Through a web of maneuvers and alliances, Athens and Nicosia are driving a wedge into Ankara’s plans to expand its influence in the Arab world
Strategic moves by all the players in the region are reshaping the landscape on the geopolitical chessboard of the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey is attempting to gradually extend its “Blue Homeland” doctrine to Cyprus as well, by bolstering its military readiness in the occupied territories. This is Turkey’s response to Nicosia’s moves to exploit deposits in its EEZ and strengthen its military cooperation with the U.S., France, and Israel. This decision involves the deployment of additional electronic warfare systems, radar, and anti-tank systems to Pentadaktylos, while the presence of Turkish submarines patrolling around the island has been increased to a 24-hour basis. At the same time, Ankara is escalating its violations of the Nicosia FIR, with flights by Turkish F-16s from Tymbou Airfield now a nearly daily occurrence, as well as the pattern of challenging the status quo. Turkey’s attempt to advance 4 kilometers into the buffer zone at Pyla and the reinforcement of the occupying army’s military positions along the line of confrontation, are highlighted by President Christodoulides in a document submitted to the United Nations.
Nicosia’s Plan
ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΑΡΘΡΑ
Amid a pattern of constant provocations, the Ministry of Defense is seeking a way out of the impasse that has arisen regarding the acquisition of modern main battle tanks. With talks on the transfer of 90 Greek Leopard tanks having fallen through due to their age, Nicosia’s interest has shifted to acquiring Israeli Merkava tanks. However, this endeavor appears to be anything but easy. A key obstacle is the limited production capacity of the Israeli defense industry, coupled with the IDF’s increased needs. The issue is the subject of intensive bilateral discussions at both the highest levels and among the defense ministers of the two countries. On the other hand, Paris maintains its advantage in the Cypriot defense procurement program through SAFE. This includes the purchase of a second batch of H145M attack helicopters, Jaguar armored vehicles, and Akheron anti-tank missiles, while the acquisition of Griffon and Serval armored personnel carriers is also under consideration.
Tzionis’s Journey
Through a web of maneuvers and alliances, Athens and Nicosia are driving a wedge into Ankara’s plans to expand its influence in the Arab world. The signing of the Mecca Pact between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan is already triggering a domino effect of reactions. The defense agreement, which has been described as an “Islamic NATO,” is accelerating the activation of the axis comprising Israel, Cyprus, Greece, the United Arab Emirates, and India, with U.S. lawmakers calling on the Trump administration to push forward the project to connect Israel, Cyprus, and Greece via an electricity grid. A project that Ankara has been threatening to torpedo for years, invoking the narrative of the “Blue Homeland.” In any case, for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the Ottoman plans are not proceeding as he would like. An ongoing headache for Ankara is Saudi Arabia’s veto of Egypt’s accession to the Mecca Pact. This is a country that Turkey is eager to bring into its sphere of influence. Turkey’s recent overtures toward Cairo have taken various forms. Cyprus’s excellent relations with the Arab world were recently reaffirmed with the renewal of the Trilateral Defense Cooperation Agreement between Cyprus, Greece, and Jordan. But the news from Beirut is also not encouraging for the Turkish President. The visit of Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, to the Turkish capital did not lead to a reversal of the Nicosia–Beirut agreement on the delimitation of maritime borders. This was preceded by a lightning-fast trip by the Director of the Cypriot Intelligence Service, Tassos Tzionis, to Beirut to seek clarifications. In any case, Turkey’s goal is to prevent Beirut from participating in multilateral cooperation frameworks with the Republic of Cyprus and Greece.
Threat from the East
And all this while Nicosia is called upon to maintain the balance amid the chaos caused in the region by the Iran-U.S. conflict, with memories of the drone strike in Akrotiri still fresh. This nightmare was reignited by Tehran’s recent warning to Nicosia, delivered by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who, in a phone call with Konstantinos Kompos, called on the Republic of Cyprus not to allow the use of British bases for attacks against Iran. Government sources assure that Cyprus’s air defense remains on full alert. Meanwhile, Greek F-16s and the frigate Elli continue their patrols. For its part, the RAF has deployed the new Protector RG Mk1 drones at Akrotiri, equipped with the advanced Outdragon electronic intelligence system, significantly enhancing intelligence-gathering capabilities in the Eastern Mediterranean. The firepower that has been deployed is considered sufficient to deter any attack, a scenario that, according to assessments, is highly unlikely.
