The international market is facing a protracted energy and shipping crisis, as the ongoing conflict between the U.S.and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz is driving up the cost of liquefied natural gas (LNG), keeps tanker freight rates high, and heightens uncertainty regarding the safety of maritime transport.
According to estimates by Rystad Energy, the additional cost for European LNG imports in 2026 is expected to reach at least $12 billion, while the shipping brokerage firm Poten & Partners warns that the conflict may remain unresolved for several years, with periodic attacks on commercial vessels, ongoing sanctions, and temporary agreements to maintain oil flows.
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Rystad Energy estimates that the total cost of global LNG imports will rise from $217.8 billion, according to pre-war estimates, to at least $256.3 billion in 2026, despite a reduction in imported volumes of 60.7 million metric tons.
The company’s modeling is based on the scenario that LNG deliveries from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates will not be available from March through the end of the year due to ongoing attacksagainst commercial vessels in the region.
Europe is expected to experience the largest cost increase, at least 18%, despite the projected 24-million-metric-ton decline in demand.
At the same time, it is estimated that 20.6 million metric tons of the total 24.7 million metric tons of Qatari LNG scheduled for delivery to the European market prior to the outbreak of the conflict will be lost.
Europe’s dependence on the spot market
A significant contributing factor is Europe’s high dependence on the spot market, through which it sources approximately 65% of its imported LNG volumes.
According to Rystad Energy, the average price of LNG in Europe has risen by 47%, while in East Asia the corresponding increase in total import costs is limited to 9.7%.This difference is mainly attributed to the structure of supply contracts.
In East Asia, 82% of long-term LNG contracts are linked to oil prices, limiting direct exposure to sharp fluctuations in spot prices.
Christoph Halser, senior analyst for Natural Gas and LNG Research at Rystad Energy, points out that the crisis highlights a fundamental weakness in energy security: diversifying pricing mechanisms does not necessarily guarantee the physical availability of shipments.As he emphasizes, importers must assess not only the risk of price increases but also the reliability of transport routes and the ability to replace lost volumes.
Poten: The Scenario of a Never-Ending Conflict
At the same time, the shipping brokerage firm Poten & Partners, in an analysis titled “Neither Peace Nor War” , examines the possibility that the U.S.-Iran standoff could continue for years without a definitive diplomatic resolution.
The shipping brokerage firm notes that, despite expectations of a deal being reached within the next three to six months, the current impasse cannot be ruled out, with periodic attacks, ongoing sanctions, and negotiations that fail to result in a comprehensive agreement.
According to Poten, a key factor in the crisis is the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, which has effectively halted Tehran’s crude oil exports, cutting off a key source of foreign exchange revenue.
The company also estimates that Iran appears to have depleted the oil reserves it held in floating storage facilities in Asia, primarily off the coast of Malaysia.
At the same time, Tehran continues to make the lifting of the U.S. blockade a precondition for the restoration of unimpeded navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, while Washington’s stance remains uncertain.
According to Poten, the timing and nature of U.S. President Donald Trump’s next moves may also be influenced by the November 3 midterm elections in the U.S., though the direction of those decisions cannot be predicted.
High Freight Rates Despite Turmoil
Despite the ongoing military crisis, Poten estimates that a protracted conflict does not necessarily mean a paralysis of the oil and tanker markets.
Trade flows have already adapted to the new conditions, with tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz via a corridor under U.S. protection and other vessels transshipping cargo in the Gulf of Oman.
According to the company, oil exports from the Middle East have rebounded significantly in recent months, demonstrating that the market is seeking alternative ways to maintain commercial activity.Under these circumstances, the continuation of the crisis could keep tanker freight rates high, as operational difficulties, additional costs, and risk premiums persist.
However, Poten points out that higher freight revenue comes with serious risks, particularly for the crews of ships operating in the region.
128 confirmed attacks
The deterioration in security conditions is also reflected in the latest data from the International Maritime Organization (IMO), according to which, as of November 3, 2026, 128 confirmed incidents involving ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Middle East region had been recorded, resulting in the deaths of 24 seafarers.
Poten emphasizes that the ongoing attacks on commercial vessels pose a serious threat to maritime workers, who are called upon to keep international energy shipments running amid the conflict.
The prospect of a protracted crisis thus creates a dual reality for international shipping: on the one hand, it increases the cost of energy supplies and places a burden on economies that depend on imports, while on the other, it maintains conditions that can support high freight rates for tankers—though at a significant cost to crew safety and the stability of global trade.
Source: APE-MPE
