"The impact of the El Niño phenomenon on Europe and the Mediterranean is indirect. Through changes in atmospheric circulation, it can affect the location and intensity of downbursts, the tracks of barometric lows, the frequency of anticyclonic blockages, and the transport of heat and moisture. These changes could alter the distribution of precipitation and temperature in the Eastern Mediterranean.”
This is what Athanasios Argyriou, professor of physics at the University of Patras and the Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, stated, among other things, in an interview with the Athenian – Macedonian News Agency, on how the El Niño phenomenon may affect the weather in the Eastern Mediterranean.
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As the professor adds, “the international literature documents that El Niño is linked to changes in atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic and Europe, but the response varies depending on the season and from one episode to another,” and he continues:
“Furthermore, scientific studies over the past twenty-five years have identified statistically significant relationships between the El Niño phenomenon and precipitation in parts of the Mediterranean, as well as between El Niño and the frequency of atmospheric disturbances in the Euro-Mediterranean region. “However, these relationships vary depending on the season and the time period under consideration,” the professor noted.
“These relationships, however, are not constant over time; they vary both by season and across different regions of the Mediterranean. For example, different—and even opposite—correlations have been identified between El Niño and precipitation in the western and eastern Mediterranean. Furthermore, it has been found that the relationship between El Niño and the frequency of atmospheric disturbances in the Euro-Mediterranean region varies on timescales of more than a decade,” he added.
Regarding the phenomenon’s impact on the atmosphere and its duration, Athanasios Argyriou notes that “the increased sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific is altering the regions where warm, moist air rises and forms extensive clouds and precipitation. Consequently, tropical atmospheric circulation and the distribution of heat in the atmosphere are altered. These changes can affect atmospheric circulation far beyond the Pacific through large-scale atmospheric waves and changes in jet streams. As a result, certain regions of the planet experience an increased likelihood of specific deviations in temperature or precipitation from normal climatic conditions.”
He further explains that an El Niño event typically lasts about nine to twelve months, although some events may last longer.
“It often develops during the second half of the year, peaks around the Northern Hemisphere winter, and weakens the following spring or summer. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announcement on October 8, 2026, the current episode is intensifying and will likely remain strong to very strong throughout the winter of 2026. Specifically for the period from November 2026 through January 2027, the probability that the ongoing phenomenon will exceed in intensity any previous event dating back to 1950 is estimated at 70%. “The intensity of the phenomenon, however, does not automatically translate into impacts of comparable intensity and scope in every country,” he adds.
Source: CNA
