How the diplomat’s name has recently come up in connection with 2028 and the fear of a “Stavros Malas” scenario that could potentially cause him problems

Shortly before the parliamentary elections, and while the race was considered critical, Andreas Mavroyiannis publicly declared his support for AKEL, making it clear that he stood with the party in this battle. This move was undoubtedly a pleasant surprise and an unexpected gift for Ezekia Papaioannou, who was seeking allies from the broader progressive camp. She then strongly endorsed the AKEL candidate and now deputy mayor of Aglantzia, Andri Hatzandreou, who worked on his campaign staff during the 2023 presidential election campaign. And in the midst of all this,  when the report on the “Mafia State” was released, he tactfully pointed out that the investigation by the Anti-Corruption Authority was the result of his own initiative, while also calling for avoid extreme characterizations. All of this brought Andreas Mavroyiannis into the spotlight, sparking a debate over whether he might ultimately be AKEL’s candidate in the upcoming presidential election. Above all, it raised the question of whether such a choice could lead to a second victory for the left-wing party.

The Profile

AKEL is watching with interest how the pre-election landscape is taking shape, who is interested in the race on the 28th on the Right, and who might be potential allies. With this in mind, they are determined to begin the process of selecting a candidate for the presidential election this fall, as party officials acknowledge that the fact that they waited until the last minute in three consecutive election campaigns took a toll on the party and certainly on the candidate’s momentum. Although AKEL Secretary-General Stefanos Stefanou did not recently rule out the possibility of running himself—either for tactical reasons or to avoid being boxed into a corner— it is believed that the main goal, as in the past, will be to field a candidate who can attract votes not only from the broader progressive spectrum but also from the center-right. And for AKEL to not only advance to the second round but also to win, it will have to split the large right-wing bloc, where there are many candidates and in the second round they rally around a single candidate.

Certainly in the running

Given that Andreas Mavroyiannis has expressed his interest, and given that he has maintained very good relations with AKEL officials and part of its base, it is largely certain that his name will be on the table for discussion. AKEL has appreciated the way he has conducted himself within the party, both before and after the election. In contrast, as they say, to other candidates who either kept their distance from the party by emphasizing the independent nature of their candidacy or who publicly criticized AKEL. For AKEL, he embodies key qualities that allow him to appeal to a broader audience beyond AKEL’s hard-core base

• He does not engage in toxic or extreme rhetoric. This was evident in the case of the report’s findings, when he called for extremism not to prevail
• He has not been jaded by the day-to-day grind, given that he is based abroad and makes very selective public statements
• His experience with the Cyprus issue, as well as his positions that differ from those of AKEL, can help attract a more centrist audience
• He has ties to leaders from other political camps. Prominent members of Volt played an active role on his campaign staff- He maintains very good relations with Marios Karoyian, who may be an option for the DIPA if Christodoulides closes the door on them

However, there are also a number of difficult issues surrounding his candidacy that he may have to face.

A Repeat of Stavros Malas

The first issue he will have to face is the inevitable comparison with Stavros Malas’s candidacy. Mr. Malas’s candidacy in 2018 came about when AKEL was left without a candidate after Mike Spanos appeared on SIGMA, and the impression took hold that it was a stopgap solution. In the case of Andreas Mavroyiannis, this “Mala-style” discussion had tentatively begun, when, despite his defeat and his statement that he was retiring from active politics, he indicated that he was interested in the 2028 presidential election. He will have to prove that he is not just a repeat of Malas and will have to explain what has changed this time around since 2023 so that his candidacy can be successful.

The facts at that time

However, AKEL will also have to respond to the criticisms that will arise regarding a “stopgap solution.” And especially to the accusations that its goal is not to win the election but to advance to the second round by fielding a candidate who has already lost. The main response given, of course, is that Andreas Mavroyiannis came very close to finishing first, unlike Stavros Malas. The counterargument is that AKEL had all the circumstances in its favor to win. A divided Synergatiko party with essentially two candidates, and half of DISY effectively working to secure his election in the second round. Today, things won’t be so easy. Nikos Christodoulides is no longer considered a “Synergatiki” candidate; the party is not at risk of a split, and it is not considered a foregone conclusion that, should DISY fail to advance to the second round, he would support Andreas Mavroyiannis’s candidacy. Nor, of course, is it considered a likely scenario that he would be supported by Christodoulides’ inner circle if the president fails to advance to the second round.

The Cyprus issue: an asset or a liability?

There are quite a few AKEL officials who believe that Andreas Mavroyiannis’s expertise, stemming from his involvement in the Cyprus issue as a negotiator, will strengthen his candidacy. Especially during a period of significant mobilization around the Cyprus issue.

However, all of this could at the same time provoke serious backlash, just as there was when some supported Achilleas Dimitriadis instead of Mr. Mavroyiannis. These reactions were evident recently as well, when Andreas Mavrogiannis confirmed Anastasiades’ statements about what happened at Crans-Montana and, in effect, left former Commissioner Christos Stylianides exposed. For some, all of this also amounted to an attempt to discredit Christos Stylianides, whose name is periodically mentioned as a presidential candidate who could be supported both by liberal Synergatiki members and by a progressive audience that prioritizes a solution. However, those who know Andreas Mavroyiannis believe that his assessment of what happened at Crans-Montana does indeed align with that of Nicos Anastasiades. And this could either put AKEL—which maintains a different narrative—in a difficult position or help it reach out to an audience that does not accept AKEL’s narrative regarding the reasons for the collapse of thetalks at Crans-Montana.