The need to safeguard the role of the United Nations, at a time when the international organization is facing financial pressures and questions about its effectiveness, was emphasized by the President of the “Politeia” Think Tank, Anna Koukkidou Prokopiou.
Speaking on the Alpha News program, she stressed that the future of the UN is of particular importance, both for the progress of the Cyprus issue and for the future of the peacekeeping force on the island.
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The UN is being weakened, while China is gaining strength
Ms. Prokopiou made special mention of the Trump administration’s treatment of the United Nations, noting that skepticism regarding the Organization’s role and effectiveness has intensified in recent years.
As she noted, the U.S. President has portrayed the United Nations as an ineffective and costly bureaucratic apparatus, questioning the need to fund it. Ms. Koukkidou Prokopiou acknowledged that there may be cases in which his criticism is justified; however, she warned however, that the overall disparagement of the Organization simultaneously implies a undermining of international law, of which the United Nations is the guardian.
He pointed out that the United States has cut at least 40% of its contributions to the UN, with consequences for both the Organization’s operations and humanitarian programs. He cited, by way of example, people who have lost their jobs and health and treatment programs for HIV/AIDS that have been affected.
At the same time, as he noted, China is attempting to fill part of the void by presenting itself as a supporter of an international system based on international law. Through United Nations funding and the provision of humanitarian aid, it is expanding its presence and influence in various countries.
The international relations expert described these developments as a significant realignment of power on the international stage, noting that China currently appears to be the “adult in the room.”
Guterres’ Succession and the Options for Cyprus
Regarding the process of succeeding António Guterres, Ms. Koukkidou Prokopiou noted that the situation remains fluid, with various candidates being put forward by states and regional groups.
She highlighted the candidacy of Rebecca Greenspan, who has significant experience within the United Nations and is close to the outgoing Secretary-General. As she said, if she had the opportunity to choose among the candidates, she would view Ms. Greenspan’s selection as a positive development, as she is familiar with the Cyprus issue and the UN environment.
She also referred to the candidacy being promoted by the United Arab Emirates, noting that, in her assessment, it has not received a particularly positive response in Arab states, as there is a perception that it is also supported by Israel. She also spoke about the bid put forward by Turkey.
Ms. Koukkidou Prokopiou, however, sent a clear message to Nicosia regarding its diplomatic choices: support for a candidate should not be given without taking into account the possibility that the candidate may not ultimately be elected. As he explained, if the Republic of Cyprus strongly backs a candidate and that candidate does not win, there is a risk that a rift may already have formed with the new Secretary-General.
At the same time, he noted that Guterres’s successor will not only have to manage the Cyprus issue but will also face a wide range of crises: wars, humanitarian needs, energy pressures, the possibility of a new pandemic, as well as the Organization’s own serious financial and operational problems.
“UNFICYP is not just a security issue”
He placed particular emphasis on the future of the United Nations peacekeeping force in Cyprus, stressing that its presence should not be viewed exclusively as a security issue.
As he noted, UNFICYP plays an important role in maintaining the buffer zone and preventing incidents; however, its mission has primarily a political dimension. In fact, he cited the Security Council resolution that established the peacekeeping force in Cyprus, noting that it provides for its continued presence until normal order is restored.
“UNFICYP means that the Cyprus issue has not been resolved, that normal order has not been restored,” was the gist of her remarks, warning that a different outcome would not be desirable for the Greek Cypriot side.
Concerns Over Erdogan’s Stance
Commenting on developments following the meeting between the two leaders, the President of “Politeia” noted that, despite the significance of the agreements announced, the broader political picture should not be overlooked.
She expressed concern over the fact that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, at the very moment that the Turkish Cypriot leader, Tufan Erhürman, was meeting with the President of the Republic, reiterated that the only solution is two states and announced new measures for the recognition of the pseudo-state.
Referring, at the same time, to the proposal that Mr. Erhurman described as a “game changer,” she noted that there is insufficient information about its content to assess it with certainty. She cited, however, the briefing provided by the Government Spokesperson, according to which the proposal fell outside the scope of the Security Council resolutions and, therefore, could not be accepted.
She expressed reservations as to whether the Turkish Cypriot leader ultimately has the ability to push through substantive decisions, noting that he does not appear to be the ultimate decision-maker regarding the Turkish side’s options. She also referred to the presence of the Turkish Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, in Cyprus, noting that his visit contributed to new developments regarding issues that might potentially be resolved.
In conclusion, Ms. Koukkidou Prokopiou emphasized that Cyprus must monitor international developments with particular attention, as the future of the United Nations and the stance of the organization’s new leadership will inevitably influence the prospects for the Cyprus issue.
Electoral pressure on Trump and the possibility of escalation with Iran
Referring to the results of the midterm elections in the United States and how they might influence Donald Trump’s decisions, Ms. Koukkidou Prokopiou assessed that the domestic pressure the U.S. President is facing may also influence his actions on the international stage.
As she explained, common sense would dictate greater restraint, especially in light of the election results. However, he did not rule out the possibility that Trump might attempt a diversionary tactic to divert attention from the political pressure he faces at home.
In fact, he cited as an example the possible impeachment of the Secretary of Defense—whom Donald Trump now refers to as the “Secretary of War”— noting that a military crisis could be used as an argument for putting domestic political disputes on hold.
Despite signs of de-escalation, she made it clear that it is difficult to predict the direction the U.S. President will ultimately take. She also recalled that Trump had declared that the war was over, with the Iranian side dismissing the claim as fake news.
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