The power of the United States is not determined solely by its military superiority, its economic influence, or its ability to shape international developments, but depends, in equal measure, on the cohesion of its political system, the trust of its citizens, and the functioning of its democratic institutions. In this light, the midterm elections on November 3, 2026, take on significance that goes far beyond the redistribution of seats in the U.S. Congress.
Donald Trump’s second presidency is marked by a stark contradiction. While he seeks to restore American power through the decisive pursuit of foreign policy, he faces growing domestic opposition. According to a recent Pew Research Center survey, only 30% of Americans approve of the president’s handling of affairs, while 68% disapprove.
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The most significant aspect of this dissent, however, is not reflected in the polls. It is deeply political and geoeconomic. The war with Iran highlighted the limits of military power when it is not accompanied by a clear political strategy and manageable economic consequences. Rising energy prices, uncertainty in international markets, and the burden on American households are turning a foreign military operation into a domestic political problem. It is no coincidence that 65% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the situation in Iran. Herein lies a timeless lesson of international politics: namely, that military superiority does not automatically entail political success, nor does the projection of power ensure social legitimacy.
At the same time, Washington’s economic policy is creating additional contradictions. Trade tariffs, presented as a means of protecting American production, are raising concerns about their impact on prices and purchasing power. A survey by the Council on Foreign Relations shows that 75% of Americans are concerned about the cost of food.
These developments also highlight a second, equally important issue: the functioning of institutional checks and balances. The potential loss of Republican control of one or both chambers of Congress would not merely constitute an electoral defeat but could redefine the relationship between the executive and legislativebranches of government, strengthening congressional oversight and limiting the scope for unilateral policy initiatives. However, a Democratic electoral victory is by no means a foregone conclusion. Polarization, the drawing of electoral districts, and the Republicans’ significant financial advantage keep the race wide open.
For Europe, the outcome has particular geopolitical significance. A U.S. presidency with limited domestic political leeway may have to readjust its priorities, affecting transatlantic cooperation, energy security, and the management of international crises. The key question, therefore, is not only whether Trump will retain control of Congress, but whether the United States can maintain its international influence while its domestic political cohesion is being tested. For the true power of a great power is demonstrated not only by what it can impose on the world, but also by what it can ensure within its own borders, and the most critical issues in this regard are institutional balance, social trust, and democratic accountability.
