, depending on the region and the vulnerability of the population.”
Source: KYPE
