U.S. Vice President Jay D. Vance attributes the Republicans’ defeat in the midterm elections to the war, arguing that a significant portion of the voters who had supported Donald Trump in 2024 chose the Democrats this time around.
In a lengthy post, Vance analyzed the data available to the Republican campaign staff before the election, noting that voter turnout among their supporters was not the main problem. Instead, he said, many of those who went to the polls had decided to turn against the party.
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“The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night,” he emphasized, noting that the ongoing conflict, combined with economic pressures and dissatisfaction with U.S. foreign policy, determined voting behavior.
“Our voters went to the polls, but
they didn’t vote for us,”
The U.S. vice president explained that data analysts on the Republican campaign staff were closely monitoring the composition of the electorate, trying to determine whether it was similar enough to that of 2024 to ensure another victory.
Although the polls predicted a landslide victory for the Democrats, the turnout figures were cause for optimism. In some states, Republican turnout was satisfactory; in others, as he pointed out, it was exceptionally high; and nowhere was it disastrous.
Vance even described a conversation he had with one of the most experienced data analysts he knows, whom he asked whether the data meant that the Republicans could pull off a major electoral upset.
The answer, as he reports, was no. “We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data tells us that many of those who voted for Trump and Vance in 2024 are angry and intend to vote for our opponents. Our voters are turning out at the polls, but they may not vote for us,” the analyst told him.
According to the U.S. vice president, this assessment proved prophetic. In Florida, for example, the Republicans had a nine-percentage-point lead in the composition of the electorate over the Democrats, just a few points lower than in 2024.
The Four Causes of the Electoral Shift
Vance emphasized that in the coming period there will be intense intra-party debates over the causes of the defeat. Citing a pollster—whom he described as one of the most capable people he knows in the political arena— he noted that the pollster had warned him the day before that Republicans would lose the national congressional election by a margin of 13 percentage points.
“I was feeling pessimistic, but even I was shocked by that prediction,” he said. According to Vance, this particular pollster had identified that many of Trump’s 2024 voters were dissatisfied and planning to support the Democrats.
When asked what might bring them back to the Republican Party, their answers centered on four issues:
– Ending the war.
– Addressing the cost of living and inflation.
– A return to the “America First” policy.
– Changing the United States’ relationship with Israel.
The U.S. vice president added that these four responses represented nearly the entirety of the positions held by those who had drifted away from the Republicans.
“Our voters went to the polls. And the four reasons above explain why many of them voted for Democrats,” he noted, adding that the survey in question came from a pollster who accurately predicted the outcome.
At the same time, he referred to Rachel Campos-Duffy, who had faced criticism on Monday for advocating a diplomatic solution to the conflict.
“In the end, her political advice proved to be correct,” Vance said, adding that she is also an exceptional person.
Vance went on to say that in the coming months, attempts will be made to present misleading interpretations of the election defeat, particularly by members of the political establishment.
“Everyone knows why we lost.”
Returning to the election results, the vice president insists that the main cause of the defeat was the war, arguing that even Donald Trump himself acknowledged this the previous night.
“If you want to argue that it was worth it, that it was worth losing the Senate for the next six years, then go ahead. Argue that it was a price worth paying. Whether you agree or disagree, at least that’s an honest position,” he said.
“But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest discussion about how to move forward from here must start from that point,” he added.
Concluding his post, Vance expressed optimism about the future of the U.S. and addressed disillusioned Republican voters: “To those who are angry and want to say, ‘We told you so,’ you’re right—you did tell us so,” he admitted, urging them to channel that frustration into electing Republicans who share their political views.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we’re going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there’s going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026
