They played a decisive role in the parties’ choices in 2023, but today things seem to be different from back then
One day after António Guterres’s visit to Cyprus, the leak of a Democratic Alarm poll sent two messages. First, that Pindarou had thrown herself so wholeheartedly into the pre-election frenzy that she paid no heed to the symbolism of the timing of the poll, nor to the implications of the leak. Second, what remained was that, on the very day of Guterres’s departure, the executive committee was preoccupied with who the party’s potential candidate might be rather than with the Cyprus issue. Most importantly, however, this confirmed that the issue of opinion polls is once again set to play a decisive role in determining who the candidates will be, in potential alliances, and in who will ultimately claim victory.
After all, if anything defined the 2023 election campaign, it wasn’t just the exclusion of DISY from the second round. It was the influence of the polls that contributed to the final outcome. There are quite a few experts on opinion polls who believe that the outcome— and perhaps even the candidates in the second round, would have been different had there not been a barrage of opinion polls. It is telling that Nikos Christodoulides started out as the undisputed favorite, yet his poll numbers dropped dramatically by the end of the campaign. Meanwhile, the support for Averof Neophytou and the—relatively unknown—Andreas Mavrogiannis had increased over time.
ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΑΡΘΡΑ
As a scientific tool or a means of manipulation?
Opinion polls, particularly in presidential elections, can shape developments and lead to the “bandwagon effect.” Of course, polls are the only tool that can be used to gauge public opinion, and therefore they should not be targeted when the results are unfavorable. However, at the same time, precisely to prevent them from being either discredited or turned into a tool for manipulating public opinion, it is important to distinguish between what constitutes a proper presentation of a poll and what constitutes misrepresentation. Without the poll’s identification details, poll findings should neither be published in the media nor taken into account by the public. The disclosure should identify the company conducting the poll and, of course, clearly state on whose behalf the survey is being conducted. Important details that must be recorded include the methodology used, the response rate, the number of participants—which is highly revealing—and the date on which the poll was conducted. The presentation of general percentages from “a certain poll” in the media should, in and of itself, be grounds for intervention by the Ethics Committee. At the same time, there should be transparency regarding the companies that conduct these polls. In other words, if a company that presents polls in a media outlet is simultaneously commissioned by presidential candidates and political parties, this should be disclosed for the sake of transparency.
How Christodoulides Secured His Victory
It is clear that, just as in 2023, so too in 2028, polls will play a pivotal role in determining who the candidates will be and in shaping their momentum. This is because they inevitably shape the political climate. During the 2023 election campaign, they demonstrated from the outset the momentum that Nikos Christodoulides was building. This was something he made sure to take full advantage of. Initially, in an effort to prevent Averof Neophytou from running and to become the DISY candidate himself. And when that didn’t happen, the poll results played a decisive role in forming alliances. He managed, through the significant gap in the numbers—at one point reaching double digits— that he had over his opponents to project an image of victory and was subsequently supported for precisely that reason by the centrist parties, DIKO, DIPA, and EDEK. Partly because of this perception of victory, he managed to secure the support of a significant portion of SYNAGERMOS voters as well as business circles that traditionally backed DISY. In contrast to Mr. Christodoulides’s case, the release of the polls from the outset had a very negative impact on Averof Neophytou, who was polling in the single digits. Pressure had also been exerted by Synagermika officials, who advised him that if the numbers did not improve by September 2022, then he would have to consider an alternative candidacy. His discussion with Mario Karoyan followed the same line of thought; Karoyan had proposed former Labor Minister Zeta Emilianidou as an alternative candidate.
Playing the numbers game
Today, Anita Dimitriou appears to be aiming to leverage the poll numbers and the popularity she enjoys to establish herself as DISY’s candidate. Ms. Dimitriou, after all, first needs to navigate the party primaries, in which Averof Neophytou is also vying for the nomination, as is Giorgos Pamboridis, subject to certain conditions. The publication of polls on who has the lead within DISY may also be an indirect tactic to encourage her rivals to step aside and prevent internal party elections. One concern is the possibility of an internal party defeat and the implications of her leadership being called into question. At the same time, the goal is not only to avoid internal strife just before the election, but also to prevent any delays. It also serves as a strong bargaining chip vis-à-vis Synergia members regarding who—based on the poll—can stand up to Nicos Christodoulides. At the same time, however, the publication of polls showing Anita Dimitriou with high approval ratings is also aimed at potential alliances. After all, DIKO had made it clear—when the two sides were discussing the Speaker of the House—that they certainly cannot leave the government now, but the possibility of Ms. Dimitriou performing well in the first polls could serve as an argument against those DIKO members who view Nicos Christodoulides as the preferred choice.
Nicholas, the ELAM factor, and the fragmented DISY
The truth, of course, is that for both Nikos Christodoulides and Annita Dimitriou, things are very different from the 2023 pre-election period. The President of the Republic was seen as the undisputed frontrunner back then, but not today. In 2023, opinion polls largely determined the parties’ choices. Today, after five years of coalition government and discontent among some of them, support is no longer taken for granted. Nicholas Papadopoulos is deeply annoyed by the President’s interference within the party, and the President is well aware of this. In fact, during a recent meeting between the two, the President of the Republic attempted to defuse the tension by asking him to consider how they might work together moving forward. The DIKO President, however, wants to keep all his options open and is making sure to convey this. The mention of an independent run is by no means coincidental, and this would certainly be a nightmare scenario for the President. A scenario in which either Nikolas Papadopoulos or Christiana Erotokritou would leave no further room for the ministers-vice presidents—as well as other officials sympathetic to Christodoulides—to follow the party line. This would effectively force them to negotiate in the second round. However, it remains to be seen how likely it is that the DIKO President will ultimately take such a step.
Ms. Dimitriou leads in popularity within DISY; however, none of the potential contenders stands out significantly from the others to claim victory from the outset. Among the issues that will play a decisive role is the fragmentation within DISY. In 2023, there was talk of two Synagermikos candidates: Averof Neophytou and Nicos Christodoulides. Today, no one is ruling out the possibility of Averof Neophytou running as an independent. If the rumors of an independent candidacy are not confirmed, it cannot be ruled out that the internal party process will leave scars and create a new political landscape. And certainly, a fragmented DISY—or the perception of it as being split into three factions— greatly benefits the candidacy of Nikos Christodoulides, who is vying for a share of the support base of all parties, and especially DISY’s.
How Mavrogiannis Regained Momentum
Against this backdrop of a crowded field of “Synergatiki” candidates, AKEL is keeping its distance and closely monitoring the process. Neither the party nor the potential candidates, of course, dismiss the polls. Quite the opposite. In fact, if anything has encouraged Andreas Mavroyiannis to consider the possibility of running again, it is precisely the recent polls showing him gaining momentum. He himself has stated that he intends to make a decision and announce it before the procedures within AKEL are completed. A move that demonstrates he wants to distance himself from being an AKEL candidate and also wants to make up ground. Ground that he was scrambling to cover on the 23rd and that negatively affected him in the polls as well as his momentum. The question, of course, is whether this move also makes it easier for AKEL to make its own decisions, or whether it is seen as trapping him in a specific candidacy.
