Guterres’s Directives, McGarry’s Role, and the Convergences
The parties involved in the Cyprus issue are racing against time to ensure they don’t miss the window of opportunity for potential developments. Anxiety is mounting following António Guterres’s visit to Cyprus, which failed to produce a breakthrough regarding the five-party convergence talks. This means that everything is being delayed. The hourglass is running out, as in less than five months he will hand over the reins to his successor, who remains unknown at this time. The Secretary-General, however, is willing to address the Cyprus issue right up until his last day in office as head of the international organization. Despite the lukewarm statements from Nicosia, the game is not over for him yet.
Guterres’s Instructions for the Next Steps
ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΑΡΘΡΑ
António Guterres has delegated his responsibilities to close associates and technocrats whom he considers capable of taking the process one step further and pushing it forward at a rapid pace. Coordination between the two sides in Cyprus, as well as of the upcoming meetings, has been taken over by an aide to Special Envoy Maria Olgin—Patti Londono—who is in Nicosia and in constant communication with the two negotiators, helping to shape the agenda for the meeting between Nikos Christodoulides and Tufan Erhurman on August 26. According to reports, Londono will take a few days’ vacation, with her activities peaking the week after August 15. A new drop in Olgin’s price is not currently expected.
Recording of meetings from Canada
The most significant work on the Cyprus issue at this time will be carried out by the academic appointed by the United Nations to document the points of convergence on the Cyprus issue leading up to the Crans-Montana talks. John McGarry is an experienced technocrat from Canada with a proven track record at the international organization. He has served in an advisory capacity to help defuse international crises, including those in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iraq, Kosovo, and Ukraine. The Cyprus issue is not an unfamiliar problem to him. He was part of the team of experts in Crans-Montana and one of António Guterres’s closest advisors during the negotiations.
He will be solely responsible for documenting the points of convergence, and if assistance is needed, he will consult with both sides. So far, however, no such assistance has been requested, as McGarry relies heavily on the United Nations minutes of the meetings.
However, since nothing is considered agreed upon until hands are shaken and signatures are affixed, John McGarry is seen as having taken on a very difficult role, since no one can guarantee that what he records will not cast doubt on what appeared to have been finalized regarding the key aspects of the Cyprus issue during the last round of negotiations in 2017.
The clarification process is expected to last about three weeks and has already begun. “Alpha on Sunday” contacted the academic, who, however, currently deemed it prudent not to make any public statements. He did, however, state that he is working to deliver the results of his research to the United Nations as soon as possible.
These meetings will reveal not only the common ground reached in the talks but also the thorny differences that remain visible in nearly all aspects of the national issue. The most significant ones concern security, guarantees, and troops, while differences also exist regarding the maps for territorial issues, property, and the rotating presidency. These are just a few of the contentious issues. The Greek Cypriot side considers the six points of the Guterres framework to be part of the acquis of the talks and hopes that the Turkish Cypriot side—which has agreed neitheror otherwise to the recording of points of convergence.
The United Nations’ interpretation of the text and its proper contextualization based on the Secretary-General’s actual and original intent are of great importance, since any discussions will be based on this.
Based on these points of convergence, António Guterres will make a renewed effort to convene a new five-party meeting. This is not a promise; however, diplomatic sources on the Greek Cypriot side express optimism regarding the scheduling of the expanded meeting.
The August 26 meeting and the… weekly meetings
Both communities view the leaders’ meeting on August 26 as critical. This one-on-one meeting was requested by the President of the Republic and finalized after various dates within the current month were discussed and it was determined that it could not be scheduled earlierdue to the summer vacation lull.
Tufan Erhurman claims, however, that in the presence of the Secretary-General, he and Nicos Christodoulides agreed to meet once a week. An agreement which, according to sources close to the President, was never formalized as a commitment between the two leaders. What they do admit is that the Turkish Cypriot leader made a passing reference to weekly meetings, with the President of the Republic noting that he agrees to regular meetings, but he is not committing to weekly ones. According to the same sources, Nikos Christodoulides seems to have pointedly stated before the Secretary-General that it is not a matter of competition —that is, who will propose the most one-on-one meetings—but that what matters is securing meetings, as many times as necessary, to discuss substantive issues.
A new meeting between the negotiators is expected the week after the Feast of the Assumption. According to reports, the Greek Cypriot side is not currently preparing a new proposal for the 26th of the month, seeking instead to discuss the substantive aspects of the Cyprus issue rather than focusing on the Terms of Reference. The Turkish Cypriots appear to view the MOEs as a prerequisite for the five-party talks, seeking to buy more time before—and if—they finally delve into the substance of the negotiations. After all, Tufan Erhurman still needs more time before he can publicly use the phrase “Bi-zonal, Bi-communal Federation.”
The MOEs will, in any case, be part of the agenda on August 26, with discussions focusing on the opening of the Athienou-Pyroi crossing, based on António Guterres’s proposal for the route, as well as on that of Mia Milia. However, during his meeting with the Secretary-General on July 28, the Turkish Cypriot leader appears to have requested additional concessions regarding Louroujina and Lybia. However, when Nikos Christodoulides once again put the opening of Kokkina on the table, Tufan Erhurman refused. This is what well-informed sources are reporting.
Fito’s Diplomatic Tour
Diplomatic fever is also running high in the EU. with the new envoy, Raffaele Fito, preparing a round of meetings with the guarantor powers to restate the incentives for Turkey should it return back at the negotiating table. The EU’s efforts will intensify even further by the end of the month and will focus on the issue of the customs union. Mr. Fito’s influence is expected to be more significant than that of his predecessor, Johannes Hahn, in the process, due to his position as the current Vice President of the European Commission. This allows for more direct and institutional communication with Ankara, despite the fact that his appointment does not satisfy Turkey at all.
The Turkish Cypriot leader also continues to express reservations about the envoy’s role, as he stated in an interview last week that he has unresolved issues with the E.EU
