A poll by Rai Consultants shows President of the Republic Nicos Christodoulides leading in all scenarios for the 2028 presidential election, which was conducted on behalf of Alpha Cyprus and presented last night on the station’s main newscast. Despite the incumbent President’s lead, however, the race for second place—which leads to the second round of the election—appears particularly close, with Andreas Mavroyiannis and Averof Neophytou recording poll numbers that are close to one another.
Speaking on the Alpha Enimerosi program, the Executive President of Rai Consultants, Olympios Toumazos, analyzed the poll’s findings, explaining that there are five different first-round scenarios, as well as corresponding second-round projections, featuring various combinations of candidates.
ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΑΡΘΡΑ
As he clarified, the names included were determined during the first round of polling, with the aim of also capturing the impact of Anita Dimitriou’s withdrawal from the internal party process for the DISY nomination. He explained that for this reason, certain names that had been discussed in public discourse in recent days were not included.
SEE ALSO: Alpha Poll: Christodoulides Leads in All Scenarios for the 2028 Presidential Election, Amid a Fluid Political Landscape
Christodoulides ranges from 26% to 30%
According to Mr. Toumazos, Nikos Christodoulides is polling between 26% and 30% in the first round, depending on the scenario considered. These figures remain quite high, though they are noticeably lower compared to the corresponding period leading up to the 2023 presidential election.
- Andreas Mavrogiannis reports figures ranging from 22% to 24%, which, as the head of Rai Consultants noted, are roughly double those of the corresponding period during the previous presidential race.
- For his part, Averof Neophytou is polling between 19% and 20%, also with numbers roughly double those he recorded during the corresponding period in 2023.
Commenting on the differences between the candidates, Mr. Toumazos clarified that, despite Nikos Christodoulides’ lead, the gap between him and the others must be evaluated in light of the margin of error, which stands at 3.7%.
“As far as first place is concerned, the President has the lead. As for second place—which means advancing to the second round—that’s where we have a real battle,” he noted.
PART ONE: RAI POLL: Citizens Evaluate the President and His Work
Averof and Christodoulides Gain Ground After Annita’s Withdrawal
Of particular interest is the comparison of the two rounds of the poll, before and after the withdrawal of Annita Dimitriou’s candidacy. As Olympios Toumazos noted, an analysis of the numbers shows that the DISY president’s withdrawal bolstered both the candidacy of Averof Neophytou and that of Nikos Christodoulides.
At the same time, the poll shows a difference in momentum between the two candidates who were under discussion during the DISY nomination process. Specifically, Averof Neophytou is polling at around 20%, compared to approximately 9% for Giorgos Pamboridis. Mr. Toumazos noted that, based on current data, Neophytou’s candidacy has better prospects for election.
In the second round, however, the scenario with Giorgos Pamporidis as the candidate shows 32%, compared to 42% for Andreas Mavrogiannis. He did not rule out the possibility that Mr. Pamboridis’s numbers might change if he secures the DISY nomination, as this particular poll was conducted before the party’s final decision.
PART TWO: Alpha Poll: Clear Lead for Averof Over Pamboridis—How Will Christodoulides’ Voters Vote?
Odysseas, ELAM, and Nikolas Papadopoulos
Among the other findings, the performance of Odysseas Michaelides stands out, as he registers support ranging from 7% to 11% in the scenarios examined. According to Mr. Toumazos, these figures are roughly double those secured by Alma in the 2026 parliamentary elections. Although, based on current data, he does not appear to be securing a spot in the second round, his presence may play a decisive role in its outcome.
Similarly, Christos Christou of ELAM is polling between 6% and 9%, with the head of Rai Consultants noting that the party’s potential decision to field its own candidate could decisively influence the balance of power in the second round.
Special mention was also made of the candidacy of Nikolas Papadopoulos, who is polling at around 5%, which, according to Mr. Toumazos, part of Nikos Christodoulides’ electoral momentum.
The poll also included John Christodoulou, who, despite not having officially announced his intention to run for president, is polling at 4%. As Mr. Toumazos explained, his potential candidacy appears to be drawing votes from across the political spectrum and not exclusively from ELAM.
AKEL and its alliances will determine the balance of power
AKEL’s decision on which candidate to support, as well as potential party alliances, are expected to be crucial to the final outcome of the election.
Mr. Toumazos pointed out that the delay in officially endorsing Andreas Mavroyiannis during the previous election, based on an analysis of the results, to have cost him at least two to three percentage points.
At the same time, he noted that the current poll numbers cannot be taken for granted, as potential alliances could significantly alter the electoral arithmetic, with a candidate’s momentum being influenced by the support they receive from other parties.
He noted that the poll is a useful exercise for political parties to evaluate potential coalitions and partnerships, clarifying, however, that none of the individuals included in the scenarios has, so far, definitively confirmed their candidacy. Finally, he noted that even Nikos Christodoulides himself has not officially announced that he will seek a second term, while DISY’s decisions on its nomination and the moves by the other parties are expected in the coming days.
Interest in the poll and a low percentage of undecided voters
Referring to the survey’s characteristics, Olympios Toumazos revealed that the response rate stood at 28.4%, meaning that nearly one in three citizens who received a phone call ultimately participated in the poll. At the same time, the undecided vote stood at approximately 14%, a percentage significantly lower than that recorded during the same period prior to the 2023 presidential election, when it exceeded 20%.
