What conditions did the DIKO President set for Nikos Christodoulides, what role will the polls play, and what about the relationship with DISY?

Shortly after the parliamentary elections, DIKO President Nikolas Papadopoulos had made his way to the Presidential Palace. The goal was to discuss with President Christodoulides the election results as well as the future of their cooperation. And although the discussion was reported to have taken place in a particularly warm and friendly atmosphere, the truth is a bit more complex. It was an opportunity for Nikolas Papadopoulos to vent the pent-up grievances that had created an atmosphere of passive aggression in their relationship, to speak openly with Nikos Christodoulides about the future of their collaboration and, above all, what had been bothering him up to this point. After all, the outcome of the parliamentary elections—with DIKO maintaining its share of the vote and the exclusion of the other two coalition parties, EDEKand DIPA—from Parliament, gave the DIKO President the advantage of setting his own terms from a position of greater strength. These terms were certainly not unreasonable, as he made clear first and foremost the need for better coordination. It is well known, after all, that for some time the President had been making decisions and then informing his coalition partners. However, he also called for a stronger presence in parastatal and ministerial bodies, given the upcoming cabinet reshuffle. At the same time, he asked the President to clarify exactly how and with whom he intends to proceed toward his reelection in 2028. He made it clear, in fact, that DIKO’s support should not be taken for granted. He also urged the President to realize that if DIKO does not support Nicos Christodoulides, his chances of making it to the second round are negligible.

DISY and the Cold Shower

But what other options does DIKO have beyond this forced alliance with Nicos Christodoulides?  If anything was confirmed by the behind-the-scenes developments surrounding the Speaker of the House, it is that the potential DISY-DIKO alliance is not all that solid. There was inevitably a rift within DIKO due to Annita Dimitriou’s insistence on running for the position herself, as well as the manner in which she finalized the agreement with Phidias Panagiotou. And no matter how much the DISY President made it clear to certain circles after her election that as soon as she received the nomination for the presidency, she would hand over the Speakership of the House to Nikolas Papadopoulos, suspicion regarding her intentions has grown. It is telling that Christiana Erotokritou —who is considered Nikola Papadopoulos’s main rival within the party—and Zacharias Koulias were in favor of abstaining rather than supporting Annita Dimitriou. It is worth noting that Christiana Erotokritou also disagreed with the party’s decision to support the DISY candidate for deputy mayor of Aglantzia instead of the AKEL candidate. However, even among those who view the alliance with DISY positively, it is clear that there is currently no momentum for such an alliance.

Within DIKO, there is currently a widespread feeling that the DISY leadership lacks seriousness in its dealings with President Christodoulides. Apart from the cold shower caused by the process of electing the Speaker of the House, the current situation—with the announcement of the report on the “Mafia State”—is not helping matters either. It is not just the crisis that DISY has gone through, nor the rash statements, but also the fresh memories of the “most corrupt government.” And while DIKO may not have adopted that rhetoric and may be much more cautious in its criticism, the fact that Chrysis Pantelidis—who is considered one of the alliance’s staunchest supporters— has persistently expressed the view that the Attorney General and Deputy Attorney General must resign does not go unnoticed. This is a position that DISY views as a challenge to the institutions. Of course, when this position is expressed by other parties rather than by Mr. Pantelidis.

There are certainly many who believe that, in the same difficult situation as DISY, President Christodoulides finds himself—or should find himself—following the announcement, due to their close relationship as well as Nikos Anastasiades’s public post-election statement, which was interpreted as clear support for 2028. The truth is, however, that DISY’s move to immediately go on the offensive against everyone suited the President’s desire to stay out of the spotlight. In fact, he seized the opportunity while DISY is struggling to reach out to DIKO officials. His ministers are working to strengthen ties and improve coordination, which demonstrates either that the President of the Republic is attempting to honor what Nikolas Papadopoulos has asked of him or that he aims to solidify a trend within DIKO centered on 2028. 

The Divide-and-Conquer Strategy

It is well known, after all, that the President follows a “divide and conquer” policy, attempting to drive a wedge first into DISY and then into DIKO. It is by no means a coincidence that he chose to appoint two DIKO vice presidents as ministers, neither of whom has expressed any intention of stepping down from the party leadership due to their ministerial posts. There are strong rumors that the two have been asked to remain in the government in the event that DIKO withdraws, and this is something that limits Nikolas Papadopoulos’s options. It is in this context that the President of the Republic has moved to secure Christos Senekis as a minister in the upcoming cabinet reshuffle. A move that annoyed the DIKO President. Not because he opposes the appointment of the former Famagusta MP, but because the President did not consult with him so that he, too, could have a say in who would be appointed from his party. Nikos Christodoulides’ move was by no means accidental, however, especially considering that Mr. Senekis was one of the strongest supporters of his work. And by remaining at the forefront of politics, he evidently believes this will help him when the party is called upon to make a decision.

Polls Determine Alliances

DIKO will obviously not leave the government, but the coming months will be decisive in determining its course of action. For the leadership, it is essential to clarify, through the cabinet reshuffle, what the balance of power will be. For example, will the DIPA maintain its strong presence? For the Presidency, this ties the 3% the party received in the parliamentary elections to it, and that is by no means negligible. For DIKO, however, this slows down their integration into the party.

 There are quite a few within the centrist camp who believe that when the first polls come out in the fall, that’s when the alliances will be decided. If, for example, Nikos Christodoulides is the frontrunner, then the next steps are a foregone conclusion. If, however, Annita Dimitriou gains momentum, then it cannot be ruled out—as is being said—that the DIKO party might switch sides. This could even come from current supporters of Nikos Christodoulides who want to continue playing a role and having a say within the government—even if the President is someone else. What might be the appropriate pretext for leaving the government is another matter.

The pretext  

Beyond the polls, however, the question of who Nikos Christodoulides’ allies will be in his re-election campaign is also expected to play a significant role. Although there was an intention to cooperate with ELAM to support Nikolas Papadopoulos for Speaker of the House, a scenario in which Nikos Christodoulides is backed by DIKO and ELAM appears to be a red line.  It is precisely in this context that DIKO is asking the President to clarify soon with whom he will cooperate and what exactly his plan is for 2028—if, of course, he wants DIKO on his side.