The race to succeed António Guterres is taking on a clearer front-runner, even though the agreement required to elect the next UN Secretary-General has not yet been secured. Rebecca Greenspan strengthened her lead in the Security Council’s eighth informal vote, on November 5, receiving 12 votes of support and three votes of opposition. This is her strongest showing to date, according to the published results, as the Council does not officially announce the breakdown of votes.
The improvement in the position of the former vice president of Costa Rica, from 11 votes in favor in the previous round to 12, reinforces the impression of growing support for her candidacy. It does not, however, answer the crucial question: whether any of the three “no” votes came from a Permanent Member of the Council. The latest vote did not distinguish between the votes of the five Permanent Members and those of the ten elected members. Consequently, the numerical lead cannot yet be translated into certainty of victory.
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This is the key feature of the process. For the Council’s official recommendation, at least nine affirmative votes are required, and there must be no veto from the United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom. The appointment is then made by the General Assembly, in accordance with Article 97 of the Charter.
With Greenspan out of the running, the latest round of voting reflected stability rather than upheaval. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, received nine votes of support, four of disapproval, and two abstentions. Carolyn Rodrigues Birket, from Guyana, received eight votes in favor, five against, and two abstentions, while Lana Nuseibeh, from the United Arab Emirates, remained at seven votes in favor, six against, and two abstentions. The picture shows that the alternative candidates retain some support, but have not halted the rise of the frontrunner.
The uncertainty surrounding the intentions of the Permanent Members has a specific precedent. In the sixth informal vote, held on October 16 under the Greek presidency, separate ballots were used for the permanent and elected members. Each of the three leading candidates at the time—Greenspan, Grossi, and Rodríguez Birquet—had received two dissenting votes from Permanent Members. Subsequent rounds, with consolidated ballots, do not allow for determining whether these objections have subsided. The negative results of a exploratory vote do not constitute a formal veto, but they do represent a substantial political obstacle.
Meanwhile, the entry of new candidates confirms that the search remains open. Feridun Sinirlioğlu, whom Turkey nominated on November 1, received three votes of encouragement in his first appearance, eight discouraging votes, and four abstentions. This initial performance places him a significant distance behind the frontrunners.
Greenspan’s candidacy is also linked to two broader political aspirations: the election of the first woman to head the Organization and the selection of a candidate from Latin America and the Caribbean. These expectations lend political weight to the race, without superseding the agreement among the major powers. Regional rotation is an informal practice, but not a binding rule.
As Guterres’s term comes to an end in late December, the time available to prepare for his succession is running out. The continued uncertainty places a burden on an organization that is already facing financial pressures and questions about its effectiveness. According to reports, the new informal vote is expected on Thursday, November 19. Until then, the race has a strong favorite, but the necessary compromise among the Permanent Members is still being sought.
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Source: APE-MPE
