The background leading up to the visit, the Olgin factor, and the communication strategy

Last Monday, July 13, at 11:40 a.m. in New York, Antonio Guterres welcomed his Special Representative on Cyprus, Kassim Dian, who had just arrived to brief the Security Council on the current situation on the island.

Antonio Guterres asked him directly what he thought about the possibility of Guterres himself visiting Cyprus, specifically within the next two weeks. Dian appeared taken aback, but fully realizing that at this moment, the Portuguese official is fighting to save his reputation, he replied that it was an excellent idea.

It is telling that today, the UN Secretary-General is in Shanghai, invited to the World Summit on Artificial Intelligence. On Monday, July 20, he will return to New York and immediately begin packing for a tour of the Middle East, which was his original plan. Details have not yet been announced, but it is certain that at least two of his destinations will be Jordan and Syria.

Olgin’s Reversal

 Sources at the United Nations told “Alpha on Sunday” that Ms. Olgin was the person who suggested to the UN Secretary-General that he visit Cyprus.

Specifically, she told him that since he would be touring the region anyway, such a visit would give a huge boost to the United Nations’ efforts. She emphasized that his presence would certainly overcome the obstacles she herself had encountered in her efforts to “finalize” the informal five-party conference.

In fact, because of these obstacles, the Colombian official was forced to reschedule her visit—for the second time—to the European Union headquarters in Brussels.

The first time, it had been decided at the end of June that Olguín would yield the floor to Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa to play a role at the NATO summit. At the crucial dinner on July 8 with Erdogan, she put forward a proposal for concessions on the Cyprus issue in exchange for Euro-Turkish concessions.

Olgin, of course, had a series of phone conversations with European officials, particularly European Council President António Costa, who, according to reports, informed her that the dinner went well, but that they saw no progress on Ankara’s part. Hence the hesitation regarding the announcement of dates for the five-party talks.

Diplomatic sources told “Alpha on Sunday” that throughout this period, the Special Envoy had been in Europe conducting meetings. The same sources reported that the UN official, following the new momentum in the process provided by Guterres’s announcement, will be at the European Union headquarters in Brussels next week.

On Sunday evening, she will travel to Cyprus to await the Secretary-General, who is expected to arrive on the evening of Monday, July 27.

Questions Surrounding the Visit

 Quite a few party officials have wondered what Guterres is planning with his visit.  This question highlights the long-standing aversion to serious developments related to the Cyprus issue on the part of various political parties, as well as a large segment of the population.

Exactly the same situation, of course, is unfolding in the Occupied Territories. Tufan Erhurman viewed the significant news and the Secretary-General’s first visit to Cyprus in 16 years in a positive light. However, beyond that, the usual circles in Ankara are in control; they are waiting for Guterres to make it clear to him that there is no solution other than the two-state solution, and that he is essentially wasting whatever time he has left.

So what is Guterres coming here to do? Government sources told “Alpha on Sunday” that it is clear the five-party talks did not go as planned. At least as far as the timeline that had initially been set is concerned.

With the two leaders by his side, Guterres wants, first and foremost, to send a message to Tayyip Erdoğan that the time has come to actually implement what he committed to last March. To support his initiative.

Late August–Late September

According to information from “Alpha on Sunday,” Guterres’s main goal is to announce the holding of a five-party meeting at the end of August. The Portuguese official expects that this will be feasible during his visit to Cyprus, following communication between Tufan Erhurman and Erdogan himself.

If this does not proceed, the plan will be moved to September, around the time of the UN General Assembly.

In fact, to achieve the best possible outcome, Guterres is putting nearly all of his diplomatic cards on the table.

Accompanying him to Cyprus will be literally the entire Cyprus team, starting with Maria Olgin. 

Also joining him will be UN Deputy Secretary-General for Political Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo and the Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix(all of whom have visited the island on numerous occasions).

According to reports, he is bringing along 10 other UN officials. The highlight of the visit will be a dinner hosted by the Secretary-General for all attendees at the home of Kassim Dian, at the old Nicosia Airport, on Tuesday evening. This will follow separate meetings in the morning with the two leaders, members of the Bi-communal Committees, and representatives of civil society.

On Wednesday, the crucial trilateral meeting will take place, and the Secretary-General may hold a press conference.

The Erdogan Factor

In Turkey, there has been radio silence surrounding the visit. The latest reports indicate that Erdogan will not, after all, be coming to the Occupied Territories for the July 20 celebrations. According to reports from Sunday’s edition of Alpha, the United Nations pressured him right up until the last minute not to come, in order to avoid provoking tension. This pressure proved effective. However, it remains to be seen what rhetoric will be adopted by Cevdet Yılmaz’s replacement.