The results of the U.S. midterm elections signal a shift in the political balance of power in Washington, with the Democrats securing, according to estimates by U.S. television networks, control of both chambers of Congress.
Their electoral successes, even in traditional Republican strongholds, deal a serious blow to Donald Trump, while initial post-election analyses show significant losses within the broader coalition of voters that enabled him to return to the White House in 2024.
ABC News estimates that the Democrats will win at least 51 seats in the Senate, overturning the Republican majority, which began the election with 53 seats. Meanwhile, major U.S. media outlets estimate that the Democrats are also winning a majority in the House of Representatives, where they needed a net gain of just three seats.
The scale of the upsets in the Senate exceeded the Democrats’ initial expectations, as the party managed to contest and win seats in states where Trump had won by a wide margin in the 2024 presidential election.
The most notable example is Texas, where Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton, whom the U.S. president had personally endorsed. This marks the first Democratic victory in a Senate election in the state since 1988, in a region where Trump had won by a margin of about 14 percentage points two years ago.
A similar surprise occurred in South Carolina, where Democrat Annie Andrews won the race against Republican Darla Graham. In North Carolina, former Governor Roy Cooper defeated Michael Wattley, former chairman of the Republican National Committee, who also had Trump’s support.
Ohio was another major upset, where former Senator Sherrod Brown defeated Republican John Husted, despite the U.S. president’s personal campaign efforts on the latter’s behalf. The Democrats also retained critical seats in Georgia and New Hampshire, with the reelection of John Ossoff and the victory of Chris Pappas, respectively.
Behind the electoral upsets, Reuters correspondents Tim Reed and Trevor Hanikatt identify a broader problem for the U.S. president. Trump returned to the White House in 2024 having expanded his appeal beyond the traditional Republican base, making significant gains among young people, Spanish-speaking voters, and Black men. Two years later, early data suggests that his party is losing a significant portion of that support.
According to preliminary exit polls cited by Reuters, support for the Republicans among voters aged 18 to 29 has dropped to about a quarter, while significant losses are also being recorded among Spanish-speaking voters. Comparisons with 2024 involve different elections, however, the two journalists highlight these shifts as a sign of the weakening of the broader electoral coalition that Trump had built.
The economy appears to be at the center of this discontent. According to an AP poll, about three-quarters of voters view the state of the U.S. economy negatively, while eight in ten say that inflation has caused serious or moderate financial difficulties for their households.
The same survey reveals widespread disappointment with the country’s direction, with about three-quarters of respondents saying they are dissatisfied or angry. The cost of living and government corruption emerged as two of the most important issues influencing the vote, while about six in ten believe that Trump prioritizes his personal interests over those of the country.
This negative sentiment, stemming from economic discontent, is linked to the dashed expectations that had accompanied Trump’s return to the presidency. The U.S. president had promised to tackle inflation; however, according to their analysis, import tariffs and the conflict with Iran have further strained the financial situation of many American households, particularly through rising fuel prices.
The election losses also highlight a second problem for Trump concerning the performance of candidates who had his personal support, despite reservations among Republican officials about their electability.
In Texas, Ken Paxton had defeated longtime Senator John Cornyn in the primary, having secured the president’s support. This choice had caused concern among the Republican leadership, as party officials believed that Paxton would face greater difficulties in the general election.
Similarly, in South Carolina, Trump had endorsed Darlene Graham, despite reservations about her political experience, while in Ohio he had made personal appearances in support of John Husted. The Associated Press describes these defeats as particularly significant for the president, who had staked his personal political capital on the election of these specific candidates.
Trump himself attempted to distance himself from the outcome. In a social media post, he argued that he was not a candidate himself and that, had he run in the race, he would have won by a landslide. His statement came as significant Republican losses were already becoming apparent, despite his intensive personal involvement in the campaign.
The extent of the electoral shift is also reflected in the gubernatorial races. The Democrats scored major victories in Ohio, where Amy Acton defeated Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, as well as in Georgia, where Kisha Lance Bottoms became the first Black woman elected governor of a U.S. state. In Texas, Democrat Gina Inohosa defeated Republican Governor Greg Abbott in yet another major upset.
The Democrats’ gains, however, do not necessarily mean they have secured a new, stable political majority. The Associated Press notes that, despite dissatisfaction with Trump, the Democratic Party continues to face popularity problems. Fewer than half of voters view the party favorably, according to an AP poll, a finding that suggests disapproval of the administration does not necessarily equate to a full restoration of trust in the opposition.
The shifts observed today do not, therefore, predict how the electorate will behave in the 2028 presidential election. They do, however, highlight the difficulties Republicans face in maintaining their expanded electoral base just two years after returning to power.
The shift in the balance of power in Congress will also have direct consequences for the exercise of presidential authority. With the Democrats regaining control of the House of Representatives, the Democrats will be able to take control of congressional committees, launch investigations into the administration, and block the White House from advancing key legislative initiatives.
Gaining control of the Senate will also enable them to block the confirmation of cabinet and judicial appointments, thereby limiting one of the most important tools of presidential power.
The Associated Press notes that the new congressional majority could launch extensive investigations into the administration, with possible proceedings even leading to the impeachment of government officials. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has already presented a plan for the first 100 days, with an emphasis on lowering the cost of living and stricter congressional oversight of the administration.
Regaining control of Congress, however, does not mean that Democrats will be able to implement their own policies unimpeded. Trump will retain the presidential veto and significant executive powers, particularly in trade and foreign policy. At the same time, gaining a congressional majority will create new expectations among voters, who will look for solutions to economic problems—not just opposition to the president.
Trump will remain in the White House for the next two years, but he will now be called upon to govern in the face of a Congress that will be controlled by his political opponents. At the same time, initial post-election analyses point to losses within the electoral coalition that enabled him to return to the presidency in 2024, highlighting a political challenge that extends beyond the distribution of seats and concerns the Republicans’ prospects for the 2028 elections.
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Source: APE-MPE/P. Kasfikis
