An analysis by *The Economist* reveals cracks in Donald Trump’s electoral coalition ahead of the November midterm elections
The electoral coalition that brought Donald Trump back to the White House in 2024 is facing serious challenges.
According to an extensive analysis by The Economist, which was based on a statistical model of 58,000 responses from YouGov polls conducted in 2026, voter dissatisfaction threatens to hand control of Congress to the Democrats in the midterm elections on November 3.
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Disengagement and Losses Among Minority Voters
While Trump’s 2024 victory over Kamala Harris was based on a narrow majority (50% to 48%), his approval ratings have now fallen to historic lows.
One in five voters (20%) who supported him in 2024 now say they are dissatisfied with his performance.
At the same time, Republican voter consolidation is significantly lower than that of the Democrats: only 65% of Trump’s voters plan to vote for a Republican candidate in November, while the corresponding loyalty rate among Harris’s voters reaches 76%.
The largest defections are among young people under 30 and ethnic minorities.
According to the data, 10% of African Americans, 7% of Hispanic voters, and 5% of white voters under 30 who supported Trump now say they are ready to switch to the Democratic Party.
The pressure of economic hardship and the war in Iran
The main factors behind this shift are economic policy and foreign policy adventures.
Despite campaign promises to eliminate inflation, the imposition of tariffs has driven up prices on basic goods such as food and energy.
72% of Americans believe that tariffs have raised prices, while 64% disapprove of the U.S. president’s handling of the issue—figures that are even higher among young people and minorities.
Furthermore, the U.S. war with Iran has further damaged the U.S. president’s image.
An August poll shows that 57% of voters consider the war a mistake, compared to just 25% who approve of it, causing a sharp drop in his popularity even among white, middle-aged voters, who traditionally form the backbone of the Republican base.
The Limits of the Shift
Despite widespread dissatisfaction, the immediate shift of voters toward the Democrats remains limited.
Of the 20% of Trump voters who disapprove of him, one-third say they will vote Republican again, 28% are leaning toward abstaining, and 17% remain undecided.
Thus, although the U.S. president’s net approval rating stands at 19 points below zero among registered voters, the Democrats maintain a lead of just 8 points in voting intentions for Congress, making the shift in the balance of power in the Senate a particularly close race.
Source: in.gr
