His momentum in the polls and his desire to solidify it, potential alliances, and the pitfall
Andreas Mavroyiannis’s move to make it clear that he is interested in the presidential election and to signal that he will not wait for AKEL’s internal procedures to announce his intentions was enough to spark a flurry of discussions in political circles. Those who know the diplomat well doubted that he did so without at least the tacit approval of AKEL’s leadership. However, those who know the left-wing party and its inner workings well rejected such a scenario. This was confirmed when officials close to Ezekia Papaioannou not only appeared taken aback by the statements but also because some of them expressed displeasure that, in this way, she was either attempting to—or sending the message that she was attempting to box in the party.
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The Trap of Polls
Andreas Mavrogiannis stated in 2023 that he would not run again if he were not elected. However, his strong showing in the second round of the presidential election was enough to rekindle his interest. Moreover, his relationship with Ezekia Papaioannou—setting aside his alignment with Anastasiades regarding the events at the infamous dinner in Crans-Montana—has been excellent throughout this period. This is because the experienced diplomat made sure to stay in touch with the party, publicly support it in the critical battle of the parliamentary elections, and maintain close ties with members of his staff. These moves led many to feel that, despite his initial statements, not only does he not view the possibility of running again negatively, but also that he wants to make himself a visible presence throughout the candidate selection process. The decisive factor, however, in clarifying his intentions was the release of polls such as the one conducted by Pulse on behalf of DISY, which showed that he has momentum.
The Three Reasons
But why did he rush to express interest in the presidential election? One explanation is linked to the momentum shown by the polls. He didn’t want this wave of support to fizzle out; rather, he wanted to lock it in. In the same vein, the timing also played a significant role. Mr. Mavrogiannis did not want to find himself, like the 23rd candidate, facing a fait accompli when the polls had already established Nicos Christodoulides as the frontrunner and dragged the “Interim” candidate along with him. Instead, he wanted to position himself as a potential candidate who could be an option for specific parties, such as the DIPA—where he maintains very good relations with Marios Karoyian—and the EDEK. At the same time, he wanted to shake off the burden of being a party candidate—a candidacy that would depend, just like Malas’s in 2018, on AKEL’s collective decision-making processes.
The Risk and the Example of Achilleas
This move, however, carries the risk of leading to a repeat of the Achilles Dimitriadis situation. It should be recalled that Achilles Dimitriadis had acted in much the same way. In the absence of a candidate list from AKEL, he announced his candidacy, largely expecting that AKEL would rally behind his candidacy. After all, his name had been on AKEL’s table as early as 2018. And while Stefanos Stefanou’s proposal was to support Mr. Dimitriadis for the 2023 presidential election, the political bureau took a different stance. This brought Andreas Mavroyiannis into the picture as the party’s chosen candidate. Today, Andreas Mavrogiannis may also be reassured by the fact that the Leftist party has not yet identified any potential candidates. In this way, he hopes to gain ground and better prepare himself. However, he tends to overlook two important factors that will play a role in the final process.
The first is that AKEL is bothered by the feeling that someone might trap them by preempting their decisions. Along with this, the effusive praise for Averof Neophytou has also caused unease, with party officials believing that such statements box them in and complicate the process. As reported by “Alpha on Sunday,” officials made sure to send the message that it would be best for him to tone things down. However, he himself seemed to tone things down when, in his interview with “Kathimerini,” he made it clear that he would support the AKEL candidate.
A Candidate Who Can Win
The second factor is the momentum of the candidate the party wants. AKEL sees that there is a good chance their candidate will advance to the second round, but that is not their ultimate goal. They want a candidate who can not only secure a respectable share of the vote, but also to win over a significant portion of the center-right vote from the electorate of the candidate or candidates who will be eliminated. Such a scenario could bring AKEL to power after a long period in the opposition. Andreas Mavroyiannis, as party officials say, is a seasoned politician; he is well-versed in Cypriot politics and has a strong base among centrist and progressive voters. The possibility of support from DIKO is fading, but not the possibility of support from DIPA, the Ecologists, EDEK, and VOLT. ALMA, on the other hand, has made it clear that it will not support Mr. Mavrogiannis. But that is not all. Despite the momentum Mr. Mavrogiannis is showing, the question is whether the situation of 2023 will repeat itself. That is, when Averof Neophytou and party officials voted in unison for Mr. Mavrogiannis, thereby boosting his vote share. The prevailing view now is that if the DISY candidate is left out of the running, the party will take a clear stance. The most likely scenario is that it will align with Nicos Christodoulides.
The AKEL Story Repeats Itself
Although DISY is facing a crowded field of candidates that is causing internal strife and disputes, AKEL remains tight-lipped about what will unfold in the presidential election. Neither situation seems healthy. Because if it hasn’t become clear from 2023 until now that there needs to be a group of individuals willing to enter this race, then when exactly will it become clear? Especially considering the convoluted and time-consuming process the party follows. Party officials insist that it is too early to open such a discussion and point out that, unlike in 2023 when they were very late, this time the candidate will be announced in February. Along with the candidate, however, the party’s priorities must also be established. AKEL’s priorities include its political direction and platform, potential coalitions, or a candidate who is positioned far enough to the right to attract the segment of the electorate that the party is currently failing to reach? Ezekia Papaioannou has already begun a round of meetings with parties, such as with DIPA—immediately after the elections—and with EDEK recently, following the election of Ms. Christodoulou Makri. The party’s main goal is to convey the message that it will not act in a way that undermines or divides the country during this difficult time. On the contrary, AKEL is ready to cooperate.
