The race against time just before he hangs up his diplomatic “boots” 

António Guterres is preparing to write the epilogue to his era at the UN, having served two terms at the helm. Recent developments on the international political scene indicate that his tenure is not ending the way the Portuguese diplomat would have liked. Although he proved to be a capable technocrat who made sincere efforts to implement and uphold international law, it appears that, in the end, the law of the “strong” was not on his side. The fact that diplomacy once again took a back seat to the great powers, with their efforts to impose a new international “law,” certainly detracted from the prestige of the UN, which is the guardian of peace, security, and stability on the planet.

On the one hand, Trump, and on the other, Putin—as well as, of course, other voices on the world stage, all guided by a desire to demonstrate their power— have largely succeeded in sidelining António Guterres as head of the organization, leaving him largely exposed. Of course, there is also the perception that the UN has failed to rise to the occasion, assuming a role that is far more humanitarian and observational rather than playing a leading role in resolving the world’s major crises.  

The Last Chance

Amid this shift in the global balance of power, some believe that there may also be opportunities. In this context, it is not out of the question that all of this could have a positive impact on the Cyprus issue and potential developments. This is because the Cyprus issue may be António Guterres’s last chance to prove that the United Nations has a role and a voice. That it can create momentum and bring the key players as close together as possible, despite the gap in their positions and statements.

The dynamic start to 2017 and the Guterres framework

António Guterres assumed his duties as Secretary-General on January 1, 2017. Six months later, with the Cyprus issue at a critical juncture, he was called upon—as were his five predecessors—to work toward a resolution based on Security Council resolutions. Guterres showed interest in continuing the talks in Crans-Montana despite the obstacles that ultimately led to the breakdown on July 7.  

His statement at 3:30 a.m., when it became clear that the two sides were unable to reach an agreement on security and guarantees, went down in history:

“The Conference ended without a result, but that does not mean that other initiatives cannot be taken to resolve the problem.”

The more skeptical observers argue that there was still room for discussion, but Guterres was in a hurry to leave Switzerland to attend the G20 Summit in Germany.  

Just as every secretary-general takes care to leave his mark on the Cyprus issue, so too is the current one bequeathing the Guterres framework, the proposal for which had preceded the breakdown of talks at Crans-Montana.

Its goal was a final agreement on a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation in which the Greek Cypriots would gain an advantage in terms of territory and guarantees, and the Turkish CypriotsTurkish Cypriots in terms of political equality in all bodies of the federal state. This framework continues to “shape” the public discourse to this day, since, apart from the fact that the intentions of each side are not entirely clear, there is also a gap in how it is perceived and interpreted.

Despite Guterres’ efforts, particularly since 2020, every initiative has run up against a wall of intransigence from both Turkey and the Tatar leadership in the pseudo-state.

Erhurman’s election in October was accompanied by a new dynamic, which was confirmed by the fact that on December 11, 2025, the two leaders agreed on political equality, which was reflected in a joint communiqué for the first time in years. After the initial cautious enthusiasm, the months that followed were not marked by any substantial developments, with Christodoulides and Erhurman holding meetings of a largely social nature, with little to no progress on confidence-building measures.  

Despite the frosty atmosphere, the UN Secretary-General—particularly over the last 2.5 years—has devoted even greater attention to the Cyprus issue. Even during Tatar’s tenure, he convened two five-party meetings with the guarantor powers, one in New York and one in Geneva. He attended these meetings in person, fully aware that his task would be particularly difficult, given that Turkey and the pseudo-state would not budge an inch from the two-state solution. Nevertheless, with a wooden Tatar, an agreement was reached on the MoU, although not everything has yet been set on a path toward implementation.

He himself invested in the role of special envoy for the Cyprus issue by appointing Ms. Olgin, despite the fact that her actions had been viewed with some suspicion by the Greek Cypriot side until very recently.   

The Final Move

Antonio Guterres is preparing to play his last card as he works on a new plan, as the government itself has admitted. A plan which, according to diplomatic sources, stems from the new world order, international developments, Euro-Turkish relations, the points raised by Erhurman, Nicosia’s commitment to the basis for a solution, and the government’s diplomatic efforts at the UN and the EU to resolve the issue.

The direction is toward a decentralized federation with greater autonomy for the two constituent states. This headline, however, requires interpretation and extensive discussion. Security and guarantees will once again be a sticking point.     

However, António Guterres is not presenting this plan merely by reading the signs of the times. He is doing so because he personally wishes to retire from his diplomatic career in this highest office with his head held high and with at least one significant success to his credit. For him, the Cyprus issue is also a personal gamble to salvage his legacy. It is doubtful whether he will manage to resolve it within the few months he has left, but at the very least, he aims to leave a legacy of advanced talks that will, even in the final stretch, shine a spotlight on his handling of the situation.

The UN is fostering an atmosphere suggesting that it intends to move full steam ahead until December. Of course, one might reasonably wonder why he waited until the end of his term to present a new plan or bring a breath of fresh air. On the one hand, the sense that the end is approaching, and on the other, circumstances that are more favorable than in the past for restarting a new dialogue, are creating a dynamic.  

However, since there is no room for enthusiasm and theory is far removed from practice, the wisest course is to wait and see whether the Secretary-General will ultimately act decisively to break the deadlock or whether the talk of a solution plan is merely a publicity stunt. In any case, if the stage is indeed set for a five-party discussion based on a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation, that in itself will be a victory in terms of reaffirming the commitment of both sides.  

The Successor

As early as October, the process to succeed António Guterres and elect the next UN Secretary-General will begin.  The clock is ticking, and if there isn’t at least one positive development, then this means it may take another year for his successor’s intentions to become clear—at a time when our country will be on the verge of presidential elections.

The actions of the two communities—and especially Turkey—will be of paramount importance.   

In any case, no one can guarantee that the attention of the international community and the Secretary-General of the time will always be focused on the Cyprus issue. After all, it is not known who will succeed António Guterres or whether that person will be willing to engage personally and substantively. Greater concern will prevail if António Guterres’s successor does not inherit fertile ground for negotiations, as he or she will then have to devote even more time to the issue.  

The UN faces the challenge of restoring its prestige regarding its ability to defuse armed conflicts. Whoever ends up in the UN’s hot seat will be called upon to salvage the organization’s prestige and, above all, to navigate new and established norms in international law—ones that differ from what we have become accustomed to over the past 80 or so years. In this climate, no one knows how high on the agenda the Cyprus issue will be.