The inevitable comparisons with 2022 against a backdrop of complete uncertainty, with no clear candidates and no alliances
Fifteen months before the presidential election, the poll conducted on behalf of “Alpha” by Rai Consultants Ltd confirms that the pre-election debate has begun, highlighting certain trends and potential candidates. There are factors to consider regarding the momentum certain figures are gaining, but under no circumstances can definitive conclusions be drawn. Not only because we are still so far from the presidential election, but mainly because nothing has been finalized regarding candidacies and alliances. There are, however, some factors worth taking into account in the current landscape and in light of what has been presented.
Nikos Christodoulides’ Lead
ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΑΡΘΡΑ
The “victory” in antalya and the day after
President of the Republic Nikos Christodoulides appears to have the lead in all possible scenarios. He appears to be securing a spot in the second round while, at the same time, currently leading against whoever his opponent may be. This result certainly cannot be downplayed, especially considering that not only does he have no party backing him, but he is also finishing first even if two of his potential allies decide to run independently: DIKO President Nikolas Papadopoulos and ELAM President Christos Christou. This sends the message that he has managed to build his own core of voters, who may come from nearly all political parties.
There is no clear front-runner
At the same time, however, as the President shows a lead, comparisons with the past are inevitable. Five years ago, Nikos Christodoulides did not merely finish first; he was the favorite from the very first polls. He even led his second- and third-place rivals by double-digit margins. This helped him secure the image of a winner early on and bring the centrist parties—as well as part of DISY—into his camp. Based on current trends, the President is maintaining his momentum, though without a comfortable lead. This could trigger a flight from the existing coalition parties. It should be recalled that during the 2023 election campaign, his momentum declined significantly, his opponents gained strength—partly due to party machinery—resulting in his election, though by a narrower margin than the polls had indicated. Something that should also give his campaign team pause is the fact that he is not facing actual candidates but rather potential figures who may end up opposing him. Mr. Neophytou, for example, has not yet received the party’s endorsement to officially launch a campaign with a confrontational tone, while Andreas Mavroyiannis is no longer so certain whether he will ultimately be AKEL’s chosen candidate. The President, therefore, is the only one considered a sure bet to run for re-election. So if figures who are not yet candidates are currently garnering support levels that were much lower five years ago, how much might the official start of the campaign actually benefit his momentum? Especially considering that, as President, he will come under fire from all his opponents—both for his government’s policies and because they believe they can draw votes away from him.
Averof and the Second Round
Averof Neophytou is currently in the midst of the party’s internal elections, but according to the poll, he is garnering higher support than his rival for the nomination, Giorgos Pamporidis. He is therefore not yet officially the DISY nominee. The question, then, is whether, should he ultimately receive the nomination, a process of further consolidation will begin. In other words, will Giorgos Pamporidis’s supporters back him by boosting his vote share and putting him in a stronger position, or will there be centrifugal tendencies toward Nikos Christosdoulidis. It is worth noting, however, that in the second round, the margin is very narrow, whether Nikos Christodoulidis is his opponent or Andreas Mavrogiannis.
The Mavrogiannis Puzzle
The big question raised by the percentage of the vote that Andreas Mavrogiannis appears to be receiving is whether this support stems from his own personal appeal or whether it primarily represents the choice of the center-left or AKEL-aligned fringein the absence of another candidate from that political spectrum. It is an issue with no clear-cut answer, and AKEL should avoid jumping to absolute conclusions. On the one hand, the left-wing party appears to be seeking a candidate who will help it forge alliances; on the other hand, the passage of time could potentially have a negative effect, considering that Mr. Mavrogiannis’s poll numbers declined from September 2026 through October. And this is due to uncertainty.
Alliances and Potential Kingmakers
Of particular interest are the poll numbers recorded, first and foremost by ALMA President Odysseas Michaelides (9–11%), which are double the percentage recorded by his movement, as well as ELAM President Christos Christou at 6%, a figure lower than that recorded by his party. Both are key players. Whether they run for office themselves, support one of the three frontrunners from the outset—who might provide them with significant backing—or ultimately back someone in the second round. Odysseas Michailidis is discussing the possibility of a center-left candidacy and rules out Andreas Mavrogiannis as a candidate. A joint candidacy, therefore—without in any way being based on the addition of vote shares—will inevitably have a positive effect on the candidate from that political camp. The question, of course, is what ELAM President Christos Christou will ultimately do. The party’s hard-line core is pushing for an independent run, while the Synagermiko-aligned officials (Papacharalambous, Pelekanos, Hamboullas) have favored supporting Nikos Christodoulides from the outset. Such a decision is not easy, neither for ELAM—which until recently presented itself as an anti-establishment party—nor, of course, for Nikos Christodoulides, who fears that such a moveprovide the perfect excuse for other political forces to choose a different candidate. One of the options favored by the President is for ELAM to run independently with a candidate who would not cause significant damage, such as Christos Christou, who garners 6% of the vote and support in the second round. The extent to which ELAM might emerge strengthened from such an agreement is, of course, an open question.
The Current Picture
What is certain, however, is that without alliances being finalized, without official candidacies being announced, and without the start of the campaign, nothing can be considered set in stone or lead to certainties, celebrations, or disappointments. For now, we are recording the snapshot of the moment, which certainly merits interpretation—but also should be understood as just that.
