How the President’s Office is monitoring developments within DISY, the close associates who have taken up positions, and the announcements
The rapid developments within the Democratic Rally have briefly shifted the spotlight away from the President of the Republic, who is following developments in Pindar’s party with great interest. As much as he and his close associates claim it is too early for an election campaign, the reality is that the Presidential Office has long since entered election mode.
The President of the Republic will not make any announcements until he sees the situation become clearer, at least within the two major parties, since their decisions will inevitably affect the “smaller” parties as well. Unless, of course, unexpected developments in a pre-election campaign that resembles a thriller force him to make his announcement sooner. Nikos Christodoulides is waiting—as is customary for a sitting President of the Republic who intends to run for re-election— for all other developments and issues to be resolved before he makes his own announcements.
His close associates are holding regular meetings with the President, with the presidential race on the agenda. Among them is Nikos Katsouridis, who is handling communications along with other aides, and the newly appointed director of his office, Panagiotis Palates, who has taken charge of thein collaboration with the President himself. Deputy Minister to the President Irini Piki is overseeing the implementation of the government’s agenda, increasing pressure on the ministries to deliver immediate results. The goal is to accelerate the implementation of announced measures and improve the President’s image, who is already considering in his mind the people who could join his inner circle and shoulder the responsibility of the election campaign.
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How Much Is the Turmoil in DISY Affecting the Presidency?
Recent developments within DISY have brought some initial relief to the President’s Office, though it would never publicly admit as much. Internal strife and introversion could work in the President’s favor on the road to the presidential election, by drawing disaffected, DISY officials into his camp—officials who still consider him part of their political family.
If Averof Neophytou and Anita Dimitriou both ultimately enter the race, there is a possibility that Nikos Christodoulides will be left with only a small portion of the Synergatiki votes in the first round. There is therefore concern that such a percentage would not easily be enough to secure him a spot in the second round.
Nikos Christodoulides is also watching with interest to see how things will unfold within AKEL, which is expected to have selected its candidate by February. The Left’s candidate, whoever it may be, maintains a certain momentum due to the way the party’s mechanisms operate, and no one knows whether this time Ezekia Papaioannou has an ace up her sleeve. A divided DISY at such a critical juncture is likely to benefit AKEL, depending on the stature of the candidate it ultimately selects.
The President already knows that neither DISY nor AKEL will give him the green light for their support. The “no” he received prior to the reshuffle from key party officials regarding joining his camp, as well as the unexpectedly strong result in the parliamentary elections, have placed obstacles in his path toward 2028.
If DISY’s vote share had declined compared to 2021, he would have appeared ready for a new opening in the party’s leadership. However, the situation changed dramatically after Anita Dimitriou secured 27% of the vote, strengthening her political position. Freed from concerns about the parliamentary elections, DISY decided after the election to oppose the President. Pindarou’s opposition campaign is indeed difficult in the sense that there are very few policy differences between DISY and the President’s office.
He now realizes that without filling his ranks with loyal party members, his reelection will be very difficult. Part of this effort was the appointment of Nikos Tornaritis as his envoy on the Cyprus issue, as well as the retention and strengthening of the cabinet with people who have roots in Pindarou, who have the ability to influence and infiltrate the party, even if most of them have been removed from the party rolls.
The big question is what works in Nicos Christodoulides’ favor. According to assessments by his inner circle, he would prefer—based on poll results—to face Averof Neophytou rather than Anita Dimitriou. This is due to the momentum the DISY President is showing in the polls. It should be noted, however, that Mr. Christodoulides is also making inroads into DISY in his own way, with a share of the vote that is by no means negligible, as recent polls show that nearly one in three SYRIZA supporters would back him in the presidential election.
