Party dynamics surrounding the presidential election and the looming comeback
“AKEL is called upon, once again in its history, to undertake a critical task: the task of progressive change. […] It is our conviction that, in the run-up to the upcoming presidential elections, a majority social movement can be created to achieve progressive change. “We are working to build this majority movement.”
In this way, Stefanos Stefanou, speaking from the podium at the event marking the 100th anniversary of AKEL’s founding, kicked off the internal party processes leading up to 2028.
ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΑΡΘΡΑ
Processes that many consider to be long overdue. Not so, however, for the party leadership.
Unlike the Democratic Alarm, for Ezekia Papaioannou, the “presidential” chapter has not yet officially opened within the party’s collective bodies. This is not the result of inaction, but a clear strategic choice.
The clouds of civil strife hanging over Pindarou Street and the image of a deeply fractured right wing are viewed by AKEL as a strategic advantage, as they afford the party time to carefully assess the political landscape. An in-depth study of all the data and parameters gives AKEL the opportunity to avoid making hasty decisions, such as those that appear to have cost the party dearly in the past.
The Goal Is… the Hill
In his speech last Wednesday, Stefanos Stefanou set out the framework within which the Left’s chosen candidate must operate. According to the General Secretary of AKEL, the party will not consider a candidacy that does NOT:
– prioritize a solution to the Cyprus problem based on the DDO,
– serve the current model of governance,
and– serve the interests of the few, perpetuating the shadows of corruption and collusion that have marred the Anastasiades – Synagermou – Christodoulides administrations.
Ezekia Papaioannou’s stated goal is a return to power, two decades after the Christofias administration—which proved painful for the party in terms of its outcome. As a senior AKEL official told “Alpha on Sunday,” “All efforts will revolve around selecting a candidate who can win. Neither we, nor the country, nor the party can afford to spend a fourth five-year term in the opposition.”
This, moreover, should also be considered a personal goal of Stefanos Stefanou. Given that he will retire in 2030 and step down from his position as General Secretary, he wishes to hand over an AKEL that is strong, a leading force, and — above all — back in power.
Short list
For Ezekia Papaioannou, naming names is taboo, which is why AKEL officials are keeping their cards tightly under wraps, waiting to submit their proposals to the collective bodies once the “presidential” chapter is officially opened.
At this point, however, there are two names considered the leading contenders for AKEL’s nomination: Stefanos Stefanou and Andreas Mavroyiannis. The former as the party’s leader. The latter as a proven choice who, under the circumstances and against the odds, achieved an exceptional result in 2023. As a result, for many he is the safest choice, making him the clear favorite to secure the nomination.
In the immediate future, during discussions with the party’s grassroots, it is possible that other figures may join the field of candidates. However, the name of Nicosia Mayor Charalambos Prountzos is also being mentioned in private conversations from time to time, possibly due to his successful collaboration with AKEL in the local elections. Information obtained by “Alpha on Sunday” from Ezekia Papaioannou, however, considers such a scenario unlikely.
As if it had been planned for some time
The lunch between Stefanos Stefanou and Andreas Mavroyiannis at a well-known restaurant in Nicosia in late August was not limited solely to developments in the Cyprus issue and current events.
The presence at the table of Panikos Papanikolaou—one of Andreas Mavroyiannis’s closest associates and director of his campaign staff for the 2023 election— suggests that the presidential election was also on the main agenda.
Andreas Mavrogiannis has never hidden his interest in running again for the Presidency of the Republic, something he has, in fact, expressed in public statements over the past few months.
Speaking with Evangelos Agapiou of Alpha last Wednesday, Mr. Mavrogiannis stated: “I believe that the conditions regarding the possibility of winning the election are favorable. I feel that my decision must be made soon, given that people have expectations.” This confirms—indirectly but clearly—reports suggesting that he is planning to announce his independent candidacy before the end of 2026.
