Global emissions of greenhouse gases are estimated to decline slightly in 2026, following their historic high in 2025, however, scientists note that this decline—which they attribute primarily to the circumstances surrounding the war against Iran—remains insufficient to meet international climate goals.
Following an average annual increase of 0.9% over the past ten years, emissions from the burning of oil, natural gas, and coal—the primary drivers of climate change—are expected to decline by 0.4% in 2026, according to a study by the Global Carbon Project, a leading authority on the subject, released today on the occasion of COP31 in Antalya, Turkey.
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The decline, attributed mainly to rising oil prices due to the war in the Middle East and the expansion of renewable energy sources, is certainly “encouraging,” but “a reduction that is partly due to geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable solution for the climate,” notes Pierre Friedlingstein, the report’s lead author.
A new increase is expected
This marks the first year-over-year decline in global emissions since 2020, a year in which the COVID-19 pandemic brought the global economy, trade, and transportation to a standstill.
This year, the war in Iran—which broke out with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against the Islamic Republic on February 28— as well as the resulting de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reduced oil consumption, which in turn led to a decline in emissions due to soaring fuel prices.
The expansion of solar panels, wind farms, and electric vehicles accounted for two-thirds of the increase in global energy demand and also contributed to the decline in emissions, according to the study.
However, for Corinne Le Quéré, one of the study’s authors and a professor in the School of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia, this decline can only be temporary.
A rebound in emissions is likely “as soon as the tensions” affecting the price of “black gold” ease, she said during a press conference, noting that this upward trend has also been observed in the past, when economic recovery followed a shock, such as the COVID-19 pandemic or the global financial crisis.
A one-year decline in emissions “means nothing unless it is the result of structural change,” noted Glenn Peters of the Center for International Climate Research (Center for International Climate Research).
In his view, accelerating the adoption of solar and wind energy, batteries, and electric vehicles would make it possible to reduce or slow the rise in emissions in some countries, but these developments “are not yet sufficient.”
“Further acceleration is necessary so that global emissions can peak and then begin a sustained decline,” according to Mr. Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter.
CO2 budget to be exhausted in 4 years
According to the authors of the paper, global emissions from oil were expected to decline by 1.9% in 2026, but this “will likely” be “a short-term reaction to the energy shock caused by the armed conflict in which Iran was involved.”
Emissions attributed to natural gas are expected to decrease by 0.3%, while those from coal combustion are expected to increase by 0.6%.
By country, China—which accounts for 32% of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion—is expected to reduce its emissions by 0.9% this year, the U.S. by 1.3%—mainly due to a reduction in emissions from coal combustion—and the European Union by 1.5%. India’s emissions, on the other hand, are expected to increase by 4.4%.
Globally, CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are expected to reach 38.2 billion metric tons in 2026. When land-use changes—primarily linked to deforestation—are factored in, the total is projected to rise to 43.3 billion metric tons, up from 42.8 billion in 2025.
The text emphasizes that the global “carbon budget” —or, in other words, the amount of CO2 that can be emitted before global warming exceeds the 1.5 ° Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels—amounts to 150 billion metric tons. According to the researchers’ calculations, at the current rate, this limit will be exhausted in less than four years.
The 1.5 °C target, set by the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, was intended to limit the consequences of climate change as much as possible. The UN finally acknowledged in September that exceeding this target is now inevitable, in the absence of sufficient reductions in anthropogenic emissions, calling for temperatures to be brought below that threshold as quickly as possible to prevent the proliferation and intensification of climate disasters.
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Source: APE-MPE
