The midterm elections, which will take place two years before the end of his presidency, could prove decisive for Trump, according to an in-depth analysis by the BBC.
These are the elections that will determine who controls Congress, which come at a difficult time for the Republican Party, as an overwhelming majority of voters say the issue that concerns them most is the cost of living. Food and fuel prices have skyrocketed, partly due to the aggressive tariffs imposed by Trump and the unpopular war with Iran, a fact that citizens will take into account when they head to the polls.
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Trump, who has dominated American politics for the past decade and returned to the White House after his victory in the 2024 election, has held dozens of campaign rallies, asking voters to support his party as if he were the candidate himself. “I ask you, please, to pretend that I’m on the ballot,” he said at a rally last month, repeating the request in Iowa on Sunday, a state traditionally considered a Republican stronghold. However, the 80-year-old U.S. president continues to be an electoral asset for the Republican Party at a time when his approval ratings have plummeted following a war thatand while Americans’ wallets are taking a serious hit?
The price of diesel, which was $3.75 per gallon before the war began in February, reached a record high of $6.52 in September. “I just sent my son on a road trip across the country; he called me from every state and told me the price of gas,” a voter in Iowa told me. “And I’d say, ‘My God, that’s awful.’” At the same time, inflation rose from 3% when Trump took office to 3.7%, while economists estimate it would have been lower without the extensive tariffs.
Republicans are concerned that this economic situation has left them vulnerable in electoral races that were traditionally considered “safe,” in states such as Texas, Ohio, and Kansas. The party has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign ads. The increased spending in Kansas, particularly for the Senate race, indicates that Republicans realize the party is in a difficult position, as Carrie Dunn, editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report, an organization that analyzes election campaigns and races.
As Stephen Hawkins, research director at the polling firm More in Common, points out, states that Trump won by a margin of 10, 12, or 15 points in 2024 now show a real chance of a Democratic victory.
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Voters on the issues—and Trump
Reporting from Iowa, a BBC journalist spoke with voters, asking whether Trump’s presence makes it more or less likely for citizens to supportthe Republicans. The answers were revealing: “Given the current climate, I’d say it’s actually less likely, believe it or not. As a Republican myself, I believe it may ultimately be counterproductive,” said one. “I think it definitely discourages voters; there’s no doubt about that. At the same time, I believe it’s likely boosting the Democrats’ momentum to a level we don’t always see—and that’s precisely because it’s Donald Trump,” said another. “He’s dragged us into a war. Food prices and costs are high—sky-high—and gas prices have skyrocketed,” noted a third.
“That’s the essence of this election. Many voters, even in states that traditionally support Republicans, are facing economic hardships, and polls suggest they may want to express that at the polls on Tuesday. However, it is overly simplistic to assume that this backdrop—with the war, tariffs, and skyrocketing prices—will lead to a landslide victory for the Democrats in the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the gubernatorial elections,” the BBC notes, going on to cite poll data showing that Trump’s approval rating hovers around 38%, though the Democrats’ numbers are not particularly high either. A telling example is a nationwide NBC poll published on Sunday, according to which only 29% of voters have a favorable view of the Democratic Party.
What’s Happening with the Democrats—Scenarios if They Win the House, a Tough Battle for the Senate
The BBC goes on to analyze what’s happening in the Democratic camp. It explains that the party is already setting its sights on the 2028 presidential election, in which it will need to rally around a single candidate. This is not expected to be easy due to internal disagreements, which became apparent during this election cycle in states such as Michigan. The results will provide lessons for the 2028 election, but critical questions remain. Can they actually win in Texas? Can they attract voters from rural areas that are strong Republican strongholds? And will some of their rising stars manage to live up to the expectations that have been built up around them? “If the answer to some of these questions is no, the party will have a lot to think about and reevaluate over the next year. And the post-election assessment is likely to be particularly unpleasant,” the BBC notes.
The report notes elsewhere that even when an incumbent president is more popular than Trump, his party usually loses seats in midterm elections. This fact, combined with the most recent polls, reinforces the Democrats’ belief that they will at least manage to win the House of Representatives.
What will happen in that case? If the Democrats win the House of Representatives, they will be able to block Trump’s legislative initiatives, launch investigations into his administration, and even consider impeaching cabinet members, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegesez considered a likely target due to the war in Iran.
Taking control of the Senate, however, will be more difficult. The Democrats need four more seats to gain control, and if they lose the one in Michigan that they currently hold, they will need five. The decisive races are expected to take place in states such as Michigan, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Maine, Alaska, and North Carolina.
Polls and Trump’s Reaction to the Election Results
In the final part of its analysis, the BBC highlights reservations about the polls, as they have in the past overestimated the Democrats’ strength and underestimated Trump’s electoral appeal. However, if the projections prove to be close to reality and the Democrats make significant gains, the Republicans may suffer defeats even in states that are traditionally their strongholds.
At the same time, it remains to be seen how Trump will react to any painful electoral losses. The U.S. president has repeatedly questioned the integrity and security of the electoral process, and he is likely to do so again, either during the vote count or after the results are announced.
However, this election marks an extremely important moment for Americans, many of whom hope to see real change over the next two years, according to the BBC. For both parties, this will be the final electoral test before the 2028 presidential election, which will determine the shape and character of the political landscape in the post-Trump era. For the U.S. president himself, the result will serve as an assessment of his administration to date and the overall trajectory of his party. The key question, however—as Trump seeks to shape his political legacy over the next two years—is—to what extent a change in control of Congress, which he has largely bypassed to date, could actually limit his power as president.
Source: iefimerida.gr