Andreas Mavrogiannis’s relationship with Ezekia Papaioannou is described as excellent. His public support for AKEL in the parliamentary elections, his support for Andris Hatzandreou’s candidacy for Deputy Mayor of Aglantzia, as well as his consistent presence at the party’s events and initiatives, further strengthened the Left’s regard for him.
Mavrogiannis’s Rationale
What seems to be propelling Andreas Mavrogiannis toward a dynamic comeback is none other than the polls. His acceptance within the Left, his support from prominent figures in progressive circles, as well as his appeal even among center-right voters, give the impression that, under certain conditions, a Mavrogiannis candidacy could be successful.
For this very reason, the former negotiator on the Cyprus issue appears to be on track to announce his candidacy before AKEL completes its internal party processes. In this way, he will emphasize the independent nature of his candidacy, a move that, according to assessments, could make it easier for certain circles to align with him.
Many view such a move as an attempt to preempt the Left’s decisions by binding it to his candidacy. Unless, of course, his current thoughts and actions are in full consultation with AKEL—something many are implying.
Andreas Mavroyiannis’s final decisions are expected to be made jointly with his close associates, in the very near future upon his return to Cyprus from New York, where he is currently based due to his duties at the UN.
A Long Process
Regardless of Mavroyiannis’s moves, discussions regarding the elections are expected to begin very soon within AKEL. The roadmap to be drawn up by the party’s collective bodies will lead to an election convention in March, where approximately 1,000 delegates will decide on the party’s candidate by secret ballot.
The road to the convening of the electoral convention is expected to be long due to the… bureaucratic process that the Left party follows in accordance with its bylaws.
First, the Central Committee sets the framework, followed by discussions within the parliamentary groups, and then exploratory talks with other parties, organized groups, and prominent figures. In other words, they first assess alliances and attitudes and then lay their cards on the table.
And when the pre-election period begins, the Central Committee has two months to submit one or more nominations to the party base. The feedback is sent back to the Central Committee, which formulates the final proposal that will be presented to the conference.
Dialogue with whom?
The scope for cooperation between AKEL and other political forces currently appears—for various reasons—to be limited.
Democratic Alarm and ELAM are ruled out of the dialogue from the outset. At the same time, DIKO’s participation in the Christodoulides government, as well as the tendency of certain officials to cooperate with DISY, dashes any hope of consensus and cooperation.
The fact that within EDEK and DIPA, calls for their parties to leave the government are growing ever louder leaves the possibility of dialogue open. However, their differences of opinion on a range of policy issues significantly limit the scope for cooperation.
On the other hand, ALMA makes it clear that there is absolutely no possibility of supporting either Stefanos Stefanou or Andreas Mavrogiannis. Despite the fact that Odysseas Michaelides is seeking an independent candidate with no party affiliation, the leaderships of the two parties are expected to meet, although the prospect of cooperation between them seems extremely difficult at this time.
However, there are signs of potential cooperation with VOLT, which is not represented in Parliament. Despite differences in positions, mainly on economic issues and the European perspective, the two parties’ stances on the Cyprus issue as well as on matters of the rule of law are aligned. This reinforces the belief that the two parties are likely to join forces in the presidential race.
An official close to Ezekia Papaioannou, speaking to “Alpha on Sunday,” pointedly noted that “both we and the others must compromise so that we can reach a collaboration aimed at bringing about the change this country needs.”
AKEL’s Moment?
The 2028 election is expected to be crucial for AKEL’s future course. After 15 years in the opposition, the left-wing party must prove that the resurgence it demonstrated in the recent parliamentary elections was not just a flash in the pan.
It must convince the public that it is the only choice that will bring about progressive change in the face of right-wing governance. To achieve this, however, a dynamic candidate alone is not enough. It requires breaking new ground, forming alliances, and breaking free from the shackles of the past.
Now, the Left faces one major challenge: Can AKEL turn this resurgence into a majority movement capable of taking power? If not now… then when?
