For the rest of Europe, the crucial question is what impact this pressure will have on Berlin’s policy choices
The regional elections in Germany confirmed that the rise of the far right is now taking on the characteristics of a sustained political shift rather than a temporary protest vote. The far-right AfD party is establishing itself as a dominant political force, causing significant upheaval in the political system. At the same time, however, the result in Berlin also reveals a second trend: a segment of the electorate is seeking a way out to the left, turning away from the traditional parties that have dominated the political scene for decades.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD emerged as the leading party with 38.2%, more than doubling the 16.7% it had received in 2021. The AfD’s success was even greater in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, where it reached 43.8%.
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For Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the message is clear. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the CDU was limited to 4.9%, failing to win a seat in a German state parliament for the first time, while in Berlin it received 18.8%. Merz has been in the chancellery since May 2025, as head of the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition government, having made economic growth, security, and a stricter immigration policy.
Why the AfD Is Gaining Ground
The easy explanation would be to attribute the AfD’s rise exclusively to immigration. The reality, however, appears to be more complex. Post-election surveys by Infratest dimap in Saxony-Anhalt identified social security and the adequacy of the welfare state as the most important factors influencing voting intentions, followed by, among other things, peace in Europe, the economy, and internal security. Immigration ranked lower, at 9%, suggesting that voting behavior in this particular election was shaped by a broader mix of social concerns.
The pressure on Chancellor Merz intensified even further after the election: in a Forsa poll published on September 22, 55% of respondents said that Merz should resign as chancellor, compared to 40% who supported him remaining in office.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD made gains across all age groups as well as among various occupational groups. A key factor was also the party’s ability to attract voters who had abstained in previous elections. Infratest dimap estimates a net gain of approximately 66,000 votes from this group, as well as approximately 48,000 from the SPD and 32,000 from the CDU. At the same time, only 13% of voters in that state considered the CDU to be the party with the best solutions for the economy, a particularly low showing for a party that traditionally emphasizes the triad of Economy-Stability-Reform.
The current picture reflects a mix of economic uncertainty and rising costs of living, concerns about the welfare state and immigration, as well as growing distrust of the political system. In eastern Germany, this is compounded by long-standing regional disparities and the perception among a significant portion of the population that the region continues to be at a disadvantage compared to western GGermany.
The rise of the AfD, however, is no longer limited to the eastern states. In another Infratest dimap poll, published in early September, the AfD recorded 27% in voting intentions for the federal elections, compared to 21% for the CDU/CSU. On the one hand, this is a reflection of current public opinion rather than a prediction of the election outcome; on the other hand, it demonstrates that the pressure on the traditional party system is now taking on a national dimension.
The Different Situation in Berlin
The result in Berlin painted a different picture. Die Linke, led by Elif Eralp, took first place with 25.7%, up from 12.2% in 2023.
The Left’s strong presence in Berlin is not a new phenomenon. The city has a long tradition of strong electoral support for the SPD, the Greens, and Die Linke, with significant fluctuations from one election cycle to the next and marked differences between East and West Berlin. Die Linke’s current rise, however, is remarkable: in three years, it has more than doubled its share of the vote and taken first place.
The result gives Eralp the opportunity to run for mayor and, provided the necessary parliamentary majority is formed, to become the first politician from Die Linke to lead the Berlin government. The central theme of her campaign was housing and high rents, and she also advocated for the socialization of housing owned by large private companies in exchange for compensation.
The case of Berlin shows that discontent does not always translate into votes for the far right. In a different social and demographic context, the shift away from traditional parties moved in the opposite direction and was expressed through votes for the Left.
Why This Concerns All of Europe
The European dimension certainly stems from Germany’s particular weight. The AfD challenges fundamental tenets of current German and European policy: it advocates drastically restricting immigration, opposes continued military aid to Ukraine, and supports closer relations with Russia (reopening the Nord Stream pipeline). Its platform has also called for Germany’s withdrawal from the euro.
To date, the AfD has remained outside of any governing coalitions with the other major parties. Its continued rise in the polls, however, is putting pressure on the German party system and limiting the available options for forming governing majorities.
At the federal level, the very architecture of the German political system also plays a decisive role. The proportional allocation of seats makes it extremely difficult for a single party to secure an outright parliamentary majority, and coalition governments have been the norm for decades. As long as the other major parties continue to exclude the AfD from governing coalitions, its rise in the polls does not automatically translate into participation in the federal government. However, as its parliamentary strength grows, the available combinations for forming a majority among the other parties become increasingly limited.
Developments in Germany take on even greater significance when viewed alongside what is happening in France. The next presidential election will be held in April, and if a second round is necessary, in May.
The Rassemblement National (RN) appears to be significantly expanding its electoral influence. In a major Ipsos BVA poll conducted in early September, Marine Le Pen garnered between 33% and 35% of voting intentions in the first round.
A potential RN victory in the French presidential election, combined with the AfD’s continued rise in Germany, could shift the political balance within the EU and increase pressure on the Eurozone or even lead to changes on issues such as immigration, defense, support for Ukraine, and the division of responsibilities between member states and European institutions. The significance of such a development is enormous, as France and Germany are the EU’s two largest economies and have been at the heart of major European decisions for decades.
For the rest of Europe, the critical question is what impact this pressure will have on Berlin’s policy choices. As long as the cracks in the dominant party system persist, a greater portion of political energy will be absorbed by the governing parties’ efforts to address domestic discontent.
The coming months will provide answers primarily to two questions: whether the Merz government can regain trust, particularly in the areas of the economy and social policy, and whether the rise of the AfD in eastern Germany will translate into a corresponding, sustainable momentum at the national level. The impact of German political developments on the rest of Europe will also depend to a significant extent on the answers to these two questions.
*Director of Communications at GNORA Communications Consultants
