A never-ending play, with poorly acted roles and no substance whatsoever
I get the impression that when it comes to the Cyprus issue, we’re watching a theater of the absurd. A never-ending show, with poorly played roles and no substance whatsoever. I don’t know if a trilateral meeting between António Guterres, Christodoulides, and Erchurman will take place (or has taken place) over the weekend. However, I see no reason—other than for public relations purposes—to consider this even a small step forward. Let me explain:
• Given the current geopolitical climate, achieving substantial progress on the Cyprus issue must be considered virtually impossible. Turkey has no real incentive to make any moves, especially since its conflict with Israel has ramifications for Cyprus as well. As for Israel, it would not want any kind of upheaval in Cyprus, since the current state of affairs suits it perfectly.
ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΑΡΘΡΑ
• On the international stage, there is so much uncertainty and a process of power realignment that no one is seeking the “golden example of peace” that was the goal in other eras. As for Europe, in which we have invested so much, it faces so many open fronts and challenges that it is doubtful whether it can spare the time and resources for the Cyprus issue.
• The domestic players—President Christodoulides and Tufan Erhurman—are in election mode (as are Greece and Turkey), with the result that everyone’s energy is being channeled elsewhere.
A trilateral meeting, therefore, would merely be a matter of saving face. Antonio Guterres, who has been nearly crushed by the crosscurrents of international conflicts, would maintain his image as a peacemaker until the very last moment of his departure. Tufan Erhurman to present something to the Turkish Cypriot supporters of the solution who propelled him to power and who now fully identify him with Ankara’s policy. And, of course, President Christodoulides will return to Cyprus with a strengthened narrative of “significant developments,” which will influence the pre-election landscape. Averof will cite the “albeit small progress” to postpone his plans (which is what he wants), and current events will once again bring the Cyprus issue to the forefront of discussion, with the parties—necessarily—supporting the President in the event of any prospects for progress.
But why should a trilateral meeting in New York be so valuable when the trilateral meeting in Cyprus, attended by the UN Secretary-General, yielded nothing tangible? Why should this trilateral meeting be considered a substantive step when it is clear that the two leaders have failed to achieve anything concrete in the interim? And why should we assume that the situation will change even if the two leaders agree on some kind of memorandum of understanding in New York? The big question that demands a clear answer right now is whether the two sides are still operating within the same framework and adhering to the same philosophy for resolving the Cyprus issue. And whether there is a genuine willingness to take more substantive steps.
There are three months left until António Guterres steps down from his position as UN Secretary-General. From then on, things will be much more difficult. A President who believes that within this timeframe there is a possibility of “historic developments,” devotes all his energy to this goal and does not get sidetracked by plans related to the 2028 presidential election. Because no matter how much Mr. Christodoulides states that he has not yet decided on his candidacy, everyone knows very well that the presidential campaign has been in full swing for quite some time now.
At the time of writing, the “crucial weekend” in New York had not yet concluded. Of course, there is always the second possibility: that absolutely nothing will come of New York. And I wonder:
• On Monday, will Averof Neophytou declare an end to efforts to resolve the Cyprus issue and announce his candidacy? He himself set the tone for the weekend, even shaping the broader atmosphere.
• Will President Christodoulides return once again empty-handed? And how will he justify his statements about “significant developments” in New York?
• Will the opposition find an opportunity to open up the Cyprus issue as another front against the President of the Republic?
• And so, all together, will they manage to stall for time until Guterres steps down?
A trilateral meeting in New York would suit everyone. After all, who remembers that the goal was a five-party meeting that would resume the talks “from where they left off in Crans-Montana”? Or who remembers that we were talking about a “strategic agreement” that would pave the way for the “settlement plan” that António Guterres was supposed to bring by the end of the year? Or who remembers that Turkey would cooperate because we would secure something for it in Europe? Now we’re settling for much less, which nevertheless maintains the impression that something is happening. Even Averof Neophytou, who had declared himself willing to support the President if he secured a “strategic agreement” or initiate “substantive negotiations” on the Cyprus issue, is now waiting for “even a small step” from New York … so as not to announce his candidacy.
Even the much-touted documentation of points of convergence is delayed, and no one knows if or when it will be completed. But even if it is completed, it is certain that a new round of behind-the-scenes discussions will begin between the two sides regarding whether they agree or disagree with the record that the United Nations will compile.
Among the many but meaningless scenarios surrounding the Cyprus issue, one thing is certain: We are definitively entering the long pre-election period leading up to the 2028 presidential election, and everyone will now adjust their tactics according to their ambitions and strategic maneuvers. This does not mean, however, that the “Cyprus drama” will come to an end. It will simply remain a drama with poorly played roles and a meaningless script.