The Bet on DIKO and Nikolas’s Distancing
Following the parliamentary elections and DISY’s stance, Nikos Christodoulides realized that it was imperative to keep DIKO—in which he is investing—on his side. That is why he responded to Nikola Papadopoulos’s request to strengthen the party’s participation in the government, increasing the number of DIKO ministers—among whom, by no coincidence, are the party’s two vice presidents from previous cabinet reshuffles. From the start of Christodoulides’ administration in 2023, the impression was given that the coalition parties were both in and out, maintaining a lukewarm involvement in shaping the administration’s policies. Moreover, there were numerous complaints to the President from DIKO, EDEK, and DIPA regarding a lack of timely information and their exclusion from key decision-making processes.
Without DIKO’s support, the prospect of Nikos Christodoulides’ reelection is likely to fade. Since the summer, cooperation with DIKO has been strengthened through regular meetings between the party’s secretariat and the President of the Republic. However, the wavering stance of Nikolas Papadopoulos—who is keeping his cards close to his chest and wagging his finger at those who have already announced their support for Christodoulides— has not gone unnoticed at the Hill, however.
CHRISTOS DIKO is in no hurry to make decisions, awaiting the outcome of the tense internal party process, as all scenarios remain open to it. The President’s moves now require delicate handling in relation to DIKO, which has demands and is putting the President’s policies and stance to the test. It is no coincidence that the President of the Republic was also willing—as he conveyed from New York to Nikolas Papadopoulos— to work toward defusing the crisis and toning down the statements made by his minister, Makis Keravnos, against the backdrop of the GSI.
At this juncture, the presidency cannot afford any rift between the government camp and the Democratic Party, as it would be disastrous.
The Costs and Benefits of ELAM’s Support
ELAM’s stance remains a mystery, as does whether Christos Christou will choose, for the first time, not to run independently and instead support Nicos Christodoulides. ELAM is keeping its cards close to its chest, awaiting the November party convention before making its final decisions. Understandably, however—mainly due to the party’s stance on domestic issues—the impression is created that the party is not in the opposition.
The question is how the presidential campaign will handle potential support from ELAM. On the one hand, it needs a party with 10% of the vote on its side; on the other hand, ELAM’s past could deter other potential allies. If they join forces, this move will likely become the focal point of the election campaign for those running against Nicos Christodoulides. Therefore, the presidential office will have to weigh the costs and benefits.
In an election, every vote counts, so the President of the Republic seeks to maintain open lines of communication with extra-parliamentary parties, particularly with DIPA and EDEK. The combined 6.4% share of the vote held by these parties is certainly significant for Nicos Christodoulides.
Regardless of the parties’ decisions, sources close to the President indicate that he continues to invest in civil society, irrespective of party affiliations or other backgrounds. This was a key focus of his 2023 election campaign, despite the fact that the government now consists almost entirely of members with party affiliations.
A “Disguised” Election Campaign
An election campaign for an incumbent president has both its pros and cons. On the one hand, it draws on the power and prestige of the office, highlighting mainly the positives and promising to carry out what he did not have time to implement. On the other hand, he remains vulnerable to criticism for the pledges he failed to fulfill and the mistakes he made, while also having to contend with the wear and tear that comes with power. The task becomes even more difficult for a president like Nikos Christodoulides, who is called upon to “promote” his administration on his own, without the protection of a political party.
Although the President’s actions have long had a strong election-year flavor, he himself will intensify efforts in the coming period to implement the announcements and other measures he has in mind, which he will announce gradually to ensure a steady flow of pre-announced initiatives.
It also appears to be part of the plan to keep the discussion on developments in the Cyprus issue alive, in order to create a sense of momentum that the presidency is fostering through occasional proposals for a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) and other measures, even though the President himself realizes that these cannot easily be put into practice.
The election of the new UN Secretary-General of the UN creates new circumstances in and of itself and may be capitalized on by Nikos Christodoulides in the sense that, in the midst of the election campaign, he can present what he sees as a new dynamic in the Cyprus issue due to the change in the person who will be at the helm of the international organization.
