Last week, Kyriakos Mitsotakis stated that work on the GSI cable would begin soon. A few days later, the Greek daily Kathimerini revealed a communiqué being prepared by Paris in consultation with Athens, with both sides having already agreed on its content. According to the revelations, a French research vessel would resume the bathymetric surveys that the Turks had halted in the summer of 2024 off the coast of Kasos. The Turkish media reacted to the revelation with restraint, suggesting that Turkey might accept the diplomatic announcement regarding research in areas it claims. In fact, Greek media reports revealed that Athens and Paris were taking into account all possible reactions from Turkey, including both a lack of reaction as well as the need to deploy warships. It took only a few days, however, for Ankara to reiterate its long-standing positions through the Turkish Ministry of Defense, dashing any illusions that Turkey would accept, without objection, the laying of cables on a submerged reef it considers its own.
France’s Involvement
ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΑΡΘΡΑ
For many, the inclusion of the French company Meridiam in the GSI shareholder structure with a 66% stake signaled France’s active involvement in the implementation of the Cyprus-Greece electricity interconnection project. They were not far off the mark. After all, the Greek Prime Minister himself stated on ERT that Athens and Paris have coordinated their efforts since then to move the project forward. The revelations in the Greek newspaper *Kathimerini*, moreover, show exactly that. As is well known, after the expulsion of the Italian research vessels that were conducting bathymetric surveys for the purpose of laying the cable off the coast of Kasos in 2024, efforts were put on hold. The Turkish provocations that summer were nothing more than the fulfillment of the warnings Ankara had been issuing.
Since then, Greece and Turkey have engaged in a series of public statements in which each side made its red lines clear. On the one hand, Athens emphatically stated that it would not seek Turkey’s permission for actions in the region. Doing so would amount to Greek endorsement of Turkey’s claims. On the other hand, Turkey demands that its permission be sought precisely so that it can be granted the rights it believes it possesses. The agreement between Athens and Paris to issue a statement to the coastal states in the region in the form of a diplomatic communiqué therefore seeks to untangle this very Gordian knot: on the one hand, Athens will not request permission, and on the other, Turkey will be informed of the surveys. According to the Greek newspaper Kathimerini, part of the communiqué’s content will state that “a vessel of a specific name, flying the French flag, will conduct surveys for the laying of a cable in unmarked areas.” The reaction of the Turkish media was mild, suggesting that there may be light at the end of the tunnel. “France and Greece are seeking to reduce tensions surrounding the cable,” reported Hurriyet.
Experts on the matter even suggested that Paris’s involvement might not be limited to finding a compromise, but might also extend to exerting influence on Ankara. At the same time, however, Greece is preparing for all possibilities. Either Turkey will accept the development, limiting itself to issuing aNAVTEX, or it seeks clarification, or it does what it did in July 2024—preventing the conduct of surveys by dispatching a warship. Assessments indicate that in the most extreme scenario, Athens is even prepared to dispatch its own vessels to protect the research ship that will be sent to conduct the bathymetric surveys.
Turkey’s “No” and Cyprus’s Absence
Turkey’s negative response came very quickly. Citing the Turkey-Cyprus memorandum, the Spokesperson for the Turkish Ministry of Defense made it clear that the Turks consider this specific area to fall within the territory claimed by Ankara. In his remarks last Thursday, the spokesperson for the Turkish Ministry of Defense, Zeki Akturk, stated: “Under international law, activities such as laying cables or pipelines and conducting surveys on our continental shelf must be coordinated with us in advance. In this context, illegal activities that disregard our country’s rights and interests are not tolerable. Turkey will continue to resolutely protect its rights and interests in its maritime zones.”
This reaction confirms the most extreme and undesirable scenario among those that Athens and Paris had mapped out. This is where a series of questions arise. Are France and Greece ready and willing to reach the point of a heated confrontation with their NATO ally Turkey over the GSI? Greece, in particular, as a neighboring country, has more to lose; it is home to the project’s implementing agency, ADMIE, while its officials have repeatedly stated that the project is for the benefit of Cyprus. Will they spend resources on the military protection of the French research vessel? Will they take steps to further strain the already tense Greek-Turkish relations?
Amid the barrage of questions, obstacles, and issues that existed from the outset and have arisen from recent developments, Cyprus’s role appears to have been reduced to an internal debate focused primarily on the presidential election. The project’s ownership structure has changed, with Cyprus no longer participating in the process beyond being simply kept informed, since everything had already been set in motion. Athens and Paris are expending diplomatic capital to move the explorations forward, even at the risk of military tension, with no indication that Cyprus is participating in any way in the process. All this while Cyprus has not yet decided whether to participate financially in a project that directly concerns it—and, more specifically, the consumers who will be called upon to foot the bill.
